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Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - DECEMBER 09: T.Y. Hilton #13 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball during the NFL game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 9, 2012 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 12, 2013

Indianapolis has beaten Tennessee in eight of their last nine meetings and covered the spread three times in a row.

After an embarrassing loss to the St. Louis Rams, the Colts will try to bounce back on Thursday night when they visit the Titans, a team coming off its own embarrassing defeat to Jacksonville.

 

Point Spread: The Titans opened as two-point underdogs. The total was 41.5.

Odds Shark Computer: 23.8-21.2 Colts

 

Why the Colts Can Cover the Spread

Indy got shocked by St. Louis last week, but it's still 17-8 SU and 16-9 ATS with Andrew Luck at quarterback. The Colts also have yet to lose back-to-back games in a season-and-a-half with Luck.

In fact, Indy is 7-0 both SU and ATS following a loss during the Luck era.

The Titans struggle in divisional action (2-9 ATS) while Odds Shark notes that the Colts are riding a 14-3 SU streak as favorites.

 

Why the Titans Can Cover the Spread

Tennessee is again without quarterback Jake Locker. According to Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com, the signal-caller suffered a foot injury on Sunday and is out for the year.

With that said, backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is perfectly capable. Also, while the Titans are a bit pedestrian on offense, their defense ranks ninth overall and eighth vs. the pass.

While Tennessee lost twice to the Colts last year, it led both of those games in the fourth quarter.

 

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is predicting an Indy victory and cover and expects this game to play OVER the total. These two teams played two close games last year, with the Colts winning by scores of 19-13 (in overtime) and 27-23.

By the numbers, these two teams are fairly similar.

However, Indy seems to win close games while Tennessee doesn't. Go with the computer on this one.

 

Trends

Colts are 14-3 SU in their past 17 games as road favorites.

Titans are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 divisional games.

 

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow the site on Twitter for injury and line movement updates.

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