RotoExperts.com Phoenix Preview: Fantasy NASCAR Numbers and More

Scott Engel by Correspondent Written on April 16, 2009
FORT WORTH, TX - APRIL 05:  Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Kobalt Tools Chevrolet, races Marcos Ambrose, driver of the #47 Clorox Toyota, during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Samsung 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on April 5, 2009 in Fort Worth, Texas.  (Photo by John Harrelson/Getty Images) (Photo by John Harrelson/Getty Images)

After a week off, Jeff Gordon may not have much more time in the spotlight after his win at Texas. All numbers point to teammate Jimmie Johnson being the dominant driver at Phoenix International Raceway this week, making him a must-start in tiered and salary cap leagues. You simply have to anchor your lineup with Johnson if you can do it.

Johnson is gunning for his fourth consecutive win at Phoenix, and it will be difficult to deny him. The last driver to win four consecutive races? Yep, Johnson, who turned the trick at Lowe’s Motor Speedway from 2004 to 2005. In his win at the site last November, Johnson posted a near-perfect Driver Rating of 149.9. He led 217 of 313 laps and had 66 of the Fastest Laps Run. Since 2005, covering the past eight races at Phoenix, Johnson has owned the key Loop Data categories.

Since ’05, Johnson leads all drivers at Phoenix in Driver Rating (122.0), Average Running Position (5.0), Fastest Laps Run (266), Average Green-Flag Speed (123.719) and Laps in the Top 15 (2,383, or 95.4 percent). He has notched nine Top 10 finishes and six Top 5s in 11 starts at the site.

“There’s not really anything I can put my finger on,” Johnson said. We’ve just been able to get the car comfortable for me and I’ve just been able to get around the track. I don’t really go into a race thinking about stats.” Fantasy owners do, though, and they’ll lock onto Johnson for sure this week.

Gordon has a win and 15 Top 10s in 20 Phoenix starts, so he should be a strong contender for a Top-5 finish and is a good bet to maintain his lead in the Sprint Cup standings, even if he doesn’t push Johnson for the win. His DR of 100.3 since '05 at Phoenix is only fifth-best among current drivers, and his ARP of 9.8 is fourth-best.

Johnson may get more of a challenge from Richard Childress Racing Drivers this week. The RCR cars feature a few drivers that are among a select group that may perform better than they have so far in 2009.

Kevin Harvick (2006 sweep) and Jeff Burton have won back-to-back races at Phoenix in the past. Harvick and Burton haven’t been among the better fantasy choices so far in 2009, but this is a good site to gamble on them.

Harvick has two wins, three Top 5s and six Top 10s in 12 Phoenix starts.  Since ’05, he also ranks second among all drivers in DR (105.4), ARP (7.9) and Laps in the Top 15 (2,113, or 84.6 percent). Burton has 11 Top 10s in 19 Phoenix starts. He isn’t a prime figure in recent Loop Data categories, but you have to like him for a Top 10 finish, and he may even lead some laps.

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written on April 16, 2009 Preview/Prediction

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