Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Outlooks for the Top 15 Next Year

Considering how much 2011 differed from 2010, 2012 could be another year of dramatic change in the men's circuit.

Del Potro is recovering, Federer has shown he is still a force, Nadal should never be counted out of the equation, and whether or not Djokovic can maintain his throne is yet to be seen.

This article will examine each of the top 15 and their prospects for next year, taking into account their likelihood of retaining their ranking or losing it.

15. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Dolgopolov is considered by some to be the next Santoro, and with his clever drop shots and distinctly unusual play style the comparison is understandable. 

However, Santoro never broke through and left a major impact on the tour, and unfortunately I don't believe Dolgopolov will either. He has some great variety and exceptional touch, but doesn't have a defining weapon that really sets him apart.

Look for him to either drop or retain his position next year, but not go any higher.

14. Andy Roddick

This past year was the first in which the American hasn't finished in the top 10, and it certainly doesn't bode well for the future. 

Ever since he was unable to overcome Federer at Wimbledon, in fact, Roddick hasn't produced any impressive results when it has mattered most.

Look for this to signify the beginning of the end, and for Roddick to maybe make a solid run at one or two more grand slams, but not to be a staple of the top 10 as he was before. 

13. Robin Soderling

The Swede has already said that he won't participate in the Australian Open next year, and seems to be hampered more and more often by injury.

He has weapons that shake even the top players, though, and therefore can never be considered anything other than a threat.

Whether or not his ranking will rise or drop is entirely contingent upon whether or not he can avoid these nagging injuries, so hopefully he will be able to have a healthy 2012.  

12. Gilles Simon

Simon has always been a sort of poor man's Murray: he has great foot-speed and endless consistency, but has never made a breakthrough at the slam level. 

Hovering between No. 10-20 seems to be where he belongs, and don't expect 2012 to be any different at the events that matter most. 

11. Juan Martin Del Potro

He was the first player to defeat both Federer and Nadal en route to a Grand Slam title, which should be testament alone to the talent he possesses.

However, he has struggled with his wrist since then, and clearly still has not managed to return to 100 percent.

Like Soderling, how good his 2012 is depends entirely on whether or not he is able to recover and stay healthy, because he needs to get that 115 mph forehand back if he wants to make another Major run. 

10. Nicolas Almagro

One of the best clay courters on tour, but never a Grand Slam threat. Almagro finally managed to break into the top 10, but don't expect that position to last.

Look for him to drop out of the top 10 and maybe even 20 next year, as I don't believe he has the game to make a deep impression on the circuit.

9. Janko Tipsarevic

Ever since his classic match with Federer at the Australian Open in 2008, people have been expecting better things of Tipsarevic. He has always been exceptionally talented, but never seemingly had the drive necessary in order to reach the highest echelons of the game.

Unfortunately, he has grown old in the time it took him to get there, much in the way of Mardy Fish. Sure, the game is become more and more suited to the veterans rather than the prodigies, but don't expect Tipsarevic to do anything remarkable next year. 

8. Mardy Fish

Same story as the slide before. Fish has had a breakthrough 2011, but has struggled with injury at the end of the year and, coupled with his old age, looks rather fragile going into 2012.

Expect him to drop out of the top 10, and for next year to perhaps be the first in which an American won't finish among them. 

7. Tomas Berdych

Once Berdych made the finals of Wimbledon in 2010, I thought he was primed for a breakthrough. The manner in which he dispatched Federer was nothing short of breathtaking, and his final with Nadal was closer than the scoreline suggested.

Barring injury, I certainly believe that he could make a deep run in a slam next year. He has a game as big as anyone's on tour, and when it clicks, there are few who can stop him.

6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

2012 is looking more and more like the year in which Tsonga will take home his first slam. He came close in 2008, taking apart Nadal in the semifinals at the Australian Open and playing a competitive final against an in form Djokovic. 

Expect 2012 to be a big year for the Frenchmen, especially at Wimbledon and the US Open, where both cater to his high-tempo, big game. 

5. David Ferrer

If Ferrer has shown us anything, it's consistency: not just in his play, but in always managing to place among the elite year after year. 

He, too, is growing old, though, and considering his enervating play style it is doubtful that he will remain a top 10 candidate in the years to follow. Look for this to be the beginning of the end for the Spaniard as well.

4. Andy Murray

Many are claiming 2012 will be the Scot's year. I have never put much faith into him, though, largely because of how he has collapsed in the finals he has played in thus far, and am skeptical as whether he will ever manage to make the breakthrough of taking home a slam.

Djokovic and Nadal both play his game but better, and Murray hasn't been able to defeat Federer in any of the slams in which they have played. Look for him to remain a staple of the top 10 or maybe even five again next year, but to still remain slamless. 

3. Roger Federer

Federer has had the worst year since he won his first grand slam title. He managed to take home the World Tour Finals yet again, but only made one slam final in the entire course of the year. 

When he finds his form, there is nobody on tour that can contend with him, no matter his age. But he seems to be doing that consistently less and less, and it's hard to imagine him taking home multiple slams in a calendar year ever again.

However, I have faith that he could take one home next year, and look for it to be an improvement rather than a decline. 

2. Rafael Nadal

The end of the year events represented what was, for Nadal and his fans, a disappointing year.

He took home the French Open, but could not even manage a single victory against Djokovic, which both Federer and Murray were able to do. Had he been capable, his 2011 could have been even better than his 2010.  

If the Serb continues his dominance, things don't look good for the Spaniard. Therefore, it seems as though Nadal's 2012 will largely depend on the health of Djokovic. 

1. Novak Djokovic

The Serb ended with one of the best seasons in history, taking home three grand slam titles and seven Masters cups. 

He, too, looked fragile at the end of the year, though, and if the shoulder becomes a recurring issue it could have a largely detrimental impact on his future. 

Injury seems to be the only possible impediment for the Serb, though, as he was able to have an advantageous head to head against all other members of the top 10 and have a year reminiscent of Federer in his prime. Look for the Serb, if healthy, to continue to dominate in 2012.