NFL Week 11 Picks: Gauging the Likelihood of Every Upset Scenario

Not only can upsets happen in the NFL, they do—every week. While it's hard to predict exactly which games will end up with the underdog on top, one can determine how likely that is to happen for every matchup of the week.

Thus, here is the likelihood of an upset in each game on the schedule for Week 11. Games which could not be determined to have a clear underdog, such as Jacksonville Jaguars-Cleveland Browns, have been omitted.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are riding a two-game winning streak on the legs of quarterback Tim Tebow and the fortunate position of having played uncharacteristically well, considering that they hardly have any talent on offense or under center (if that's what Tebow's play style can even be called).

When the Jets come to town on Thursday night, they won't have a third straight win. They're far, far more likely to be thoroughly blown out than to come up with the upset win, even a close one.

Chance of an upset: 22%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

Perhaps some team will defeat the Packers before the regular season is over, but it won't be Tampa this weekend. Even at their best, they couldn't win against this team at its worst.

But that won't be an issue on Sunday; whatever the Packers' "worst" is, it's highly doubtful we'd even see it long enough for it to cause Green Bay's first loss of the year.

Chance of an upset: .01%

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

The Panthers know how to hang around, but they're hard-pressed for wins, while the Lions are coming off of a divisional blowout, losing to the Chicago Bears in Week 10.

Detroit should win but there is a distinct chance that, if their defense isn't capable of flattening rookie quarterback Cam Newton, the Panthers threaten to defeat the Lions this Sunday. The odds are certainly against them, but there's a way they can win.

Chance of an upset: 33%

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Though the Bills are on a two-game losing streak and the Dolphins have won their last two games, I still consider Miami the underdog in this scenario based on overall season-long performance.

But those two wins means that the Dolphins have an excellent shot of pulling out the upset victory in their home contest against Buffalo. It all depends which Bills team takes the field; if it's the one we saw last week against the Dallas Cowboys, an upset isn't far-fetched at all.

Chance of an upset: 50%

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

I'd like to say that the Cowboys inconsistency makes an upset a distinct possibility this week, but the Washington Redskins are just so terrible that I don't see it happening.

While teams grab the surprise victory from time to time, the problems in Washington have become so systemic and deep-seated that there's little chance they can turn things around for one week and beat the rival Cowboys.

Chance of an upset: 15%

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

The two teams are tied in the AFC North with six wins apiece, but it's the Cincinnati Bengals who are the underdogs by merit of their rookie-led offense.

Cincinnati, at first glance, seems to have what it takes to pull out the victory over the more experienced Ravens, but one look at quarterback Andy Dalton's numbers the last two times he's faced strong defenses (the San Francisco 49ers and the Pittsburgh Steelers) and it's clear he cannot yet handle that pressure.

The Ravens are undefeated at home and will stay that way.

Chance of an upset: 31%

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

The Cardinals are on a two-game winning streak but the 49ers have won their last seven in a row as they rose to become the No. 2 team in the NFL.

A streak will have to end this Sunday, to be sure, but it won't be San Francisco's. While Arizona is a sneakily dangerous team, giving quite the scare to strong squads that shouldn't struggle against them, the Niners are too focused to lose.

Chance of an upset: 3%

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons

The AFC South is a division most thought would fall to the Houston Texans after the Indianapolis Colts abandoned their chokehold on it by dropping 10 straight games. However, with Texans quarterback Matt Schaub done for the season, the Titans have a very real chance to overtake them and grab the lead in the division.

This will certainly be a motivating factor for the Titans from here on out, starting this Sunday against the Falcons. An upset is certainly possible, more so than any other game this week. Though I don't think Atlanta will lose, I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

Chance of an upset: 49.9%

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears

In a strange turn of events, the underdogs in this scenario are the Chargers, and it's going to be a difficult task for them to come up with the win in Chicago this Sunday.

However, the Chargers, despite all of their flaws and problems, are still capable of being a good team and beating a good team. The Bears appear to have found the cure for what ails them, but that doesn't mean regression is out of the question. Chicago should win, but the Chargers have more than just an outside chance of pulling out the victory.

Chance of an upset: 41%

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

For all of their problems with inconsistency, and all of the injuries suffered, the New York Giants have really held it together this season, building up a comfortable lead in the oft-confusing NFC East.

The Eagles, on the other hand, have done little more than disappoint, piling mistakes upon mistakes, their numerous superstar players still not gelling together as a team. The Eagles have within them the capacity to win, but they have little chance to do so over New York this Sunday night.

Chance of an upset: 12%

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

This is one of the more unlikely upsets of the week, with the Chiefs in no way capable of matching, let alone defeating, a team like the Patriots.

Too many problems, too many injuries and just not enough talent has held the Chiefs back all season. Though they had an impressive four-game winning streak, it was preceded by three straight losses and followed by two more. After Monday night, that will be extended to three.

Chance of an upset: .05%