Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 28-5 overall, 19-1 in Sun Belt regular season (first place)
Record in Last 10 Games: 9-1
Last Game: Florida International (L 61-57)
RPI / SOS: 29 / 134
Best Wins: Ole Miss 65-62, at Central Florida 75-61, at Florida International 66-64
Worst Losses: At Arkansas State 66-60, Florida International (N) 61-57, at Akron 82-77
Why They're on the Bubble: Conference tournaments are brutally unfair. The Blue Raiders have been a very good team all season but just couldn't get it done against FIU on March 10. Because they play in the Sun Belt, they might miss the NCAA tournament
Chances at NCAA Bid: The Blue Raiders got back into the fold essentially the same way Gonzaga got to the top of the ladder—they went undefeated during a stretch of time in which everyone ahead of them dropped like flies. Granted, they haven't played any games since last Sunday, but they look all the better for it.
Also similar to Gonzaga, now that they've made it here, we have to ask whether they actually deserve it. I obviously believe that they do. The RPI is very nice, and you have to respect a minor conference team that had the sixth toughest nonconference schedule in the country. Hate on the Sun Belt all you want, but they went out of their way to schedule quality opponents, and ended up going 5-3 against the RPI Top 150 before their conference season began.
However—and feel free to call me a skeptic—you have to wonder whether the potential ratings/attendance would come into consideration for the play-in games in Dayton. Are you tuning in to watch MTSU battle Boise State? Perhaps, but you're more likely to tune in if Kentucky is involved, aren't you?
Potential conspiracy theories aside, the Blue Raiders did enough on the court throughout the season to get in, and I'd say they have a 50 percent chance of doing so.