NFL Picks Week 14: Home Favorites That Will Come Up Short

There really are no sure bets in the NFL, but you can always play it safe with home teams. Especially ones that are favored to win by a healthy margin.

The only trouble is that big spreads that favor home teams are oftentimes a trap, and too many bettors tend to fall for them. You must exercise caution.

In Week 14, I think you have to exercise caution when it comes to four matchups in particular. The spreads favor the home teams, but they won't get the job done.

Note: all spreads according to Bodog.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)

This is a matchup that the Steelers should dominate, as their defense should be able to overwhelm the Browns' inferior offense. The fact that Peyton Hillis is questionable for this game with a hip injury does not help Cleveland's cause.

The concern I have is that this game is going to be played on Thursday night, and Thursday night games have a tendency to be sloppy. Both teams are coming into this tilt on very short rest, and that's going to be an issue for both of them.

As far as the Steelers are concerned, it wouldn't surprise me at all if their offense struggled to get in rhythm against a Browns defense that really isn't all that horrible. If Big Ben and friends have an off night, the Steelers are not going to be able to run away with this game.

They'll still win, but not by enough to cover.

Steelers 21, Browns 10

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-17)

Things aren't getting any easier for the Colts. Last week it was a trip to the New England Patriots, this week it's a trip to the Baltimore Ravens.

The Colts are not going to be exiting Baltimore with their first win, but they might just be able to beat the spread. The Ravens don't have enough offense to run away and hide from the Colts, and I think they could let bettors down by taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter.

You know, kinda like the Patriots did against the Colts this past Sunday. They were well on their way to covering, but then let the Colts score three fourth quarter touchdowns.

I don't think the Colts are going to make a similar run in this game, but I do think they're going to make this one too close for comfort.

Ravens 27, Colts 13

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-9)

This is a game that the Chiefs likely aren't winning, but it has the look and feel of a matchup that is going to be an ugly game to watch.

Because of that, I have my doubts that the Jets are going to be able to bury the Chiefs. Say what you will about Kansas City's offense, but its defense is halfway decent. That bodes well for the Chiefs going up against a Jets offense that is hit or miss. And make no mistake, it misses just as often as it hits.

The key for the Chiefs will be to hold the Jets to about the 20-point mark. Tyler Palko will undoubtedly turn the ball over at least once, but the Chiefs should be able to even the score by forcing Mark Sanchez to commit a few turnovers.

In the end, I think the Jets are barely going to escape with this one.

Jets 20, Chiefs 13

Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The Chargers dominated the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night, but don't take that as a sign that they're back. Take it as a sign that they beat a very, very bad Jaguars team.

The Bills are also a bad team at this juncture, but they've at least managed to be competitive in their last two games. They're going to put up a fight against the Chargers, who looked like a truly inferior team during their six-game losing streak.

In this matchup, I think you can expect to see Philip Rivers go back to being his bad self. He took advantage of an atrocious Jacksonville secondary on Monday night, and Buffalo's own secondary is less than atrocious. Hence the reason the Bills are among the league leaders in interceptions.

Don't get me wrong, I do think the Chargers are going to win this game. It's just going to be close.

Chargers 24, Bills 21