TUF 14 Finale: Yves Edwards vs. Tony Ferguson Breakdown

Out with the old, in with the new? Not if Yves Edwards has anything to say about it. This Saturday, the finale of season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter will pit season 13 winner Tony Ferguson, entering the Octagon for only the third time, against Edwards, a veteran's veteran making his 60th professional appearance.

So, right off the bat, you've got a pretty clear juxtaposition. The 35-year-old Edwards (41-17-1, 9-5 UFC) has been around the block a time or two thousand. The 27-year-old Ferguson (12-2, 2-0 UFC) is just stepping off the stoop. But the contrasts run beyond age and experience and could add up to one heck of a good fight Saturday between these two would-be contenders in the lightweight division.

Here's a full breakdown of the matchup.

(Photo credit: MMAFrenzy)  

Standup Phase

It doesn't take hours or even minutes of time spent in the film room or on the intertubes to figure out what will happen if this fight maintains its verticality for any extended period of time.

Ferguson has shown early and often that his primary weapons are the shot puts he carries around on the ends of his wrists. He KO'd his way through the TUF house, including a first-round KO over Ramsey Nijem in the finale. In September, a broken jaw forced Aaron Riley to stop fighting after the opening stanza. So, yeah, the young man can bang.

That can't be exciting news for Edwards, who as most fans remember was positively YouTubed in the first round of his UFC 131 matchup with Sam Stout (and if you're not familiar, well, YouTube it). Like many good fighters before him, Edwards' chin is not getting better with age. He has lost by T/KO four times in the last five years and has shown vulnerability here even in winning efforts.

Edwards can still bring some heat in the striking phase—as evidenced by a head-kick KO of Rafaello Oliveira in his last fight—but against a young buck with Ferguson's power, he'd need to land the MMA equivalent of a Hail Mary to get the better of this exchange. It wouldn't shock me to see him play defense on his feet, all the while looking for a chance to take Ferguson down. On the other side, it wouldn't surprise me to see Ferguson doing just the opposite.

Advantage: Ferguson 

Ground Phase

A champion collegiate wrestler, Ferguson should also have the edge here. But it's a far closer contest on the ground, where the wily Edwards has a long track record of success (and more on that in a second). But, given that both fighters seem to prefer a more up-tempo style, I don't see a ton of ground action taking place.

I think Ferguson's wrestling advantage will manifest itself more in takedown defense than in actual takedowns, whereas Edwards may be gunning for a quick finishing move rather than an extended chess match.

Slight advantage: Ferguson

Submission Phase

The only existing master of thug-jitsu (that I know of, anyway) can lock on all kinds of holds from all kinds of angles. When you have more wins by submission (17) than your opponent has professional fights (14), I'd say you have an advantage there.

And with Ferguson's aforementioned edge in the striking department, it's not an unsafe bet that Edwards will want to fall back on his thug-bread and thug-butter.

Advantage: Edwards

The Experience Thing

Could be a double-edged sword. Edwards will never get rattled, and age hasn't seemed to significantly hamper his conditioning or athleticism. On the other hand, there's the chin thing.

For Ferguson, he has an edge in power and probably overall athleticism, but it's entirely possible Edwards could throw something at him (most likely a submission move) that he has never seen when the proverbial live bullets are flying. But vice versa is probably not applicable.

Advantage: Edwards 

Bottom Line

It's no mystery why Yves Edwards is such a well-respected fighter. He can attack in a lot of different ways and has a ton of ring smarts. 

But in this one, Ferguson's strengths align perfectly with Edwards' weaknesses, and the chance of a big knockout are just too great. Ferguson wins the bout and gets his biggest victory to date.

Prediction: Tony Ferguson by TKO, Rd. 2