2011 College Football: Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Week 11 of the college football season just got a lot more interesting with the BCS standings dropping the Alabama Crimson Tide just a single spot after their 9-6 loss to the LSU Tigers as five-point home favorites.

The Boise State Broncos and Stanford Cardinal will get an opportunity of potentially moving above the Crimson Tide with victories this week, hosting quality opponents on Saturday.

Underdogs are slightly ahead for the year with a 292-285-2 against-the-spread record, including a 90-79-1 ATS mark when playing at home.

Let's take a closer look at some of the key games across the country from a betting perspective.

Northern Illinois at Bowling Green

The Northern Illinois Huskies are 0-2 against the spread already this season when laying points on the road, so I'm not exactly jumping at the chance of doing it here, especially with this being their third consecutive game away from Dekalb.

Bowling Green has dropped four of five games in straight-up fashion, but has covered both chances as home underdogs this season.

Pick: Bowling Green Falcons (+8)

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

Let's just say that both coaches want to dress up as underdogs in this contest, especially Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson, scoring three consecutive spread victories in this series in that particular role.

Early wagering has moved the Yellow Jackets from home underdogs to slight favorites, putting me squarely on the visitor.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are 17-6 ATS on Thursdays and 20-6 ATS in November.

Pick: Virginia Tech Hokies (+1)

TCU at Boise State

It seems like forever since the Boise State Broncos handed the Georgia Bulldogs a 35-21 defeat as three-point neutral-site favorites in the season opener on Sept. 3 inside the Georgia Dome.

TCU has been torched for 90 combined points in losses to the Baylor Bears and SMU Mustangs this season—two teams that possess balanced attacks offensively.

Plenty of motivation for the host here due to being slighted in the BCS standings this week.

Pick: Boise State Broncos (-13)

Miami-FL at Florida State

The Florida State Seminoles tallied a 45-17 win over the Miami Hurricanes last year as 5.5-point road underdogs, but only won the statistical battle by 47 yards.

Miami bounced back in a positive way with a 49-14 win over Duke, after dropping a 28-21 decision to the Virginia Cavaliers the week before.

That loss wasn't very surprising due to coming off a win over Georgia Tech just four days earlier.

The underdog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Pick: Miami Hurricanes (+10)

Michigan State at Iowa

Oddsmakers are setting up a home underdog trap here, especially with the Iowa Hawkeyes just handing the Michigan Wolverines a 24-16 road loss this past week.

Michigan State also carries in major revenge from last year's 37-6 blowout loss in this series when getting 6.5 points.

No early line movement off the key number signifies to me that the Spartans are the right side.

Pick: Michigan State Spartans (-3)

Oregon at Stanford

I feel like I'm arriving late to the party, but I'm going to lay the short number on Stanford, as the team is 9-0 ATS on the year.

The Cardinal should instruct the grounds crew to allow the grass to grow in Palo Alto this week, which could help in slowing down the Oregon Ducks high-speed attack.

Oddsmakers have taken a beating with bettors profiting off the Cardinal in 2011, but they also couldn't send out the Ducks as major underdogs.

Pick: Stanford Cardinal (-3)

UCF at Southern Miss

The Central Florida Knights have had this game circled on the schedule since suffering a 31-21 defeat as 10.5-point home favorites in last year's meeting.

Southern Miss has covered seven consecutive games, but that streak will be ended due to the program coming in with a 4-12 ATS mark as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points.

It also helps that the road team has come away with the cash in the last four meetings.

Pick: Central Florida Knights (+10.5)

Alabama at Mississippi State

The Alabama Crimson Tide suffered a 9-6 loss to the LSU Tigers last week as five-point home favorites, which makes this line very surprising.

Mississippi State was a 3.5-point home underdog when dropping a 19-6 decision to the Tigers earlier this year on Sept. 15, getting out-gained by 168 yards.

Something tells me that the oddsmakers expect Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban to get his team motivated after falling just a single spot in the BCS standings.

Roll Tide.

Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide (-17)

Texas at Missouri

The Texas Longhorns are still flying under the radar this season, covering five of six wins this season, which I anticipate continuing against an opponent that it has dominated in previous years.

Missouri is leaking oil defensively, allowing 699 yards of total offense in last week's 42-39 loss to the Baylor Bears, a contest that really wasn't that close if not for scoring 25 points in the final quarter.

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Pick: Texas Longhorns (-1.5)

Washington at USC

The USC Trojans will be out for revenge from last year's 32-31 loss as nine-point home favorites, but I'm afraid this is just too many points with Washington Huskies head coach Steve Sarkisian knowing Lane Kiffin well due to their time on Pete Carroll's staff.

Washington has come away with the cash in five of the last six meetings.

Pick: Washington Huskies (+13)

Nebraska at Penn State

The Las Vegas oddsmakers are sending out the Nebraska Cornhuskers as road favorites in this Big Ten Conference affair despite dropping a 28-25 contest to the Northwestern Wildcats as 17.5-point home favorites.

Definitely a surprising line, considering the Penn State Nittany Lions handed the same team a 34-24 defeat as 4.5-point road favorites two weeks earlier.

Early money is on the visitor due to the major story coming out of Happy Valley this weekend—I'm not about to go against that type of move.

Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-2.5)