NFL Week 10: 30 Stats You Must Know

Divisional races are getting tight, and this week could be make-it-or-break-it time for teams wishing to still be here after Week 17.

Last week was a strong showing with successful tips, and if you took the three-leg multi, again you'd be a winner. We're at 100 percent for the year there, so worth getting on to.

You know the drill—letters and numbers and an overall summary for every game. If you're even thinking about dropping a dollar on a game this weekend, you must read these stats.

Then that dropped dollar won't go to waste. And if you run into Aloe Blacc, you can give him as many dollars out of your winnings as you would like.

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Letters:

So I missed the early game. You'll just have to make do without that. The Atlanta Falcons will be encouraged by the way they moved the ball around last week, even if it was only against the Indianapolis Colts. A home game here will give them some momentum. New Orleans on the other hand, will be fresh after last week's rest and the bye could be invaluable in getting players back from injury - most notably Mark Ingram.

Numbers:

Drew Brees and the offense (as expected) are putting up nearly 32 points per game and 400 yards of offense. Simply put, whether Ingram plays or not will not matter on this game - there is no way the Atlanta defense can contain the Saints' offense, especially when the ball is in the air.

Overall:

Injuries to the defensive line of Atlanta are not ideal for this game; Brees and the offense could run riot here if they please. I've got a feeling though, that as the Patriots and Packers D struggles, the Saints could use this as a statement game and hold out the Chiefs line. So low-er scoring game than we've come to expect from the Saints, but still a comfortable win. New Orleans by 10.

Tennessee @ Carolina

Letters:

It's always difficult to figure out how a team coming off the bye is going to respond, but when they have a dynamic player in their team like Cam Newton, it's not as hard. Newton has been the revelation of the year, and even if he's not winning every single game, the numbers he's putting up are astounding and will put him in great stock for the future. Tennessee on the other hand crashed and bashed against Cincinnati all game last week but were unable to come out with a win. I think they could be a bit sore and sorry for themselves and are not ready to play against a fast-moving offense than the Panthers are running.

Numbers:

The Tennessee Titans 19.5 points per game on offense, and the 240 yards they're averaging in the air is solid, but is going to be tested against a surprisingly strong Carolina pass defense - allowing 225.5 yards per game. Tennessee is also not crash against defending the run, allowing 110.6 yards per game and Carolina, you guessed it, doesn't mind giving Cam's arm a rest sometimes, rushing for nearly 130 yards per game.

Overall:

I don't mind Tennessee, I really don't. I think they've got a good team and have lots of promise, but in this game, I simply can't see them getting the ball of Carolina. Newton is just too good for the Titans defense and after a tough loss last week, the Titans will not cope with the fast-paced Carolina offense. Being back at home should also suit the Panthers in this one. If Hassleback doesn't play, then it's a no-brainer; if he does, it's still Carolina by 7.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Letters:

It would have been a long night in Pittsburgh last Monday and Steelers players will not be forgetting that loss in a long time. Ben Roethlisberger moved the ball well against the strong Ravens' defense and he will be able to do the same against another strong defense in the Bengals. Cincinnati have been somewhat of a revelation this year, with Andy Dalton going from strength to strength every week. The Pittsburgh defense still needs to have questions asked about it, as I wrote earlier in the week, and the injury to Troy Polamalu - should he not play - will not help this cause.

Numbers:

In what looms as the battle of the defense, the Steelers will have no fears after last's week came against the Baltimore defense. So the question this week is whether Dalton will continue to step up or whether Big Ben is going to show his class. He's putting up 278.8 yards in the air compared to Dalton's 212.1 yards, and this could be the difference of this game. Interestingly however, Cincinnati are still outscoring Pittsburgh 24.4 points per game to 21.8 points despite the difference in offensive yards.

Overall:

You're looking at a very close game, but of very high quality. Both these QB's are strong, and this game could go a long way in determining who wins the divisional race. I can't see the Steelers losing two games in a row though, especially two divisional games, and when the pressure is on, the real men step up. Big Ben will do just that and lead his team back into the winners circle. Pittsburgh by 5.

St. Louis @ Cleveland

Letters:

Peyton Hillis looks set to miss this game with that hamstring injury, and could hurt the Browns in what looks like a street-fight matchup - especially considering Montario Hardesty is already out. The success the Rams have had running the ball has been well documented, and after watching them take out the Saints a few weeks back, I'm never ready to rule out the Rams. If Sam Bradford returns - which I believe he will - the Rams will feel the stronger side and will take that confidence out on Cleveland.

Numbers:

The Browns' defense has been strong all year - 21.2 points allowed per game, 165.2 passing yards allowed and 96.5 rushing yards allowed. Somehow though, I can't see them scoring more than 2 TD's and a field goal or two all game and I can see the Rams scoring more than that. The measly 222.2 passing yards the Rams are allowing will also hold them in good stead for this game.

Overall:

The Cleveland defense is better. With the injuries to Cleveland and Bradford's return, the St. Louis offense is better. The coin has been flipped and comes down St. Louis. Rams by 1.

Buffalo @ Dallas

Letters:

Most people - including myself - thought that Buffalo would clean up the Jets last week in a tight divisional game, and when they didn't, I wonder if it was because Buffalo were so poor, or the Jets were so good. Considering they play the Patriots this week, I'm inclined to think it was the latter and give the Bills another chance here. Tony Romo will play, but how much longer those ribs are going to hold up is anybody's guess.

Numbers:

Whilst Dallas have been strong as per usual offensively (279.5 passing yards and 120.8 rushing yards), for those type of numbers, they're not converting them into big scores - averaging only 22.4 points per game. On the flip side, the Bills are averaging basically 50 yards less per game across the board, but are putting up over 5 points per game more than Dallas.

Overall:

The Dallas offense could have field day against the Buffalo D, but I still can't see them turning it into enough points to win the game. Buffalo will still be thinking about the poor performance they put in last week, and the offense will show us again the class its been showing for the last few weeks. If Dallas can restrict Buffalo like the Jets did, they win. If they don't, they can't score enough points to match it with the Bills. OT. Dallas win by 3 and Romo gets some confidence back.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Letters:

Colts. Manning. Frustrating. Probably sums it up there.

Jacksonville. No offense. Good defense. Probably sums it up there too.

Numbers:

There's going to be a lot of running in this game. Like, a lot. Both teams are averaging over 100 yards rushing per game, but if it could get worse, both are also averaging well over 100 yards allowed per game. The Indy D has been terrible, no question (31.4 points per game, One billion yards allowed), but the Jacksonville offense has been just as poor (12.2 points per game) so they shouldn't have too many worries there.

Overall:

This is - without a doubt - Indianapolis' best chance at getting a win this season. At home against an average offense. The only issue will be whether they can get enough yards and turn it into enough points against a strong Jacksonville defense. 10 points could probably win it for either side, and the Colts will be gearing up for a strong home performance to give their fans something to smile about. Those fans though, will just have to wait, as the Jaguars' D proves to be too good and too strong. Jacksonville by 5.

Denver @ Kansas City

Letters:

There's this guy, he's kind of flown under the radar a little and is quietly changing the dynamic of Denver. Okay, so it's not that quiet and not that secret. How Tebow is a starting QB in the NFL still blows my mind, but as long as he keeps winning, he can stay. Kansas City will be furious at last week's events - a home loss to the Miami Dolphins by 30 points. Another home game here gives them a chance to make ammends.

Numbers:

With both Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee ran for a combined 281 yards last week, against Oakland, who defend the run relatively well. Against a Kansas City side giving up 120.2 yards per game, they could have another field day. The Chiefs struggling offense needs to step up from the 16.4 points per game and needs to get their 189.5 passing yards per game up over the 200-mark if they are to keep pace in the division - made interesting by an Oakland win.

Overall:

I don't like Tim Tebow. But at the end of the day, the Broncos will run the ball and the Chiefs can't stop them. End of story. Kansas City will look to lift up a gear in front of a home crowd, but if Miami can put 30 points on you, then Denver can too. And a little bit more. Denver win by 20 and Tebowmania continues for a little bit longer.

Washington @ Miami

Letters:

Watching Miami play last week was incredible. They're not good; but they have some heart and simply refuse to lie down. Tony Sparano is doing something for that team. Two WR's are out for Washington, including Santana Moss which could hurt their chances moving the ball. Miami will be tough to beat at home, especially after the big boost of last week's win.

Numbers:

After starting the year so strongly, Washington's offense has slumped to only 15.9 points per game, 228.2 passing yards and 89.9 rushing yards. Whilst Miami is not any better, the 115.6 yards rushing they're gaining per game could go a long way to winning this one for them, especially considering the 122.6 rushing yards the Redskins are allowing.

Overall:

Sometimes it's the ugly games that end up being the great games, and I think this could be one of them. Both are simply playing for pride and will see this as a game they should win. After last week's performance, the better ground game and a home crowd, Miami will salute the faithful for a second week in a row. Miami by 8.

Arizona @ Philadelphia

Letters:

Arizona won last week. Philly lost to Chicago last week. Only a brave soul would have picked both of those performances. Kevin Kolb still has a niggling toe injury and is questionable for this game, and the Cardinals need him if they have any chance at stopping an Eagles side out to make amends for last week. And I think Kolb receives his fair share of punishment even if he does play, just so that the Eagles let him know who's still the boss of him.

Numbers:

This game is going to come down to the Philly offense against the Arizona defense, and it's not looking good for the Cards in this one. 272 passing yards allowed and 132.4 rushing yards allowed doesn't make for pretty reading, especially when it's coming against 262.1 passing yards per game and a monstrous 172.2 rushing yards per game. This one could get ugly.

Overall:

Philly need a win here, just to get some confidence back, and they couldn't have asked for a better game than the Cardinals and their poor defense, in Philly. They win comfortably and come real close to cracking the 250 rushing yards in this game. Eagles by 19.

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Letters:

Tipped by many to win the division even before we knew Manning wouldn't play, Houston are playing strong, consistent football and are quietly making a strong play to be there in Indianapolis later in the year. Tampa Bay however, on the back of Albert Haynesworth, will be looking for a strong home performance against a Texans side carrying a lot of injuries.

Numbers:

The Texans defensive unit has been the focus of many sentences like this with their 17.4 points per game allowed and 182.1 passing yards allowed. The difference this year, is the strength of their offense - putting up 26.2 points per game, as well as over 150 rushing yards per game. Tampa's D will really need to step up against the run this week if they have a shot of taking down Houston because the 117.8 yards per game they're currently allowing is not going to cut it.

Overall:

The Bucs could come out this week and play the football we know they can play - like when they took down the Saints - but they won't. Haynesworth will be solid, but the runners will run straight by him all day and there will be nothing Tampa Bay can do to plug the leak. Houston will win - as they should - and Arian Foster will have another field day. Houston by 10.

Baltimore @ Seattle

Letters:

What last week's win did for the Baltimore Ravens cannot be put into words. Whilst they have struggled in these "should win" games throughout the year, see Jacksonville and Tennessee, the Ravens look too good and too strong for the Seattle side. Tarvaris Jackson is potentially the flop of the year, and I can't see him hanging in there with Joe Flacco and the offense, or Lewis and the defense.

Numbers:

15.2 points per game, 207.9 passing yards, 88.2 rushing yards. Baltimore's defense or the Seattle offense? It's actually a good question. For those playing along at home, it's the Seattle Seahawks and scarily, Baltimore's defense is probably actually a little bit better than those numbers, allowing only 192.6 passing yards and 86.8 rushing yards.

Overall:

Baltimore score and Seattle don't. Story of the game. Baltimore will show the class and will be too switched on off last week's victory to slip up here. Ravens win 24-3.

Detroit @ Chiacgo

Letters:

Matthew Stafford has been brilliant behind his defense and O-line this year for the lions, but a tricky game presents itself this week - playing Chicago at home after a big win against Philly. The Detroit defense front line will be looking to big apart a fragile Bears unit, and will relish another opportunity to put Jay Cutler into the ground. Which he has been put once or twice this year.

Numbers:

The Lions' offense has been explosive this year, hitting 29.9 points per game and the 220.9 passing yards, 120.9 rushing yards Chicago is putting up per game doesn't appear to be enough to win this game. Especially when they're allowing over 260 passing yards per game. Stafford and the offense look to be too good against the Chicago defense.

Overall:

If Chicago are going to win this game, they're going to have to hang on to the ball for a long, long time and give Stafford and the offense less time with the ball. Matt Forte is going to have to have another huge game and carry his team if they want to win, but against the penetration and pressure that the Lions bring, he won't be able to do it here. Detroit by 9.

NY Giants @ San Francisco

Letters:

Whilst the New England, NY Jets game is game of the week - and rightly so - this game goes a long way in understand who will be there next year and who will be coming out on top. Both these teams look like making the playoffs and if the Giants can chalk up a victory, Eli Manning will prove he really is a quality quarterback. I'm not sold on last week's performance - hitting a wide-open tight end against the Patriots pass defense does not make you great, it makes you good. Taking down the San Francisco defense in San Francisco - that makes you great.

Numbers:

San Francisco have been strong this year defensively, but the 255.1 passing yards allowed seems like a big weakness against Manning, and the 282.9 passing yards the Giants are achieving per game. The run defense is strong, but the Giants themselves are not a strong running team, so this is negated a little. Offensively for the 49ers, Alex Smith has been solid, but on the back of 137.6 rushing yards, rather than 173.5 passing yards per game. Against the Giants' defense and the 102.2 rushing yards they're currently conceeding per game, this looms as a pivotal statistic for this game.

Overall:

Manning and the Giants are riding high after last week's courageous victory, and San Francisco is by far the revelation of the season. Just how good Harborough has got his side will be shown, but I can see Manning beating the 49ers pass defense, and I can also see San Francisco struggling against the Giants rush defense. New York step up and chalk up a victory here, and Manning proves the critics wrong. Alex Smith plays solid, doesn't throw a pick, but doesn't throw much else and the Giants win a low scoring game. Giants by 4.

New England @ NY Jets

Letters:

I can't remember the last time the New England Patriots lost three big games in a row. I mean, this is the Patriots. The offense scores more than the defense allows and they win games - that's how it's supposed to go. However, a couple of significant losses will either bury the Patriots moral, or will simply make them angry. Which one will happen will determine who goes home in celebration.

Numbers:

The Jets' defense is really starting to find its groove, allowing only 20.4 points per game (and it's falling rapidly) as well as 196 passing yards. Whilst both of these numbers should rise against Tom Brady and the offense, the defense of the Jets is what's winning games for them, with their offense still struggling - racking up only 209.5 passing yards and 96.6 rushing yards per game. The poor defense of the Patriots should help both of these numbers rise though.

Overall:

In rivalry games like these, all statistics go out the window in my book. You can be the best but if the other team hates you enough and wants to beat you bad enough, they will. So I'm not concerned with the Patriots defense and I'm not concerned with the Jets offense. Tom Brady still has the class to get his team over the line as he's shown us already many times this season, and whilst the Jets are coming and ready for the Patriots, I still think that the Patriots live for these games and sweep the series. Brady has a big night and the defense finally comes up with some big plays. The Jets red-zone inabilities come back to bite them as a late Patriots touchdown seals the win. New England by 9.

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Letters:

Aaron Rodgers is good. Just in case you have been living under a rock for ten or so weeks this year and all of last year - he's really good. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers managed to cause issues for the Packers secondary last week, as did the Vikings the last time these two played. I don't think the Packers are perfect yet. I'll be writing tomorrow about ten things they can improve on for this game - notably they need to up the killer instinct and they need to to get better pressure on QB's. Both of these are an issue against the Vikings - they failed to kill them off last time they played, and they failed to get enough pressure.

Numbers:

News flash!! The Packers are now under 300 passing yards per game for the season. The D is back! Okay, so they're hitting 299.6 passing yards and the defense is definitely not back yet. The 182.2 passing yards the Vikings are putting up is probably some welcome relief for the green and yellow, and they should have no trouble moving the ball against the 273.6 passing yards allowed of Minnesota.

Overall:

Green Bay will win, but I want to say that this is closer than it should be. The Pack, at home, against the Vikings - they should live for this game, and the way these two teams are playing, they should win by 50. They won't, because they're not as strong in some departments as last year. Christian Ponder is the best thing this Minnesota team has going for it at the moment and he'll have a strong game, but expect the Pack to find a way to pick him off at least twice. There's something about this game that unsettles me for the Packers. There's a storm coming one way or the other - it's either going to fall on the Packers who will be forced to fight for a win, or it will fall on the Vikings who will be forced to fight for a point. I'm leaning towards the first one, but the class of the Packers gets them over the line. Green Bay by 10.

3 Final Thoughts.

Final three thoughts. Take them or leave them.

1. Plenty of games this week will be won by teams who have heart rather than skill. I'm thinking of Miami, Denver and Jacksonville here. The whole champion team beats a team of champions thing? Well, not always, but it is true for this week.

2. There could be a couple of extremely high scoring games followed by some very low scoring ones. Jags and the Colts will be low. Rams and the Bengals will be low. Denver and Kansas will be high; Detroit and Chicago will be high; as will the Minnesota Green Bay game.

3. Three legs - 100% for the season in this department so if you're up for making some easy money, take them and go for it. You're going to want Carolina to beat Tennessee, Baltimore to take down Seattle and Denver to take it to Kansas City. Because I love you, I'm also going to give you a strong suggestion of taking the over points in the Detroit / Chicago game.

Go well this week and let's hope for winners all round!