2012 NFL Draft: Will This Be the Real Year of the Quarterback?

Drafting a QB in the early rounds is always a risk.  For every Peyton Manning there is at least
one Ryan Leaf and often more.  ESPN tried to promote the 2011 NFL draft as the year of the QB but when Stanford QB Andrew Luck decided to stay in school, the drama dropped significantly. 

There is no question that a lot of NFL teams need good QBs.  The problem this year is that all the really promising guys have college eligibility remaining.  Another problem is that the Colts currently
lead in the Lose for Luck chase.  But the Colts have a QB that plans to play for several years and the organization does not seem to have the guts to trade him.

Andrew Luck, Stanford (Redshirt Junior)

Luck has it all.  He is 6'4" and 235.  He is the son of former NFL quarterback Oliver Luck so he has been around the game from a young age. 

He has a well-above-average arm, great anticipation and is a natural leader.  He has played in a pro-style offense so he will not have the learning curve to adapt to being under center.  The one thing that makes him unique is that he throws his WRs open, which very few college QBs can do. 

While often the hype about a player is just that, Luck is the most complete QB coming out of college since Peyton Manning.  He is clearly the top pick but he has already spent his redshirt year on the sidelines watching.  Would he come out if the Colts have the first pick?  I don’t think
so. 

I suspect he would return to Stanford because he does enjoy college life.

Landry Jones, Oklahoma (Redshirt Junior)

I rank Jones second on my QB list.  He is classic size at 6'4" and 240.  His arm is not as strong as Luck’s or Barkley’s, but is above average in the NFL.  He reads the field well and will find the guy with single coverage.  He will move a little to avoid the rush but does not anticipate the blitz as well as
Luck. 

Jones will face a decision.  He will lose his top WR Broyles who is a senior and has suffered a season-ending injury.  The loss to Texas Tech has put his coming out in 2012 in doubt.  He has some unfinished business and may stay in school to try to win a title.

Matt Barkley, USC (Junior)

Barkley can come out and is expected to.  Barkley has a slightly stronger arm in my opinion than Jones but not quite as strong as Luck.  He does not see the field as well as either, and often trusts his arm too
much.  He will throw into a crowd thinking he can get the ball there. 

He plays in a mixture of the spread and pro offense so he is a little more used to taking snaps under center.  He is also not as accurate as either of the other two and will miss a wide open WR on occasion.  In the NFL, the QB must hit a guy wide open because those chances for a big play do not come that often.  I would suggest that Barkley stay in school for his senior year to be better prepared to play at the next level.

Robert Griffin III, Baylor (Junior)

I like him better than most draft analysts.  However, he really needs to stay in school because he is just now becoming a top college QB.  He has played a lot in three seasons.  His yards and competition percentages have improved in his last two years. 

He is a good size at 6'2" and 220 and has a rocket for an arm.  His touch on short passes needs to be improved as does his ability to read the field.  The Baylor offense reads the defensive formation from the press box so he does not have to make pre-snap reads. 

So there is a lot of potential talent at QB that might come into the 2012 draft.  The issue is if the
Colts get the top pick, how many of those that have eligibility remaining will decide to come out and sit behind Peyton Manning for several years waiting to get their chance? 

While it clearly helps a QB to sit for at least a year behind a vet, few players that have been in the spotlight since they were in pee wee football are willing to sit in the shadows. 

There is also pressure from the fans.  The Colts will not be pressured to start a rookie over a healthy Manning.  The Colts fans have seen the team totally crumble without their signal-caller.  They will be so happy to get a healthy Manning back that they will not care if a rookie QB starts or sits.  However, in most cases the fans will want to see the new, high first-round pick start.

There is also a question of how much pressure Manning will put on the organization to trade the pick for a treasure chest full of choices to get him more help.  A trade could bring up to three first-round and three second-round picks.  The lack of talent on the winless Colts roster has been exposed.  Manning will want to get another shot at a championship before he retires and it will be nearly impossible with this roster.   

So will this be the year of the QB in the NFL draft?  Yes, but I would not be surprised if the Colts
win the top pick that both Luck and Jones will decide to go back to play their senior years.  Then it will be the year of some of the QBs.