2011 College Football Week 15 Picks: Navy over Army
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D I-A game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams.
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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Army vs. Navy
Just so we all are speaking the same language, Army's Trent Steelman and Navy's Kriss Proctor are the Tim Tebow of college football. That is to say, to pass the football is to indulge in needless vices.
Steelman, who is scheduled to play after battling injuries the last month, has thrown 39 passes all season with two touchdowns and two picks. Army averages eight passes per game as a team.
More of a gun slinger, Proctor has chucked the rocked around the yard 100 times this season in 10 games (he did not play against Notre Dame) with seven touchdowns and six interceptions. In 10 games, he's averaged 10 passes per contest.
Some call them option offenses, but we know darn well the Black Knights' and Midshipmen's top option is to run the ball this Saturday. Army is first in the country in rushing at 350.9 yards per game (62.7 carries per game) with Navy fourth at 313.9 yards per game (57.1 carries per game).
The game may come down to who possesses the better rush defense. If only the stats were that black and white. Navy is 82nd in the country at 176.8 yards allowed per game. Army is 92nd at 185.7 yards allowed per game.
The Black Knights may dig into their bag of tricks and try to pass against the weak Navy secondary like they did in 2010. Last season, Steelman bucked the trend and tossed 20 passes, two of which resulted in touchdowns in a 31-17 loss.
Navy has won nine straight against their rival.
Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" Navy and Army 101 times and it's the Midshipmen winning 65.3 percent of the time by an average score of 26-20.
| Navy Midshipmen | 65.3 | 26 | Boxscore |
| @ Army Black Knights | 34.7 | 20 | |
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
