Easy Handicapping for College Football's Conference Races

It’s now early November, which, besides being a brief, thoroughly generic emo band from New Jersey I think I may have interviewed during my college radio days, is also the time in which we know enough about teams to make wild assumptions about the rest of their seasons. It also gives me ample room to figure out which team will lose a big game and have a Fratty McBroFan in tears with his shirt slowly untucking as the reality of his football evening sinks in.

(Side Note: I know it’s tradition at certain schools for bros to put on a nice shirt for a football game, but know ahead of time your tears are a lot funnier when we see how seriously you take a loss in HD.)

Anyway, this is all just a fun way of saying we have some fun conference races ahead, so...LET THE RACE WARS BEGIN!! Wait, let’s just start (alphabetically):

ACC

Both divisions probably get decided this week with the Coastal coming down to the battle of the Techies (slight edge: Virginia’s Techies) and the Atlantic has Clemson/Wake Forest (terrified edge: Clemson) to decide who gets to be part of Darren Rovell’s tweet about how cheap StubHub seats are in Charlotte.

Completely Arbitrary Odds

Clemson: 4-1

Virginia Tech: 6-1

Georgia Tech: 9-1

Wake Forest: 25-1

A Duke Fan’s Particularly Awesome Sunglass Strap: 125-1 

Big East

Even though Cincinnati’s alone atop the standings, they’ve actually played fewer Big East games than they have conference games remaining, including dates against Rutgers and West Virginia, two of the teams within striking distance. Also, the Big East hates when people think they have a grasp on the quality of their teams, so feeling confident about anything here is a waste of time. 

At the time of publishing, you should know that West Virginia and Rutgers can’t stop much on the ground and Cincinnati struggles when the other team has balls in the air (I giggled, too). Louisville’s intriguing, but they’re starting a true freshman QB with an awesome name (Teddy Bridgewater) and have already lost to Cincy (but beat Rutgers and WVU). Got all that? Good, because I’m still lost.

Completely Arbitrary Odds

Cincinnati: 5-1

West Virginia: 7-1

Rutgers: 8-1

Louisville: 10-1

DePaul or Marquette’s Nonexistent Programs: 20-1

Big Ten 

This one’s tough—Penn State, aside from the horrendous events off the field, has a two game Leaders Division lead entering the toughest part of their conference schedule (vs. Nebraska, at OSU, at Wisc). Assume this lead dwindles amidst distractions and road difficulties.

Ohio State has the Wisconsin tiebreaker, but will probably struggle to consistently move the ball against Penn State and general weirdness is to be expected when the Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor.

Wisconsin needs Nebraska to beat Penn State on the road, beat Penn State themselves at home and have the Nittany Lions to beat Ohio State—not completely unreasonable requests, just numerous ones. Going to Illinois appeared to be tricky a month ago, but a Zookening has seemingly smoothed things over for the Badgers in Champaign. 

As exciting as it is to watch Michigan with Denard Robinson, I feel good about eliminating them after re-watching the Wolverines with four chances inside the 5-yard line against Iowa. Too soon.

Nebraska walking away with a trophy isn’t completely unreasonable, but at this point, they’re Michigan with a better defense. Three moderately difficult games to close the season after the Northwestern game (and first half) is worrisome.

The great fun of Iowa is they’ve chosen to only lose to teams (Minnesota, Penn State) that have no effect on divisional tiebreakers (though conference tiebreakers exist). Crafty.

Even with their bad loss at Nebraska, it’s entirely possible that Michigan State going to Iowa City could be a de facto Legends Final for the Spartans, with the Spartans only otherwise left with Indiana and Northwestern, and Iowa having to close the season out on the road (sad face) in Lincoln to play Big Red. 

Completely Arbitrary Odds

Michigan State 8-1

Penn State 10-1

Nebraska 12-1

Ohio State 13-1

Iowa 15-1

Wisconsin 16-1

Whoever William Gholston Says 34-1

Big 12

For all the noise that’s come out of the Lone Star State (networks, realignments, Robert Griffindors, etc), it’s nice to see the recently-quaked state of Oklahoma competing with itself for the rights to both a conference and/or national crown.

Mind you, there are good enough reasons to take Texas and Kansas State seriously as legitimately decent Big 12 squads, but they’ve just taken themselves out of conference contention with, well, losses.

The Longhorns are probably the better of the two because of their defense and (possibly) emerging ground game, but the next four weeks (three of four on the road, with Kansas State in Austin) will do far more to give us an idea about Texas going into next season than anything in this paragraph can.

Both Oklahoma schools have big offenses and have a common opponent in Iowa State, who, at the very least, is feisty and isn’t terrible against the pass, but isn’t all that inspiring against the run.

The long ago-circled Bedlam game in Stillwater should decide the conference (possible trap: Oklahoma at Baylor Nov. 19) with the national championship very much in play. The game’s shaping up to be big enough that I hope the Longhorn Network at least acknowledges its existence at some point before the December 3 kickoff. 

Completely Arbitrary Odds

Oklahoma 3-1

Oklahoma State 4-1

A Team Leaving for the SEC (incalculable)

Pac-12

The North has the cache (Stanford and Oregon) and the South has, well, the South has UCLA controlling its own destiny. It’s that kind of year for the new and exciting Pac-12.

The Ducks and the Cardinal of course should settle things this weekend in the North, and thus, probably the entire Pac-12. The game essentially comes down to who has more cleverly masked some weaknesses (both run defenses may appear better than they actually are) and if Oregon’s speed can once again overcome Stanford’s power.

In the South, UCLA has the tougher road (including at USC) than Arizona State, but owns the tiebreaker.

As a final note, if you haven’t followed the inaugural Pac-12 seasons of Utah and Colorado, they’re a combined 2-10 in conference play. Realignment!

Completely Arbitrary Odds 

Oregon 2-1

Stanford 5-2

Arizona State 13-1

UCLA 44-1

Colorado’s Ultimate Frisbee Team 750-1

Colorado 800-1

SEC

The mighty SEC West isn’t exactly what people may have had in mind in August, but it’s still given us two of the best five teams in the country, which feels significant enough.

Alabama’s essentially without a shot to win the division unless LSU gets cocky and fields seven players on defense against Ole Miss (still a close game).

Even if Arkansas wins out (including a victory over LSU), it still needs Iron Bowl help from Auburn to take the West. 

In the East, Georgia controls its future with two home games left (Auburn, Kentucky). I take that back—Georgia controls its future until LSU DE Sam Montgomery is forced to pick the red fibers from Georgia RB Isaiah Crowell’s jersey out of his cleats.

Technically South Carolina still has a shot, what with their tiebreaking head-to-head win over Georgia. Unfortunately, I’ve seen their post-Lattimore offense and you’ve seen their post-Lattimore offense. Let’s all just trust our eyes on this one.

Completely Arbitrary Odds 

LSU 2-1

Georgia 10-1

Arkansas 12-1

Alabama 16-1

South Carolina 25-1

The Tears of Sad SEC Frat Bro 45-1

Dan Rubenstein co-hosts The Solid Verbal college football podcast and can be followed on Twitter here.