NFL Playoff Picture: How Does Packers' Loss to Chiefs Shape NFC Race?

The Green Bay Packers lost their first game of 2011 less than two weeks before the start of 2012 to the Kansas City Chiefs, and the result will do little to shake up the NFC playoff picture.

The New Orleans Saints sit at No. 2 in the conference at 11-3, while the San Francisco 49ers can match that record with a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.

No. 1 Green Bay Packers (13-1)

Green Bay's win over New Orleans on opening night means that the Saints are already out of reach of the NFC's No. 1 seed, but the Niners are still barely alive for it.

The Packers are a stone cold lock to wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs however, as their pitted against the Chicago Bears (7-7) and the Detroit Lions (8-5) at home to end the season.

Green Bay topped both squads on the road earlier this year, and stands no chance of losing to both rivals to finish up 13-3.

If they win one, than they are in regardless of what happens. Question marks remain about the defensive issues and the injury to Greg Jennings suffered in week 14.

Projected seed: No. 1 (15-1)

No. 2 New Orleans Saints (11-3)

Drew Brees has the Saints firing on all cylinders and ranked No. 1 in the NFL in passing. New Orleans has won six in a row since falling to the Rams in October. 

The Saints, like the Packers, finish up with two home games against division rivals. New Orleans will host Atlanta (9-5) and Carolina (5-9) in Weeks 16 and 17, with a shot at wrapping up the NFC South and potentially claiming a first-round bye this January.

New Orleans will win the South easily given that Atlanta needs two wins and a Saints' home loss to Carolina to manage a tie atop the standings at 11-5.

The Saints should at the very least split the last two games, but they'll more than likely win out while San Francisco slips up. 

Projected seed: No. 2 (13-3)

No. 3 San Francisco 49ers (10-3)

The Niners were in prime position to claim a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs a week ago, but then they lost to division rival Arizona on the road.

At 10-3, San Francisco has virtually no room for error in the season's final three contests. The first of the three will be the toughest, a home game against the Steelers (10-3), which is followed by two road games inside the division, at Seattle (7-7) and at St. Louis (2-12).

The Seahawks have been on a tear lately and will no doubt provide a nightmare for the Niners with the help of the 12th man.

San Francisco's great start will be undone by a lousy finish, but they have locked up the NFC West, so they're in. 

Projected seed: No. 3 (11-5)

No. 4 Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

Dallas blew a golden opportunity up 12 on the Giants with just minutes to play in Week 14, but they capitalized in Week 15 with a crushing win over Tampa Bay that was followed up with a Giants (7-7) loss to the Redskins.

The Cowboys are nowhere near deserving of the NFC East title, but they will be locked in with a win over Philadelphia (5-8) at home next weekend and another Giants loss, to the Jets this time around.

Tony Romo is playing well, and it's very hard to believe the Cowboys won't win the division after week 15's discoveries, but all indications have the Giants beating the 'Boys at home in Week 17 to claim the crown via tiebreaker at 9-7.

Projected seed: No. 6 (9-7)

No. 5 Atlanta Falcons (9-5)

The Falcons have won four out of five games, but are hardly impressive at this point in the season. Atlanta's mediocre offense sputters far too often to be considered a Super Bowl contender, and ranks 18th in rushing yards in 2011 despite sporting a running back like Michael Turner.

With two matchups against New Orleans (11-3) and Tampa Bay (4-10) left on the schedule, Atlanta should finish up the season with 10 quality wins on its resume, good enough for a wild card spot in the NFC.

Projected seed: No. 5 (10-6)

No. 6 Detroit Lions (8-5)

The Lions look extremely shaky at this point in the year, which is arguably the worst time of year to be playing poorly, though some would argue good football early in the season is more important for confidence.

Detroit has no running game, and that bodes terribly for their playoff success, if they qualify. The Lions have also failed to slow any opposing backs, ranking 27th in the league in rush defense. 

Detroit's D is concerning heading into the home stretch, and the odds are not good that Matthew Stafford is going to beat QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers in shootouts.

The Lions finish the season at Oakland (7-6), home to San Diego (6-7) and at Green Bay (13-1). Detroit would be lucky to win one of those games to lock up a 9-7 mark at season's end.

Projected seed: Miss playoffs (8-8)

Team on the Outside

New York Giants (7-7)

The Giants looked absolutely pathetic on Sunday against the Redskins, but the bottom line is that they won't have to leave New Jersey the next two weeks, and two wins locks them into a playoff spot—in fact, a home playoff game as NFC East champs.

New York proved better than Dallas on the road in Week 14, and that means they control their own destiny in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Jets (8-5) and Cowboys (8-6).

Somehow, some way Big Blue is alive after losing five of their last six, and that's because they stepped up at the right time and beat the one team they had to this season, the Cowboys.

The Giants are by no means a consistent ball club, but they are better than the Dallas Cowboys, and that's why they will edge them for the second time in 2011 in Week 17 at MetLife Stadium.

Projected seed: No. 4 (9-7)