Pac-12 Basketball: Buying or Selling Each Team's NCAA Tournament Chances

In less than a week, Pac-12 teams will enter conference play with a sigh of relief. No other power league has had a worse time in the inter-conference season, with bad losses abounding even for the most successful teams.

Surprising Oregon State has gone 10-2 so far, but even they have a home loss to lowly Idaho on their record. Nevertheless, star guard Jared Cunningham and the Beavers look to be in a better position than most of the league as they set their sights on the NCAA tournament.

Herein, a closer look at all 12 of the conference’s teams, with an eye to whether each squad’s March Madness hopes are on the rise or, like a falling stock, ought to be unloaded ASAP.

Arizona

The Wildcats are better than their 8-4 record, with their losses having come against high-powered teams like Mississippi State and Florida (in OT).

Their win over St. John’s in the 2K Sports Classic—a de facto road game—is one of the best for any Pac-12 squad, and they also trounced Clemson.

Forward Solomon Hill is doing his level best to replace Derrick Williams, averaging team highs of 12.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists a night. With three other Arizona players in double figures, this will be one of the Pac-12’s toughest offenses.

Verdict: Buying

Arizona State

Despite a blowout win over Wake Forest, Arizona State has largely lived down to expectations on the year. The Sun Devils’ current three-game skid includes home defeats by Northern Arizona and Fresno State.

Junior guard Trent Lockett is carrying the team again, averaging 13.5 points and seven rebounds a game. This time around, he’s getting some help in the backcourt from sophomore Keala King, who’s stepped up to lead the team with 3.4 assists a night.

Verdict: Selling

California

The veteran Golden Bears came into the year among the conference favorites and have done little to dispel that impression so far.

Cal is hurting for quality wins (though they get a shot at No. 23 UNLV Friday), but both of their losses came against what look like legitimate tournament teams in San Diego State and No. 8 Missouri.

Last year’s backcourt of Allen Crabbe and Jorge Gutierrez has picked up where it left off, with the duo combining for 30 points a game.

Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs adds another talented body to the mix, running the point to the tune of a team-leading 4.4 assists a night.

Verdict: Buying

Colorado

The Buffaloes have a half-decent win over Georgia to their credit, but most of their six victories have come against some pretty weak competition.

Losses to Wichita State and Maryland are nothing to be ashamed of, but falling to Colorado State (even on the road) hurts.

Sophomore Andre Roberson has been sensational, averaging 11.7 points and (as a 6’7” guard) a team-high 11.1 rebounds a game.

He could use some help from his backcourt mates, though, as senior PG Nate Tomlinson is dishing out just 3.2 assists a game.

Verdict: Selling

Oregon

The good news for Oregon is that they’ve picked better teams to lose to than most of the Pac-12, with Vandy, BYU and Virginia all looking like respectable defeats.

The bad news is that, like so much of the rest of the conference, the teams they’ve beaten are a pretty sorry bunch, although a true road win over Nebraska looks like a good start.

Minnesota transfer Devoe Joseph, finally eligible to play in the last five outings, has hit the ground running with a team-leading 14.3 points a game.

Unfortunately, he’s not getting much help up front, as E.J. Singler struggles to fill the void left by Joevan Catron.

Verdict: Selling

Oregon State

The Beavers are a two-point loss away from being a favorite in the Pac-12 after their comeback against Vanderbilt in the Legends Classic fell just short.

Even so, OSU has only one other loss—albeit a bad one to Idaho at home—and one solid win against a respectable Texas squad as it heads into conference play.

Junior guard Jared Cunningham is one of the Pac-12’s best, scoring a team-high 17 points a game while also ranking sixth in the nation with 2.9 steals a night.

Now that he’s getting some help inside (junior forward Joe Burton is leading the team with 4.1 assists a game in addition to his six rebounds a contest), the Beavers have a chance to make a statement against Pac-12 competition.

Verdict: Buying

Stanford

Not only do the Cardinal boast the fewest losses in the Pac-12 at 10-1, but they also have some of the best wins in non-conference play.

Solid defeats of Oklahoma State and North Carolina State will help with the selection committee, as will an impressive performance against current No. 1 Syracuse in a loss in the NIT final.

Sophomore PG Aaron Bright has stepped up with 11.4 points and 3.5 assists a game, but Stanford isn’t relying entirely on its youth movement. Senior PF Josh Owens leads the team with 12.3 points a night and also pulls down 5.1 rebounds per contest.

Verdict: Buying

UCLA

After their much-publicized disastrous start, the Bruins have recovered to win four in a row (and go 5-1 since Reeves Nelson was dismissed from the team).

A neutral-site squeaker over Penn is the best of a weak set of non-conference wins, but 6-5 is still a lot better than UCLA looked like it would be after the first couple of games.

Nelson’s incomprehensible implosion hasn’t entirely crippled the frontcourt, as twin transfers Travis and David Wear have picked up some of the slack.

Still, PG Lazeric Jones (13 points, 3.9 assists per game) is under an inordinate amount of pressure with the team’s best proven scorer gone.

Verdict: Selling

USC

The Trojans don’t have as many bad losses as some of their Pac-12 brethren, although a home defeat by Cal Poly doesn’t help any.

However, it’s not like USC has an abundance of impressive wins, either—South Carolina and TCU would look a lot better on a football schedule than basketball.

5’7” sophomore Maurice Jones is doing everything he can, but even with 15.6 points and 1.6 steals a game, he can’t do anything to help USC’s lack of size.

The country’s 340th-ranked rebounding squad won’t be in for an easy season against appreciably taller Pac-12 foes.

Verdict: Selling

Utah

Even after two straight wins (over Idaho State and Portland), there’s no sugarcoating the terrible start to Utah’s season.

An eight-game losing streak featured defeats at the hands of such luminaries as Montana State and Cal State-Fullerton, not a good omen as the team heads into its first season in a power conference.

Leading scorer Josh Watkins (16.7 points per game) may have bounced back from a one-game suspension, but the Utes are severely short on talent, especially talent that can compete in the Pac-12.

Coach Larry Krystkowiak, a pretty fair power forward in his day and still just 47, is likely to wish more than once this season that he could suit up and help his overmatched front line.

Verdict: Selling

Washington

The Huskies have no shortage of talent, with stud freshman Tony Wroten adding 16.4 points and three assists a night to an already-stacked backcourt.

Terrence Ross has blossomed as expected with increased playing time, ranking second on the roster with 15.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.

Although Washington has shown flashes of brilliance against stronger teams—losing to Marquette and Duke by a combined eight points—it has no quality wins heading into Pac-12 play.

After Sunday’s disastrous 19-point home loss to South Dakota State, it’s hard to like the Huskies’ chances even if they do play well within the conference.

Verdict: Selling

Washington State

As highlighted in a blowout of Santa Clara, rumors of the Cougars’ post-Klay Thompson demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Faisal Aden has stepped in admirably at SG, with 15.1 points a game, and he’s getting plenty of help from a pair of juniors, PF Brock Motum and PG Reggie Moore.

Even so, Washington State suffers from the same lack of quality victories as most of the Pac-12. Add in a bad loss to UC-Riverside, and the selection committee won't find much to impress them here.

Verdict: Selling