Joe Paterno Replacement: How Realistic Are Bodog's Odds for Next PSU Coach?

Due to the child sex scandal of former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky, the very foundation of the school's football program has been shaken.

Joe Paterno, who had coached the team since 1966, was fired late Wednesday night. This means that a vacancy now resides at the school that previously had the second-longest tenured head coach in major college football history.

While Tom Bradley has taken over as the interim head coach, there is no shortage of candidates to take over full time.

Online betting site Bodog.com even has placed odds on perspective coaching candidates, and the list is an impressive one. Only one person will eventually land the job, though, and it may not even be somebody mentioned by Bodog.

Here are the 11 coaches that were given odds by Bodog and my thoughts on the accuracy and likelihood of each of them.

Jon Gruden

Bodog's Odds: 51-1

Are They Right?

While Bodog is correct in that former Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Oakland Raiders head coach Jon Gruden is a long shot to coach at Penn State, I'm not even sure why he was listed. Gruden recently signed an extension to continue working in the booth for ESPN's Monday Night Football.

The job is a cushy and high-paying one for Gruden, so there is no reason to leave that for what is a very tumultuous situation at Penn State. If Gruden were to leave his job with ESPN, it would most definitely be to coach an NFL team in a setting which he is much more comfortable in.

I really can't envision any scenario in which Gruden would take on such a huge undertaking. Make no mistake, the hire would be a fantastic one for Penn State since Gruden is a quality guy, but there is simply no chance Gruden makes the move.

Our Odds: 1,000-1

Greg Schiano

Bodog's Odds: 26-1

Are They Right?

In my mind, Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano would be the perfect and most likely hire for Penn State at this point. Not only was he an assistant under Joe Paterno at Penn State in the early 1990s, but he is also a well-respected coach that has run a clean program at Rutgers.

Penn State is likely looking for brand name to hire, but it also needs to be on the safe side to ensure that no more scandals arise. Schiano would seem to be as safe as they come, but he is also fairly well known. His hard-nosed mentality just seems to mesh with the Penn State way of life.

The only thing that could hold Schiano back is his involvement with Penn State during a time when Jerry Sandusky was on staff. This could cause some to speculate about whether he knew about the scandal. I think he is a very safe hire, though, and I give him much better chances than Bodog does.

Our Odds: 4-1

Tom Bradley

Bodog's Odds: 11-1

Are They Right?

As the interim head coach at Penn State, some might consider defensive coordinator Tom Bradley to be in the driver's seat for the permanent gig. Bradley acquitted himself well in a very difficult press conference on Thursday and seems to be a stand-up guy that the players can get behind.

Even so, I think Penn State wants to be as far removed from the Jerry Sandusky scandal as possible. There is no way of knowing if Bradley had any knowledge of Sandusky's actions, but he has been on the staff since 1979 and took over as defensive coordinator when Sandusky retired in 1999.

If the Nittany Lions go on to win the Big Ten and the Rose Bowl or something to that effect, then I think the university has to give Bradley a look. Barring that, though, it is probably best to get some new blood in the picture. I consider his odds to be pretty long.

Our Odds: 30-1

Chris Petersen

Bodog's Odds: 11-1

Are They Right?

Boise State head coach Chris Petersen will leave for greener pastures at some point, but I don't think Penn State is the opportunity he has been looking for. Petersen has done nearly everything possible at Boise State, and he has little left to prove, but I think he is holding out for a more stable position.

Petersen is a high-character guy who always seems to get the most out of his players. I think he would be an ideal fit for the Nittany Lions, but there is no indication that Petersen is looking to leave at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if Penn State went hard after him, though.

There is no doubt in my mind that Petersen will get a job at a major college eventually, but Boise State is a far better option at this point. There is simply too much uncertainty surrounding Penn State. I think Bodog was pretty close on this one, although I would give Petersen a slightly lesser chance.

Our Odds: 15-1

Kirk Ferentz

Bodog's Odds: 9-1

Are They Right?

Kirk Ferentz's time as Iowa's head coach has been quite successful, but you get the feeling that Iowa is a program that can only be taken so far. Ferentz has won two Big Ten Championships during his tenure, as well as an Orange Bowl, but it seems unlikely that he will ever win the big one.

With Ferentz seemingly having done all he can at Iowa, now may be the best time to jump ship to Penn State. While Iowa is a much safer venue for him at this point, he can become the stuff of legends if he finds away to turn around Penn State's crumbling program.

Ferentz certainly knows the Big Ten, which is a nice feature, and he has probably built a nice recruiting base in the Midwest that would be beneficial to Penn State. Ferentz may be happy where he is, but I think it is a good fit and a very real possibility.

Our Odds: 6-1

Dan Mullen

Bodog's Odds: 9-1

Are They Right?

Although he has been a head coach for only three seasons at Mississippi State, Dan Mullen is already highly respected for both his recruiting capability and his work with quarterbacks. Mullen had many stops prior to Mississippi State, and he was responsible for coaching signal-callers such as Alex Smith and Tim Tebow.

The Nittany Lions have been offensively challenged this season and are in dire need of a quarterback, so from a football perspective, Mullen makes a lot of sense. He would also be a good hire because he doesn't have much of a head coaching background, so his history is very clean.

Mullen would likely jump at the chance to move on to the prestige of Penn State since he was born and raised in Pennsylvania. Penn State needs an honest coach that is going to work hard, and Mullen appears to be just that. I like his chances slightly better than Bodog does.

Our Odds: 7-1

Pat Fitzgerald

Bodog's Odds: 7-1

Are They Right?

Young, upstart Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald has done a lot of good things over his six seasons with the school. A Northwestern alum, Fitzgerald likely views Northwestern as his dream coaching job, but the allure of Penn State could change his mind.

Fitzgerald possesses a lot of great qualities that would make him a good choice for Penn State. Not only is he young and energetic, but he is tough and trustworthy, making him an ideal fit for the university. Penn State needs a model citizen at this point, and Fitzgerald has been just that.

It's hard to say whether Fitzgerald wants to leave Northwestern, but I don't view Northwestern as having much of a ceiling from a football standpoint. Fitzgerald's hands are tied a bit in recruiting due to academic standards, so he might leap at the chance to go to Penn State. I really like this possible partnership.

Our Odds: 5-1

Kevin Sumlin

Bodog's Odds: 13-2

Are They Right?

Kevin Sumlin has helped the Houston Cougars reach new heights during his four-year tenure at the school, and he is now being mentioned as a possible candidate at Penn State. Sumlin has certainly done his finest coaching job this season, as the Cougars sit at 10-0 and have entered the BCS picture.

Sumlin also coached Houston to 10 wins in 2009, so he is no one-year wonder. Provided Houston goes undefeated or close to it this season, Sumlin will have done everything possible for the program. Quarterback Case Keenum will be graduating as well, meaning a decline will be in order.

With that in mind, I don't think there is any question Sumlin would jump ship if given the right opportunity. At the same time, I get the feeling that Penn State is looking for somebody with more of a major-college pedigree. Sumlin would be a safe hire, but I'm not sure he would be the ideal one.

Our Odds: 8-1

Mike London

Bodog's Odds: 6-1

Are They Right?

Virginia head coach Mike London is an honorable guy and a great motivator to be sure, but I don't believe he has a good enough background to be considered by Penn State. London is only in his second season at Virginia, and he hasn't been particularly successful, although he is still trying to get his players on board.

London had great success at the FCS level, as he led his alma mater, the Richmond Spiders, to the FCS Championship in 2008. Success at that level doesn't necessarily translate to FBS, however. I think London would take the Penn State job in a heartbeat, but I'm not sure Penn State wants him.

There is no question that London would be an exceedingly safe hire, and perhaps that is exactly what Penn State wants, but I think they want a coach that is both clean and has a real track record of success. London is a possibility, but I wouldn't count on it.

Our Odds: 12-1

Al Golden

Bodog's Odds: 11-2

Are They Right?

Al Golden's first season as Miami (FL) head coach hasn't gone exactly to plan, with a record of 5-4, but he has had to deal with a recruiting scandal from the previous regime. Golden did an excellent job turning around a Temple Owls team that was among the worst in the nation, so I think he can have success at Miami.

Golden played at Penn State and was the school's linebacker coach in 2000. Because of that Penn State is likely Golden's ideal destination, but I don't think the timing is right. Miami is just as prestigious as Penn State, if not more, so I doubt he will want to leave after just one season.

If Golden goes from Miami to Penn State, then he will just be going from bad to worse in terms of controversy. I think Penn State would love to nab Golden, and I think the university will go hard after him because he is an upstanding Penn State guy. I just don't think Golden will leave Miami so abruptly.

Our Odds: 14-1

Urban Meyer

Bodog's Odds: 3-1

Are They Right?

I don't think there is any question that Penn State's dream hire would be former Florida Gators head coach Urban Meyer. During his time at Florida, Meyer won two national championships and did it the right way. He has won at every stop during his career, and he has been a model coach as well.

Not only would Meyer be a great representative for Penn State, but he would also give them a great chance to remain a winning program. After retiring to tend to health problems and spend more time with his family, though, I'm not sure why he would enter a situation as stressful as Penn State's.

Meyer is still making a nice living as a college football analyst, and he has already done everything there is to do as a coach. Penn State's only hope is if the allure of replacing a legend like Joe Paterno and rebuilding a program appeals to Meyer. I honestly don't think it will, and I certainly believe that Penn State fans and prognosticators are getting their hopes up.

Our Odds: 20-1