MLB Free Agents 2012: Yu Darvish Losers Will Come out Ahead in Bidding War

Generally speaking, it's not hard to get a Red Sox fan to speak negatively about someone on the team. But if you mention the name Daisuke Matsuzaka around any of them, hope that no kids are around, because some nasty words are going to fly. 

Between his bidding rights and contract, the Red Sox shelled out around $103 million to bring Matsuzaka in. After all of that, they got an unmitigated bust. A decent 2008 season came between dismal years in 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011. That's certainly not what Boston had in mind. 

Now, we're going through this all over again with Yu Darvish. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the team that wins the bidding rights for Darvish will fork out between $30 and $70 million.

Logically, you would have to figure that the actual contract will be about what they posted to have the rights to get him. That's an awful lot of money to spend on a pitcher, which is never a good idea.

Ask the Giants if they would sign Barry Zito again if they were given the chance for a mulligan. Ask the Mets the same question about Johan Santana. Those players were proven in the major leagues. Each had a Cy Young Award (Santana had two) and a 20-win season to their credit. 

Yet, Zito's been largely ineffective for the Giants. When they won the World Series in 2010, he wasn't even on the postseason roster. Santana has been better, but has yet to start 30 games in a season for the Mets. Actually, he missed the entire 2011 season. 

So, what does all of this tell us? You don't want to spend that kind of money on a pitcher. For one, even at their best, they play every five games. More importantly, they're just too fragile. Injuries seem to hit pitchers harder than other positions, and it's tougher to recover. 

As if that wasn't enough, read what Passan had to say about Darvish' willingness to stay in Japan.

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Because the sentiment that Darvish will return to Japan next season, most executives believe, isn’t 100 percent posturing. Sure, it would be difficult to turn down a contract guaranteeing tens of millions of dollars in the best league in the world. Darvish also chafes at the very idea of the posting system if it’s to rob him in order to pay a team that has been more employer than nurturer.

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You have a pitcher, which is a gamble. This particular pitcher is like Matsuzaka in that he's never thrown a pitch in major leagues. On top of all of that, Darvish may not even come to the team that wins the right to bid on him this season. 

Remember that the posting fee goes to his team. He would make more money to come over as a free agent, but the team paying for him would fork out the same kind of money, just all to him.

Sure, teams are going to bid on his rights. That's going to happen. But the team that gets him is going to be bogged down with uncertainty over a pricey gamble. 

The teams that don't get him are going to get off lucky here. The same is true for the teams that didn't get Zito, Santana and Matsuzaka. They will be allowed to save their money and bid on major league-proven, everyday players. 

The team that gets him won't be so fortunate.

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