Orange Bowl 2012: Previewing Clemson vs. West Virginia

Most bowl prognosticators had West Virginia winning the Big East’s three-way tie by virtue of the highest BCS ranking, but substantially fewer forecasts had Clemson in the Orange Bowl.

Despite the lack of support from the brain trust, a huge win over Virginia Tech this past Saturday night has launched freshly crowned ACC Champion Clemson into its first ever BCS appearance. And so the Tigers will meet the Mountaineers on Wednesday January 4 at 8PM EST on ESPN in the 2012 Orange Bowl.

So, how does No. 23 West Virginia (9-3) match up with No. 15 Clemson (10-3)?

Well, what’s intriguing about the two teams is how similar they are statistically. It's almost uncanny.

Parallels between the Mountaineers and Tigers include: scoring offense (WVU 34.9 points per game vs. Clemson 33.6), scoring defense (WVU 26.3 vs. Clemson 26.2) and pass defense (WVU 199.6 yards allowed per game vs. Clemson 202.9).

Both Clemson and West Virginia are more successful through the air than on the ground from an offensive standpoint, and both teams defensive strength is stopping the pass rather than shutting down the run.

Therefore, in a clash of two comparable teams it’s the differences that indicate what each team must do to be in a position to win, and ultimately who has the advantage.

Offensively, Clemson is the better running team (155.8 yards per game vs. WVU’s 117.8), which also gives the Tigers a critical edge from a balance standpoint.

Ironically, from a defensive standpoint, the Mountaineers rushing defense is superior to that of the Tigers (140.8 yards per game allowed on the ground by WVU vs. 176.46 by Clemson).

Other key areas where differences exist include: turnover margin where the Tigers have a slight advantage (plus-2 vs. minus-2 for WVU), and penalty yards where Clemson has averaged about 20 yards less per game.

The other piece of the puzzle that offers an early peek into the 2012 Orange Bowl clash is taking into consideration the set of opponents each of the two teams has faced this year. This is absolutely crucial in analyzing the statistical differences between the two.

Clemson played five ranked teams in 2011, and all five are still ranked in a major poll.  The Tigers
faced two BCS non-conference squads this year (Auburn and South Carolina), faced teams that overall went 73-60 (54.89 percent) and met seven teams that finished the year with winning records.

West Virginia, on the other hand, played only two ranked opponents in 2011 with both teams still ranked.  The Mountaineers also faced two BCS non-conference foes (LSU and
Maryland), faced teams that went 71-62 (53.38 percent) in 2011 and met only four teams that finished the season with winning records.

The two teams have met only once previously—in the 1989 Gator Bowl, a game that Clemson won 27-7.

West Virginia is 2-0 in BCS play (won both the 2006 Sugar Bowl and the 2008 Fiesta Bowl) and the 2012 Orange Bowl is Clemson’s first ever BCS appearance.  The Big East is 6-7 in BCS
play and the ACC is only 2-11 in the big money grab.

This game will come down to which team can manage the best defense (or, in this case which defense will show up on the given day), and who is more effective running the ball. Of course we have to give the obligatory tip of that hat to turnovers, which easily could be the major deciding factor.

Overall, the statistical advantage in this matchup goes to Clemson by virtue of having the edge in a higher number of key categories, and because they earned their numbers against a decidedly stiffer level of competition.

A very early projection gives the Tigers a win over the Mountaineers by 10 points.