Tiger Woods? Phil Mickelson? Nope. Who Will Win at Kapalua?

I always look forward to the PGA Tour's first event of the year at beautiful Kapalua.  This gentle, breezy tournament has always seemed the ideal place and format in which to ease into the new season.

But I'm having a little trouble getting excited about this year's field.  Yes, I understand that the 28 players—oops, 27, Lucas Glover just pulled out after injuring his knee in a paddleboard escapade—all won last year.  And that the Hyundai Tournament of Champions winners-only event is the toughest field to make.

I follow golf carefully and know the names of all 27, but please don't make me write about Johnson Wagner, Brendan Steele or Chris Kirk. 

I also accept—in fact, happily welcome—that the young guns are taking over golf.  But where are Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Hunter Mahan?  And where are the mid guns, like Adam Scott?  Watching their girlfriends play tennis?  As a woman, I admire that sensibility, but c'mon, man, do your job.

Time marches on in golf, and one has to accept that we might not see Tiger and Ernie going head-to-head on that beautiful, long, downhill 18th on the Plantation Course.  I will watch this year, but for reasons other than pure golf.

Johnny Miller and Nick Faldo together in the booth are sure to be a highlight.  Plus, it's always fun to picture myself on Maui when it's the dead of winter stateside.

Who's going to win it?

It's tempting to predict one of the kids, like 2011 Rookie of the Year Keegan Bradley.  I love both his game and his demeanor.  I think Bradley finishes in the top 5 at Kapalua, but I don't believe he will win it in his first appearance here. 

Same with Kapalua first-timer Webb Simpson. (Is it my imagination or does Simpson look like Rick Neuheisel?  Perhaps that's why I don't like him.) He had an amazing 2011, leading in the all-around ranking in just his third year on the Tour.  Simpson will be a strong presence here, but, again, I think it's tough to win Kapalua in your virgin appearance.

Gary Woodland gets no respect.  But this guy is the very model of consistency, with a bunch of top 20s in the latter part of the year.  Every time I've seen him play, he hits it long and straight, which is the recipe for success at Kapalua.  I give him 3-to-1 odds to be holding the trophy on Monday.

I guess I can't leave out reigning FedEx Cup champion Bill Haas.  This is his second appearance at Kapalua; he finished 8th last year.  I expect him to improve on that finish this year, but not to win. 

K.J. Choi is my pick.  Don't you just love this guy?  Year after year, the Tank goes about his business and just flat-out competes.

Choi had a monster 2011, winning over $4.4 million, and he shot six consecutive top 20s to end his year.  I'm betting that he's still hot and that he shows this field of wanna-bes how it's done. 

Me?  I'll be watching the waves roll in and wondering where in the heck Rickie Fowler is.