NFL Picks Week 14: 7 Locks No Bettor Would Turn Down

As we enter the business end of the NFL season, the race for the playoffs is heating up.

For gamblers, Week 14 carries plenty of intrigue, with a series of in-form teams squaring off against franchises with losing records.

If you're looking for locks, this is the week to place your hard-earned money on the line.

I have seven matchups where the hungry and motivated meet the meek and dysfunctional, which in today's NFL—where anybody can win, any given Sunday—is almost unheard of.

Predictions against the spread—set by bodog.eu—are followed here too, but this week, I want to focus on the money line.

Let's get into the locks, in more detail, that bettors can feel good about.

Baltimore Ravens

The first rule of betting this season is simple: always bet against the Colts.

If you're looking for a lock this week, take Baltimore at home.

You won't get paid much for picking them outright with Vegas, but it represents one of the safest bets you can place this week.

As for the spread, 17 points is an awful lot to cover, and it's been four weeks since the 0-12 Colts lost by more. I think that trend is snapped in Baltimore this Sunday.

Dan Orlovsky can throw the ball marginally better than Curtis Painter, but be wary of placing too much stock in his performance last weekend versus New England.

Their 21 points came in junk time in the fourth quarter. Prior to that, the Colts scored three points in three quarters—against the worst secondary in the league.

And despite their run defense holding the Patriots to just 73 rushing yards, they are still one of the worst units in the league statistically, and now have to face Ray Rice and his bodyguard of a fullback, Vonta Leach.

The days of Baltimore losing to bad teams are over, and regardless—all their blips have come on the road.

The Ravens are locked into a battle for first place in the AFC North with the Steelers, and their focus will ensure that they take the Colts seriously. So seriously that they blow them away by a good margin.

Green Bay Packers

The New York Giants gave the Packers a real fright last Sunday, before succumbing to a late field goal on a lightning-fast 80-yard drive by Aaron Rodgers.

That could be the closest anybody gets to ruining the perfect season for Mike McCarthy's men, and while the Packers' ability to concede a ton of points on any given Sunday is a concern for the playoffs, don't expect the Raiders to exploit their deficiencies at Lambeau Field.

For a Green Bay team winning games by an average of 13.2 points, the 11.5-point spread seems a little light, and having watched the Raiders sink without trace in Miami in Week 13, I see nothing to suggest that the Packers can't cover with ease.

New England Patriots

The Patriots might have the most porous secondary in the NFL, but when you have Tom Brady on the other side of the ball putting 35 points on the board every Sunday, what difference does it make?

Lock in a win for New England on the road against the Washington Redskins. The 9-point spread is a little generous though, considering the yardage New England allows opposing quarterbacks in junk time, so take the points.

On the surface, this doesn't appear to be the best matchup for the Patriots.

The 'Skins rank ninth in passing yards allowed, but having faced little in the way of elite quarterback play this season—and I'll leave it to you to decide if Tony Romo and Eli Manning are elite—their stats are inflated.

However, their defensive ends do a great job of rushing the passer—with Ryan Kerrigan (6.5 sacks), Brian Orakpo (6), Adam Carriker (5) and Stephen Bowen (4.5) all chipping in with key contributions—so Matt Light and Nate Solder will need to take their A-games to FedEx Field.

With the incentive of an AFC East crown pushing the Patriots this week—they would take the division in the unlikely even that they win, and the Jets lose—expect the offense to come out firing on all cylinders.

In the words of Tedy Bruschi, the "hat and T-shirt games" focus the mind. If you need further proof that the Patriots will be pumped for Sunday, take in the words of Bruschi, speaking last Christmas on ESPNBoston.com:

"

Those hats and T-shirts mean something. It means you've accomplished something. There have been plenty of teams that have been Wild Card teams and gone to the AFC or NFC championships and have nothing to show for it—no division title or anything. When you win your division, it says something, right there on the hat and T-shirt—"Division Champs." I was always proud to put those T-shirts on and you want a set of three—division, conference and you all know what the last one is. It starts with that first one, though.

"

It's not the lock of the week by any means, but if you're a gambling man, you could do much worse than back New England.

Seattle Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch is in the form of his career right now, with four 100-yard games in his last five outings.

The 2-10 Rams have the worst run defense in the NFL.

Need any more convincing?

In the topsy-turvy world of the NFL, anything is possible in theory, but not only have the Rams struggled to get anything going on offense, but they laid an egg when the Seahawks rolled into town in Week 11, losing 24-7.

I can't see the return fixture in Seattle ending any differently for Steve Spagnuolo's men.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The NFL Network gets a divisional matchup this Thursday night, with the Steelers entertaining the Cleveland Browns.

Aside from their familiarity with one another, there's not a huge amount of intrigue here.

In short, Cleveland don't score enough points to keep pace with Pittsburgh—and its 31st-ranked run defense won't be able to deny Rashard Mendenhall on the ground.

Despite being the proud owners of the best passing defense in the league, the best quarterback they have faced all season is Matt Schaub in Week 9—and they conceded 30 points to him and the Texans.

Ben Roethlisberger is a more accomplished quarterback, with a receiving corps that has developed into a scary unit this year.

Antonio Brown might be one of the most improved players across the NFL, and Mike Wallace continues to make big plays like a true No. 1 wide receiver.

The spread is set at 14, which I would lay, given the struggles Colt McCoy has had in the passing game. This is a passing league, and the Browns must look to the wideout class of the 2012 draft if they intend to compete in the AFC North in the near future.

Roethlisberger, in the 35-7 win over the Bengals last Sunday, showed no lingering effects of the fractured thumb he is playing through. Bettors can look forward to another blowout this week.

New York Jets

This is as much of a vote of confidence in the Jets, as it is an indictment of the state of the Chiefs right now.

New York open as nine-point favorites at home this Sunday, which reflects a few recent trends all pointing to a lock for gamblers.

Shonn Greene has rediscovered his swagger in the last two Jets' victories, ripping off huge chunks of yardage against Buffalo before punching in three scores last weekend in the 34-19 victory over the Washington Redskins.

With Mark Sanchez on a short leash and a banged-up LaDainian Tomlinson playing through a knee injury, the re-emergence of Greene has come at a nice time for the Jets as they prepare to face a Chiefs' front seven that ranks 25th against the run.

If Kyle Orton is unable to go this Sunday, the Chiefs have no chance of keeping it close. With him, I'm only marginally more convinced that they can, but check on his status later in the week either way before betting against the spread.

If Tyler Palko has to throw the ball on the New York Jets, then consider this one of the safest bets of the weekend.

Miami Dolphins

I never thought I'd pick Miami as a lock this season, but the Dolphins' turnaround has been seriously impressive.

Watching their 34-14 beat-down of the Oakland Raiders last Sunday, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Dolphins were the team chasing a postseason berth, such was their intensity and execution.

Regardless of the reasons underpinning their resurgence—be it Matt Moore or the urge to rally around Tony Sparano—they are a team that nobody wants to face right now.

There's no doubt that Philadelphia are improved by the return of Michael Vick and, with LeSean McCoy splitting carries with his quarterback, you can never completely rule out the Eagles delivering a performance worthy of their talent.

But their capitulation in Seattle saw old problems emerge on run defense, and the rebirth of Reggie Bush figures to be a key component of this matchup.

The spread of three points pays respect to the quality of the Eagles' roster but oversells their current form, and I have a hard time seeing a motivated Miami fall to a team that appeared to give up on the season last Thursday.

And if there are any Miami fans out there still grieving the loss of Andrew Luck in next year's draft, I advise them to enjoy the moment and watch tapes of Matt Barkley and RG3. The future is bright.