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BCS Bowl Projections: How the Bowls Will Look After Chaos

Matt SmithNov 20, 2011

Not only did the race for the BCS Championship Game get a major shake-up over the weekend, but the other four BCS bowls have little clarity as well. The SEC now appears to be the only conference certain to have two of its teams in BCS bowls.

With only two weeks remaining, many teams can now see their path to the BCS, but as this weekend told us, it's sure to be a rocky road. Here are the current projections for January's BCS bowls.

BCS Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama

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The "Game of the Century" might not be even be the biggest LSU-Alabama game of the 2011 season. The Tigers need to defeat Arkansas and Georgia to play for it all down the road from their campus in New Orleans.

Alabama appears to be in good shape at No. 2, but if No. 3 Arkansas upsets No. 1 LSU on Friday, they could drop even with a win at Auburn. The call is for the Tigers to survive their battle with the Razorbacks, setting up a rematch with the Crimson Tide for the national title.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon

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Even with the loss to USC, Oregon needs only a win in the Civil War over 3-8 Oregon State to wrap up a berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game, which would be at home in Eugene. Their opponent is still to be determined, with Utah the current favorite to survive the mess in the Pac-12 South.

Wisconsin will host Penn State for the Leaders Division title on Saturday, with the winner to play Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The home crowd should propel the Badgers past the Nittany Lions, and with revenge on their minds, Wisconsin should topple the inconsistent Spartans in Indianapolis for a return trip to Pasadena.

Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State

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While Stanford is not always attractive to bowls due to their small alumni base, an 11-1 Cardinal team with the best player in college football is a lock for a return trip to the BCS. They have a tricky game with Notre Dame in the season finale, but should be able to knock off the Irish for the third year in a row.

The other spot will come down to Bedlam, the de facto Big 12 Championship Game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Injuries are beginning to catch up to the Sooners, and Baylor exposed their surprisingly porous defense. The Cowboys will ride their home crowd to their first ever BCS bowl, setting up a fun matchup between two of the best passers in the country.

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Sugar Bowl: West Virginia vs. Michigan

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Brady Hoke has done a magnificent job in his first year at Michigan, and could hit the jackpot next weekend by beating Ohio State for the first time since 2003 and getting the Wolverines to a BCS bowl for the first time in five years. At 10-2, Michigan becomes very attractive as an at-large team, and the Sugar Bowl will snap them up with their replacement pick for the SEC champion.

West Virginia is now back in the driver's seat for the Big East title, but will have to beat Pittsburgh at home and South Florida on the road. With a fanbase which travels as well as any, they'll get the nod over Houston or TCU to come to New Orleans for the first time since 1993 (they played in the 2006 Sugar Bowl in Atlanta). Expect the name Rich Rodriguez to be discussed at length prior to this game.

Orange Bowl: Houston vs. Virginia Tech

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Virginia Tech is the highest ranked team in the ACC, but they still have work to do just to play for the ACC title. They'll visit Virginia on Saturday in a game that will decide the Coastal Division title. A win there would set up a chance to avenge their only loss of the season against Clemson for the conference title. Consistency will win out, and the Hokies will win their fifth ACC title in eight years.

Houston is in a similar situation as the Hokies, as they'll need to win at Tulsa on Friday to even play for the Conference USA championship. They should survive the shootout with the Golden Hurricane to get a chance to host likely Southern Miss for the conference title. If Houston slips up, TCU should get this spot. 

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