Last weekend I wrote an article that looked at the betting favorites for the 2012 Australian Open men's singles tournament. I would now like to update the odds, highlight the changes, and discuss the news and results that have lead to the changes in the past week.
On Christmas Day, the odds for the "Big Four" were as follows in the betting market for the 2012 Aussie:
- Novak Djokovic: +250 (5/2) with Victor Chandler
- Roger Federer: +300 (3/1) with Blue Square
- Rafael Nadal: +500 (5/1) with Bodog
- Andy Murray: +600 (6/1) with Bodog
Those best-prices have changed as the odds on the "Big Four" are now as follows (best prices according to the sportsbooks listed at oddspreview.com):
- Djokovic: +162 (13/8) with Coral
- Federer: +350 (7/2) with Stan James
- Murray: +600 (6/1) with Bodog
- Nadal: +600 (6/1) with Ladbrokes
Djokovic's odds have shortened, in no small part due to his exhibition victory in Abu Dhabi over the last few days. The world No. 1 creamed both Federer and David Ferrer at the event to end the 2011 calendar year in style.
By the same brush, Federer's odds lengthened following his straight sets defeat to Djokovic. The Swiss Maestro's last Grand Slam win came at Melbourne Park as he won the 2010 Aussie. The current world No. 3 will have to play better than he did in Abu Dhabi if he is to win back some public confidence.
Nadal is no longer the outright third favorite to win the Australian Open; he is now a co-third favorite along with Andy Murray. Nadal did not have much in his match against David Ferrer in Abu Dhabi from a few days ago and there are increasing talks of a shoulder problem for the world No. 2.
Who will win the 2012 Australian Open?
Nadal could be taking time off due to the shoulder problem following the Australian Open. With that out in the open you have to wonder if the Spaniard might be tempted to retire from a match in Melbourne Park if his injury becomes bothersome there.
Murray was idle this week although he will be active in the ATP Brisbane tournament soon. The Scot did recently announce that his full-time coach is now Ivan Lendl however that move alone would probably not win many bets in the Australian Open market.
The peripheral favorites to win at Melbourne Park are Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer. Ferrer played so well at last season's Australian Open, where he defeated Nadal, that you have to wonder if he is now a little under-rated in the event.
Betting odds on Ferrer are scattered all over the place. All sportsbooks make the world No. 5 a longshot however the range is significant as Bwin price Ferrer at +2900 (29/1) while Bodog have him at +8000 (80/1).
While most would agree that Ferrer is a peripheral threat to win the Australian Open, surely Bodog currently have the Spaniard under-rated.
The draw for the 2012 Australian Open will be released on January 13th and at this time these are my updated favorites: