BCS Rankings: 10 Scenarios in Which LSU Does Not Win the Crystal Football

The LSU Tigers and Oklahoma State Cowboys are in control of their destiny. If the two teams win the rest of their games, they will meet in New Orleans for the BCS Championship Bowl.

Sounds simple, right?

But what happens if one of these two teams loses? Then the entire BCS picture is thrown into disarray. If LSU and Oklahoma State lose, there could be as many as 10 teams with one loss.

What then? 

Fortunately, I happen to have some answers. 

I’ll start by listing the games LSU is most vulnerable to lose. Then, we will take a look at possible BCS Championship Game scenarios that do not involve the top-ranked Tigers.

Arkansas Beats LSU

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be the LSU Tigers’ first test. Arkansas is currently ranked sixth in the BCS polls and has improved drastically from the beginning of the season.

Since their loss to the third-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, the Razorbacks have been on a roll. They have won big games handily, beating both the Auburn Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks by at least 25 points. 

Arkansas is undoubtedly still seething over their embarrassing loss to Alabama. They will come out more than ready to play against LSU.

The Tigers have not faced a team with the passing strengths of Arkansas. Despite their strong secondary, the team could still be vulnerable because they have not yet faced a truly tough test. If LSU takes the Razorbacks a little too lightly, they could be in for their first loss of the season.

LSU Loses in SEC Championship Game

If the LSU Tigers survive the Arkansas Razorbacks, they could easily be in for a letdown game in the SEC Championship. It is possible that the Tigers could see only the championship game in front of them and overlook their next opponent.

The Georgia Bulldogs look as if they will be the eastern representative in the SEC title game. They are a team who is finally playing up to their potential at exactly the right time. After starting the season with two losses, Georgia has won eight straight including key wins against the Florida Gators and the Auburn Tigers. 

Georgia is not a team that LSU can afford to discount. The Bulldogs have been clicking on offense and defense and are playing like the divisional championship team most predicted they would be. LSU has a tough test ahead of them. 

If LSU loses either of their last two games, the BCS Championship Game will look drastically different. Here are a few options.

Oklahoma State vs. Alabama

If the LSU Tigers are the only top five team in the BCS polls to lose, the Championship Bowl would pit the Oklahoma State Cowboys against the Alabama Crimson Tide. 

Oklahoma State’s obvious strength is in their passing game. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon have connected for 14 touchdowns on the season. Last week, the football team scored a mere five points less than Oklahoma State’s basketball team (66-71). The team is second in the nation in passing yards and points per game. 

Alabama’s strength is obviously their defense. The team is allowing a mere seven points per game, good for first in the country. They also have a player by the name of Trent Richardson who is pretty good in his own right. 

The game will be a classic offense versus defense matchup and Richardson could be the difference for the Crimson Tide. Either way, it will be interesting to see whether Blackmon can keep up his ridiculous level of play against such a good defense.

Oklahoma State vs. Oregon

In this scenario, both the LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide lose, opening the door for the Oregon Ducks to sneak into the championship game and play against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Alabama has a tough game against Auburn coming up and have not looked sharp since their defeat at the hands of LSU. 

Oregon has been steadily improving all season and last weekend’s matchup against the (previously) fourth ranked Stanford Cardinal was their coming out party. The Ducks dominated every facet of the game.

LaMichael James put himself firmly back in the Heisman race after running for 146 yards and three touchdowns. The team forced five Stanford turnovers including two picks of darling-boy Andrew Luck. Quarterback Darron Thomas needed just 11 completions to throw for three touchdowns. 

Based just on their performance last week, Oregon deserves a chance to compete with the best. This championship scenario would be a high-powered offensive showdown. It would not surprise me if the teams combined to score 300 points. OK, maybe that’s stretching it a bit. Either way, defense will not be a hallmark of this game.

Alabama vs. Oregon

This scenario is probably the more likely way in which the Oregon Ducks will reach the BCS Championship Game. The chances of the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide, two SEC juggernauts, both losing in the final two games of the season are not high. 

What is more conceivable is that Oklahoma State loses to their instate rival, the Oklahoma Sooners. If that happens, the polls have Alabama and Oregon facing off in New Orleans.

Again, this matchup would be an offense versus defense affair similar to Alabama versus Oklahoma State. Oregon has a better defense than Oklahoma State and has more weapons on offense. They have also already played an SEC team this year (LSU) and have some sense of the bruising defensive style they should expect from Alabama.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma

This championship game would pit two traditionally powerful programs against one another. For such a matchup, the Oklahoma Sooners would need to beat Oklahoma State. Then either the Oregon Ducks would have to lose, or the Sooners would need to be so convincing in beating Oklahoma State and the rest of their opponents that they leapfrog Oregon in the polls.

Oklahoma’s lone loss on the season was to the Texas Tech Red Raiders. In that game, they simply looked unprepared and out of sync. Aside from that game, the Sooners have beaten three ranked teams and will play two more before the season is over. Voters often give Big 12 teams support so there are many chances for them to get help in the BCS polls.

Oklahoma is a strong offensive team. Quarterback Landry Jones is a Heisman candidate and has great chemistry with his receivers. When the Sooners are locked in and playing as hard as they possibly can, they are a tough team to beat.

Arkansas Makes a Play

The above scenarios are the most likely. Any other matchups would require at least four teams to lose and with just two games left in the season, that is unlikely.

However, much stranger things have happened in BCS history. There are a few more teams who could make big jumps before bowl season. With quite a lot of help, there is a chance they could play for a championship. 

The Arkansas Razorbacks have the best opportunity to boost their stock. If they can pull off the upset and beat the LSU Tigers, their BCS ranking could skyrocket. Arkansas is currently ranked sixth in the polls and BCS voters have a tendency to give SEC schools an edge.

The biggest problem for Arkansas would be the Alabama Crimson Tide, since Alabama beat the Razorbacks earlier this year. Arkansas could hope for either Oregon or Oklahoma to lose and try to pass the other by virtue of the voters.

Despite the number of teams in front of them, Arkansas has the best chance of any outside the top five to make a run at the championship. 

Clemson Advances

The Clemson Tigers suffered a demoralizing loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets two weeks ago. If not for that game, Clemson would have been firmly in the top five in the BCS polls.

However, the Tigers can still improve their profile. Most notably, Clemson will face the South Carolina Gamecocks in their last regular season game. South Carolina is ranked 12th in the BCS. If Clemson is able to win, they will be comfortably waiting in the wings in case any of the teams above them lose.

Clemson will also have a chance in the ACC Championship game to state their case. If they can win decisively in that game and beat South Carolina, Clemson will be in a very good position. 

Boise State Gets Some Love

I know, I know. The Boise Bus has left the station and veered horribly off course for the second year in a row. There is virtually no chance that the Boise State Broncos will get to play in the BCS Championship Bowl. 

But what if they did? What if there were 10 one-loss teams in the NCAA? What if the BCS did the unthinkable and simply slid Boise State in the number two slot and had them face off against whoever came out of the messy pile on top (the Alabama Crimson Tide perhaps?)?

Boise State would finally get the chance to show the world that they are for real. Kellen Moore would be able to play on the biggest stage possible. There would be a true underdog to root for (no, Oklahoma, you are not an underdog)!

If there is no consensus top two, give Boise State a chance! It’s the right thing to do.

Last Undefeated Team Left Standing

In case the BCS read that last slide and fainted from surprise (they thought they had avoided the question of pesky, non-automatic qualifying Boise State this year), I have a more outlandish proposal.

Let the team with the most wins play for the championship! If the Houston Cougars and star quarterback Case Keenum can keep up their blistering pace, they will be 12-0 at the end of the season. 

The Cougars are first in the nation in passing yards and points per game. They have a star player and a feel-good story. But would they be able to contend with the best team in the SEC or the Big 12? What better way to answer that question than in the BCS Championship Game?

Your move, BCS. I'm waiting.