2012 NFL Mock Draft: Boom or Bust Players Who Aren't Worth the Risk

The NFL draft is all about value versus need.

On draft day this debate, more often than not, dominates the war room.

Potential is a dangerous word and can sometimes cause even more problems than anything else. Drafting solely based on potential is even more dangerous. Whether it be character concerns, health issues or simply a football related issue, "boom or bust" selections are not for every team.

Here are this year's biggest "boom or bust" players not worth the early risk. (Heads up, I've already dropped many of them on my board).

*Draft order determined by combination of current record and projected finish.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-13): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Can't-miss prospect who will be No. 1 overall pick regardless of team.

2. St. Louis Rams (2-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Consensus No. 2 prospect who makes Rams better immediately.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Consensus No. 3 prospect who makes Vikes better immediately.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Big-time playmaker for a team lacking exactly that.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

A reach, but not a "boom or bust" because he'll work for it.

6. Cleveland Browns (4-11): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Top running back prospect with complete skill set.

7. Miami Dolphins (5-10): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Close, but not going to pull trigger on RG3 as a "B-o-B" prospect. Has too much to like.

8. Washington Redskins (5-10): Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

Definite reach, but necessity forces Washington's hand. May never be elite and teams know that.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-9): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Solid technician and No. 2 tackle on the draft board.

10. Carolina Panthers (6-9): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

The senior Tar Heel did not have the year he wanted after breaking out a year ago. At 6'6", 278 pounds, he has the size and overall potential to be an elite player in the NFL some day.

There are a variety of problems, though. For starters, Coples didn't always work hard this year. He spent time against a lot of double teams, but he didn't consistently work to beat them. If he isn't doing it in college, what makes us believe he'll do it in the pros?

He's a positional tweener. He was better inside at tackle last year, but projects as an end in the NFL.

He also isn't an elite athlete, so his potential is tied to his desire to work hard. He won't physically dominate in the NFL by athleticism alone so he has to work for it.

Coples will still find a home in the first round, but he's already slipping on boards for various reasons.

11. Buffalo Bills (6-9): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Solid right tackle who could be a left tackle in the correct system. Great feet.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (7-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Big, athletic touchdown-catching machine with a lot to like. Needs to keep in shape, though.

13. Seattle Seahawks (7-8): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Big man played his way up draft board this year and lack of elite players at position puts him even further up the board.

14. San Diego Chargers (7-8): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Complete and solid corner prospect who does everything well.

15. Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

A bit of a reach to some, but the Bulldog is always getting after it.

16. Chicago Bears (7-8): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

One of the top lineman left on the board.

17. Tennessee Titans (8-7): Vontaze Burfict, LB, ASU

The epitome of "boom or bust", Burfict may very well be back at school next year.

The 6'3", 255-pound linebacker is a freak athlete with questionable on-field antics. He's nasty and fiery but can hurt his team as much as he can help at times.

He's also undisciplined and not overly instinctive, which means he has to make up for it with recognition and discipline. Obviously, this doesn't always bode well for him.

Burfict could very well be a great linebacker, but he could also faze out quickly. He needs to grow up and teams will be careful to not take him too high.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

No. 2 running back prospect in the draft with great speed.

19. New York Jets (8-7): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Draft's most dominating interior lineman.

20. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

Supremely productive and instinctive linebacker with little-to-no bust factor.

21. Detroit Lions (10-5): David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

Bit of a reach, but the Hokies running back fills a need and has very good versatility out of the backfield.

22. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

This is was obviously the easiest pick in this draft class.

Jenkins, a former Florida standout, was thrown off the Gators last spring after he opted to stay in school. He wound up at North Alabama and kept his first round hopes alive.

Many believe he's legitimately matured from his experience away from Gainesville, but Jenkins' off-field incidents aren't the only concerns (although they are the biggest).

The 5'10", 180-pound defensive back is very instinctive and damn quick. He can make plays with the ball in his hands and is around the ball a lot. But he can be beat as he likes to jump routes early. He's also coming off a year against competition nothing like what he faced in the SEC.

Everything with Jenkins is a question mark and taking him too early is not a solid answer. He should still find a home in the first round.

23. Denver Broncos (8-7): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

Super-versatile d-lineman with size and ability.

24. New York Giants (8-7): Zach Brown, OLB, UNC

The second Tar Heel on this list is basically the opposite of his teammate, Coples.

Zach Brown is a superior athlete with remarkable speed. He is, however, undersized for the position.

At only 6'2", 230 pounds, he's barely the size of a big safety, let alone an outside backer.

The Giants need linebacker help as bad as any team in the league, and also struck gold with another super-athlete a few years ago in Jason Pierre-Paul.

They'd have to work a similar type of magic with Brown to get the most out of him. There is a chance he could max out as a situational player only, which is why he falls down the board.

25. Houston Texans (10-5): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Complete safety prospect with size and instincts to contribute right away.

26. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

Massive lineman prospect with versatility to play guard or tackle.

27. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 9-5): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Some scouts or experts would actually rank Jeffery ahead of Justin Blackmon in this year's class.

At 6'4", 230 pounds, it is hard to argue with that. But Jeffery's size and potential are the only positive things he has going for him.

The Gamecocks receiver had a bad year in 2011. Some of that can be attributed to the struggles SC had at quarterback, but Jeffery should still have been better. 

With his size and overall ability, he should dominate nearly everyone he lines up across from. That hasn't been the case, and it shows.

He could be an elite receiver that can take over games if he wants. He could also be just another guy with great size that can't separate and never truly work hard enough to be great.

He could be a top 10 pick, but there are safer options and selecting him before the top 20 is a genuine risk.

28. New England Patriots (via NO 11-3): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

Experienced pass rusher with good physical tools and intangibles.

29. Baltimore Ravens (11-4): Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama

Big, athletic inside linebacker with speed and tenacity to take over one day in Baltimore.

30. San Francisco 49ers (12-3): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Speedy receiver with potential to develop into a complete playmaker. At worst he becomes home run threat in rookie season.

31. New England Patriots (12-3): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

Arguably the most versatile player in the draft, Sanu's size (6'2", 215 pounds) and development are extremely encouraging.

32. Green Bay Packers (14-1): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

Athletic, pass-rushing linebacker with good upside. Could go higher than this.