Breaking Down the Draft Prospects of the Heisman Trophy Finalists

The 2011 Heisman Trophy class features a player many are calling the best NFL draft prospect ever (Andrew Luck), an electric run/pass threat with shades of Cam Newton (Robert Griffin III), a dynamic cover man and punt returner (Tyrann Mathieu) and two record-breaking running backs with next-level skills. Which one will make the best NFL player though?

The Heisman Trophy doesn't guarantee NFL success, in fact quite the opposite. Over the previous 76 years many Heisman winners have gone on to less-than-stellar NFL careers, while others like Cam Newton have found instant success at the highest level.

Let's meet the 2011 finalists and get up-close and personal with their chances at NFL greatness.

Montee Ball, Running Back, Wisconsin

Height: 5'11"  Weight: 212 lbs  Stats: 1,759 rushing yards, 32 rushing touchdowns, six receiving touchdowns, one passing touchdown

Scouting Report: Montee Ball's production as a runner at Wisconsin over the last season and a half is untouchable. He's been durable and consistent with a nose for the end zone. While Ball is establishing himself as a great collegiate runner, I have my doubts about his ability once in the NFL.

Ball dropped weight before the 2011 season, getting himself down to 212 pounds, but in doing so he didn't gain any burst or lateral agility. Ball remains a good one-cut back, but he now lacks the bulk and the burst to last in the NFL. 

We see two carries here—both tell the story of Montee Ball. On the first carry the hole closes, Ball doesn't bounce outside and he isn't able to run through the tackle. Minimal gain.

On the second carry the hole is huge, and Ball quickly gets past the line of scrimmage, makes one cut and picks up a great gain. The difference between these two carries is the holes being opened by the line. Every running back is in some ways an extension of his line, but Ball benefits from playing behind two All-American linemen (Kevin Zeitler and Peter Konz), where he hasn't had to use vision or burst to break free. 

Ball carries a solid third-round grade at this time. 

NFL Comparison: Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts

Best Fit: Zone blocking scheme (Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts)

Current Ranking: No. 82 overall player, No. 7 overall running back

NFL Draft Prediction: Returns to Wisconsin for senior season 

Robert Griffin III, Quarterback, Baylor

Height: 6'2"  Weight: 220 lbs  Stats: 387 yards per game, 36 passing touchdowns, 3,988 passing yards

Scouting Report: Those seeing Griffin for the first time may quickly decide he's a running quarterback who can never make it in the NFL. Look closer. Griffin has tore apart the Big 12 this season as a passer first, runner second. It's worth noting that 2010 Heisman winner Cam Newton had more rushing yards in his one season at Auburn than Griffin has in the last two years combined.

Two throws here to look at from RG3, one good and one not so good.

Throw No. 1 we see Griffin on the move, something the Baylor offense does often to take advantage of his quickness and the run threat he poses. Griffin makes a quick throw to the flats that is too low, and the pass is incomplete on the sideline. Throw No. 2 is the one to watch.

Griffin is flushed from the pocket but has the presence to keep both the ball and his eyes up and looking downfield. The footwork isn't great, he didn't square his shoulders to step in to the throw but Griffin has the strength and accuracy to throw off balance and put the ball in an amazing position for his wide receiver to make the grab. This is an NFL-level throw if you'll ever see one.

Griffin excels because of his quick release from the pocket or when on the move. He has an elite ability to remain calm, keep his eyes up and scan the field whether he's pressured or not. We have seen how pressure affects players like Blaine Gabbert in the NFL—RG3 will show no side effects when pressured.

There is the added bonus of being a skilled runner and great athlete, but this is both a blessing and a curse. Griffin suffered one concussion this season and will have NFL scouts questioning his ability to take a hard hit while on the move. 

That one black mark won't be enough to move Griffin down on my board. He's firmly entrenched as the No. 2 overall player should he decide to leave Baylor for the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Best Fit: All systems

Current Ranking: No. 2 overall player, No. 2 overall quarterback

NFL Draft Prediction: Round 1—Miami Dolphins

Andrew Luck, Quarterback, Stanford

Height: 6'4"  Weight: 235 lbs  Stats: 3,170 passing yards and 35 touchdowns

Scouting Report: Andrew Luck has been touted as the best NFL draft prospect—at any position—since John Elway entered the league in 1983. I'll agree.

Andrew Luck does so many things well, even the simple throws he's making are exciting to break down.

Here we see Luck in a standard shotgun with two backs—a pro set in today's game. Luck is flushed to his right by the Notre Dame pass rush. Notice he keeps two hands on the ball and is always ready in a throwing motion. That's the first thing that impresses me.

The second aspect of this "easy" throw is how quickly the ball comes out once Luck decides to throw the ball. This is a strike on a line to the receiver on a crossing route. Luck was patient, kept the ball in a ready motion and made a great throw on the run when the opportunity presented itself. Young quarterbacks don't make decisions like this often.

While some will point to Luck's lack of "big wins" or jaw-dropping statistics, it's quickly overlooked how well he does not only the big things, but the little things. On a fundamental level, there are no flaws in Andrew Luck's game. This isn't to say he's the best ever at every skill set, but he does nothing that makes you pause and question his long-term ability.

Serving as the de facto offensive coordinator for Stanford this season, Luck's brilliance has exceeded sheer play on the field. His football IQ is off the charts, as are his leadership ability and character. Not only is he a can't-miss prospect, Luck is a once in a generation player.

NFL Comparison: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Best Fit: All systems

Current Ranking: No. 1 overall player, No. 1 overall quarterback

NFL Draft Prediction: Round 1, Pick 1—Indianapolis Colts

Tyrann Mathieu, Cornerback, LSU

Height: 5'8"  Weight: 175 lbs  Stats: 71 tackles, five forced fumbles, two interceptions, two punt return touchdowns

Scouting Report: As only a true sophomore at LSU, Tyrann Mathieu isn't eligible for the 2012 NFL draft yet—players must be three years removed from high school graduation. That doesn't mean we can't take a look at his impressive skills.

The first thing you notice is Mathieu's lack of ideal NFL size for the cornerback position. He's a full two inches shorter than you'd like and at least 10 lbs light. Muscle and bulk can be added, but most men don't grow two inches past their 16th birthday. A position change may be in order for Mathieu.

I could easily show you a clip of Mathieu's ability as a return man, or him running back an interception, but the most impressive part of his game to me is the fearlessness he brings to tackling.

Watch here as Mathieu takes on a much larger back. This isn't an Antonio Cromartie tackle—Mathieu steps up and sticks his nose in the play. The form isn't great, but he makes the open-field tackle on a back who outweighs him by 50 pounds. It's this ability that has me seeing Mathieu as a free safety at the next level.

During his time at LSU, Tyrann has shown an ability and tenacity as a tackler. He's great at coming out of his break and attacking the ball carrier. Another impressive trait is his knack for finding the football in space. He may not be great in man coverage due to his height, but Mathieu swarms to the football with great burst and agility. 

If I'm running the draft, Mathieu would quickly become my target free safety. His size would not be an issue there, and his natural skills as a ball-hawk would be best served in space. Another bonus—Mathieu is an excellent punt returner and will make an immediate impact in that role.

NFL Comparison: Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks

Best Fit: Free Safety

Current Ranking: Not 2012 draft eligible (true sophomore)

NFL Draft Prediction: Returns to LSU for junior season

Trent Richardson, Running Back, Alabama

Height: 5'11"  Weight: 224 lbs  Stats: 1,583 yards rushing, 20 touchdowns

Scouting Report: Trent Richardson has been on my radar for some time now. During his freshman season, Richardson impressed both in the regular season and in the team's run to a national championship. In that game Richardson showed the early signs of being a great prospect—notching over 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns against an elite Texas defense.

Rarely do I rank running backs as high as I have Richardson, but rarely do running backs enter the NFL with a finished style such as Richardson. He's ready to be an immediate impact as a runner, receiver and blocker—which makes him a lock for the early part of the first round.

Richardson's best assets are his agility and his vision. Watch as Richardson makes multiple defenders miss in the open field. From the hand-off we see Richardson make a decisive cut to elude one tackler and then cut across field into the opening. Before taking the ball in for a score, Richardson executes a perfect stutter-step that causes what should have been a sure tackle to break down.

Whether in the backfield or in space, Richardson is able to make cuts and moves that few backs can make. That doesn't make him a shifty runner though, Richardson is willing and able to lower his pads and run over defenders. 

NFL teams searching for an answer at tailback will quickly fall in love with Richardson.

NFL Comparison: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets

Best Fit: Starting running back in system that utilizes backs as receivers

Current Ranking: No. 3 overall player, No. 1 overall running back

NFL Draft Prediction: Round 1—Cleveland Browns