Oregon State vs. Oregon: Ducks Are Next Season's BCS Favorites If Juniors Stay

Oregon Ducks fans are surely disappointed after last week's last-second loss to the USC Trojans, which knocked them out of contention for a BCS Championship Game berth.

However, Oregon supporters can console themselves with the prospect of perhaps starting next season as the No. 1 team in the nation, and a favorite to return to the title game (which they lost to the Auburn Tigers last season).

Oregon's 2012 Outlook

On their current depth chart, the Oregon Ducks only have four seniors starting on the offensive side of the ball. They are both the offensive tackles, tight end David Paulson and wide receiver Lavasier Tuinei.

On the defensive side, they aren't quite as young. Six seniors start for the Ducks—most importantly, both defensive ends and two linebackers.

With twelve starters returning, Oregon would have a solid core coming back next season.

However, the Ducks have a number of juniors who are considered top NFL prospects. Cornerback Cliff Harris and running back LaMichael James are both possible first-round draft picks, while quarterback Darron Thomas has pro potential as well.

The manner in which the preseason pollsters view Oregon will largely be determined by whether these junior standouts stay in Eugene.

The Challengers

Glancing at the current Top 10, there are a number of teams who will lose significant contributors at the end of this season.

The Oklahoma Sooners will lose Ryan Broyles and almost certainly Landry Jones. The Houston Cougars' Case Keenum graduates this year. The Boise State Broncos will also lose their star quarterback, Kellen Moore, as will the Stanford Cardinal with Andrew Luck.

It's hard to imagine the Oklahoma State Cowboys being very good next season without Brandon Weeden or Justin Blackmon, while the Alabama Crimson Tide will be losing Trent Richardson and possibly eight starters from that vaunted defense.

The primary contenders for the top spot will probably be the Clemson Tigers, Virginia Tech Hokies and LSU Tigers.

Clemson gets almost all of their offensive weapons back, while Virginia Tech could return 10 starters on defense, as well as Logan Thomas and David Wilson. LSU will have to bring in a new quarterback, but they'll return 13 starters elsewhere.

Conclusion

The preseason rankings are largely determined by how the preceding season finishes. Next August's Top 5 is still very much up for grabs. For Oregon, returning Cliff Harris and LaMichael James would be important (I assume Darron Thomas is coming back).

If the Ducks win both the Pac-12 Championship and a BCS bowl, they could be looking at the No. 1 ranking coming into the 2012 season.