College Football Bowl Projections: How BCS Rankings Shake Up Bowl Picture

College football Armageddon has come and gone, and the pecking order in the BCS Standings and the SEC have been determined for the rest of the season.

LSU finally did not win a game by 19 or more points, but the three-point victory in Tuscaloosa is more than enough to proper the Tigers to a likely appearance in the BCS National Championship Game, which is conveniently in New Orleans again, just like in 2003 and 2007, when LSU last won the title.

With week 10 in the rear-view mirror, let's take a look at how the new BCS Standings have shaken up the bowl projections for all 35 bowl games in 2011-12.  All rankings are from the current BCS top 25, as of Nov. 6.

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming vs. Missouri

Mountain West No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 7

The New Mexico Bowl kicks off the bowl season, and the final eligible team from the Mountain West will end up here (Wyoming). The Cowboys could start the festivities with a bang on the uniform Richter scale if it busts out the yellow uniforms.

Meanwhile, the Pac-12 will struggle to fill all the bowl berths thanks to two teams going to the BCS Championship Series and because of USC's postseason ban. Thus, this will be one of three open slots for major conference teams left out by regular tie-ins. One of these teams is Missouri, which will squeak into bowl eligibility with six wins.

Idaho Potato Bowl: Nevada vs. Toledo

WAC No. 1/2 vs. MAC No. 3

In this transitional season for the WAC, Nevada is far and away the best team in the conference. Even if the Wolfpack finish second in the conference race, the blue turf would love to welcome back Nevada for this game.

Toledo has endured some tough breaks this season, which will put them behind Northern Illinois and Ohio in the pecking order. However, the Rockets bring a solid offense into this game to race all over the field with the Nevada pistol. Lots of fireworks in this one.

New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State vs. UCF

Sun Belt No. 1 vs. CUSA No. 5

Arkansas State is a surprising leader in the Sun Belt, which has become accustomed to Troy taking this bowl slot nearly every year. The Red Wolves will enjoy a rare bowl appearance on the opening night of the bowl games.

Conference USA is a bit muddled with a bunch of four-win teams needing two more wins in the final three weeks to reach a bowl. One of these teams is UCF, but the Golden Knights have a favorable schedule and will be a prized capture for a bowl game, assuming it they reach six wins.

St. Petersburg Bowl: Rutgers vs. Tulsa

Big East No. 5 vs. CUSA No. 2

The final selection from the Big East this season will be a toss up between Syracuse and Rutgers, but Rutgers will likely have a better record to win this bowl berth. The Scarlet Knights have overachieved a bit this season in a wide open conference race, so this bowl will be a nice reward for Rutgers.

After Houston is taken from Conference USA, there will be a lot of debate whether Southern Miss or Tulsa deserves this next spot. The Golden Eagles are a bit closer but will be coming off a loss to Houston in the conference championship, so Tulsa will be the selection here. Tulsa would match up well with the Rutgers defense as well.

Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. Louisiana Tech

Mountain West No. 2 vs. WAC

After TCU is taken off the board and Boise State goes to the BCS, the picks will be slim for the Poinsettia Bowl. However, San Diego State will have a hometown draw to this bowl game and will be an easy selection over the other Mountain West teams.

Louisiana Tech may actually win the WAC, which will make it desirable to bowl games. Louisiana Tech will have trouble stopping the SDSU offense, but this could shape up to be a good game if the Aztecs are a bit flat at home.

Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs. California

Mountain West No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 5

With Boise State off the table, the Rose Bowl champions from a year ago will be the obvious choice for the Las Vegas Bowl. The stakes may not be as high, but do not expect the Horned Frogs to lay down for this game, as they always seem to play well in bowl games.

California will be chosen to take the short trip over to Vegas to play the Horned Frogs. The Golden Bears will relish the challenge against another elite team, but California will likely lose in such a matchup.

Hawaii Bowl: East Carolina vs. Hawaii

CUSA No. 6 vs. WAC

Hawaii is automatically slotted into this game unless the Warriors fail to be bowl eligible, and Hawaii already has locked up five of the six wins required to make it to this game. The Warriors traditionally perform well in this game thanks to the long travel and high level of distractions for the visiting team.

That visiting team will be East Carolina, as Skip Holtz leads the Pirates to another marquee bowl game. The cross-country trip will be a tough assignment, but ECU could be up to the task.

Independence Bowl: Air Force vs. Wake Forest

Mountain West No. 3 vs. ACC No. 7

Air Force still needs a win to become bowl eligible, but the Falcons are a nice television draw and will be an easy choice for the Independence Bowl.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest has the chance to play into a conference championship game and BCS bowl this weekend against Clemson. I project that this weekend's game will not go well for Wake Forest, which will drop them off the radar down to this game.

Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl: Illinois vs. Ohio

MAC No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 8

Illinois may have struggled to finish the season after a 6–0 start, but the Fighting Illini will still be a respectable test for the MAC Champion. The Detroit bowl game will be happy to finally receive a Big Ten team, something that has failed to happen many times in the long relationship with the conference.

Ohio University is on a roll and is back to looking like the MAC favorite after knocking off Temple. There are many other teams that could end up here, but Frank Solich is the best coach in the conference and should finally win a title this year.

Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. Florida State

Big East No. 3 vs. ACC No. 4

Louisville will be left to drop to this bowl after West Virginia gets picked above them, but Charlie Strong has led the Cardinals to a great season in his second year at the helm. Expect Louisville to be a perennial contender, especially in the revamped Big East.

Florida State always draws a fair amount of fans in the Southeastern part of the country, so the Seminoles will be the pick to fill the seats in Charlotte. Assuming good weather, this game could be one of the more compelling undercard games in bowl season.

Military Bowl: Miami vs. Northwestern

ACC No. 8 vs. Navy (CUSA if not available)

Call it party kids versus smart kids, or north versus south, but the lack of Navy will not be a terrible thing for the Military Bowl considering this pairing of teams. Miami struggled under the weight of NCAA penalties and a coaching change, but Al Golden will not allow Miami to be embarrassed again like last bowl season.

Northwestern comes into this game riding high after a huge upset at Nebraska last weekend.  The Wildcats should be able to procure the final two wins necessary to be an at-large bowl consideration for one of three open slots not filled by the tie-ins.

Holiday Bowl: (25) Baylor vs. Washington

Big 12 No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 3

The Holiday Bowl is one of the bigger "small" bowl games on the pre-New Year's docket, and Robert Griffin III will take his considerable talents to another bowl game this year. Although Griffin has dropped from the short list of Heisman contenders, that has nothing to do with his play, which is still outstanding and fun to watch.

Washington appeared in this game last year, but the Huskies will be more palatable than the California schools, even for a San Diego-based bowl. Washington surprisingly dominated this game a year ago and will look to hold the title for another season.

Champs Sports Bowl: (21) Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame

ACC No. 3 vs. Big East No. 2

Georgia Tech may fall a game short of playing in the ACC championship, but the Yellow Jackets have righted the ship with a big win against undefeated Clemson. A game against Notre Dame will certainly give Georgia Tech another huge opportunity on a national stage to raise the program profile.

Notre Dame will need to study well to stop the triple option attack, but most major conference teams with this long to prepare have defeated Georgia Tech. Notre Dame will not qualify for the BCS but taking the second Big East bowl slot is a nice consolation prize.

Alamo Bowl: (14) Kansas State vs. Arizona State

Big 12 No. 2/3 vs. Pac-12 No. 2

Only two years ago, the Alamo Bowl settled for the fourth picks from the Big Ten and the Big 12. Now the Alamo Bowl receives the second or third selection, and Kansas State will be the obvious choice after Texas and the Oklahoma schools go off the board.

Arizona State lost control of the South division in the Pac-12 with a loss at UCLA, but the Bruins will almost certainly slip up down the stretch to let the Sun Devils back in the conference championship. That will be enough to let Arizona State be the first team selected after Stanford and Oregon.

Armed Forces Bowl: SMU vs. BYU

CUSA No. 3 vs. BYU (Mountain West if not available)

Although Southern Miss is likely a better team than SMU, the Mustangs will get the geographical nod here to play in Fort Worth. June Jones has the Mustangs competing for bowl berths every season and SMU will continue to succeed under his leadership.

BYU is automatically slotted into this game with bowl eligibility, which was obtained this weekend.  BYU will be a tough test for SMU to overcome, even in the backyard of Texas.

Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia vs. Iowa State

Big East No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 7

West Virginia may be leaving for the Big 12 soon, but a game against Iowa State will be out of the usual at least for 2011. The Mountaineers have lost what looked like a golden opportunity to win one more BCS berth and conference championship, which will force them to New York for the holidays.

Iowa State will fall to this bowl, although Missouri may also be here assuming the Tigers win six games. The Cyclones may not be a huge draw, but Mountaineers fans will more than make up for that.

Music City Bowl: Virginia vs. Kentucky

ACC No. 6 vs. SEC No. 7

Although it seemed impossible a week ago, Kentucky now has a favorable road to getting six wins and going to yet another bowl game. The Wildcats have perfected the art of winning four easy non-conference games and grabbing a couple upsets in SEC play to end up in the postseason.

Virginia is also an unexpected surprise at six wins, and Cavaliers fans will be pleased to go anywhere this bowl season. Both teams have a relatively short trip to Nashville for this game, so expect high attendance.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Utah vs. North Carolina

Pac-12 No. 6 vs. Army (WAC if not available)

Utah will likely be the only choice left for the San Francisco-based bowl, so the Utes grab the last Pac-12 bowl slot for 2011. The season will still be considered a success, considering the jump to major conference play for the Utes.

North Carolina State will be the third at-large bowl team selected when Army and the WAC fail to fill this slot. The Wolfpack will be happy to be in any bowl game, considering the struggles after losing Russell Wilson from the team this year.

Insight Bowl: (12) Penn State vs. Texas A&M

Big Ten No. 4/5 vs. Big 12 No. 4

Penn State will be the odd team left out from the Big Ten load of Jan. 1 bowl games thanks to a late-season slump, but Joe Paterno will have the Nittany Lions ready for this tradition-packed pairing.

Texas A&M may be headed to the SEC, but the Aggies will look back on this season as a lost season, when it appeared that A&M was ready for the big stage. Penn State has a tough defense that will make the going rough for the talented Aggies offense.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: (24) Michigan vs. Texas Tech

Big Ten No. 6 vs. Big 12 No. 6

Michigan will be a huge snag for this Texas-based bowl game after the Wolverines struggle once again to close the season. However, Denard Robinson is worth the price of admission, no matter where he is playing.

Michigan will see another high-powered offense on the other side with the local Red Raiders being selected from the Big 12. Tommy Tuberville will be seeking another win against a Michigan-based team after knocking off MSU two seasons ago.

Sun Bowl: North Carolina vs. UCLA

ACC No. 4 vs. Pac-12 No. 4

North Carolina has endured another tough season marred by NCAA violations and suspensions, although this season was not as promising as 2010. However, the Tar Heels will be happy to paint the town of El Paso powder blue alongside the selection from the Pac-12, which is...

The UCLA Bruins. After a surprising win to take temporary control of the division, the Bruins will make a bowl game this year. That might not save Rick Neuheisel, but it is still better than home for the holidays.

Liberty Bowl: (11) Houston vs. Mississippi State

CUSA No. 1 vs. SEC No. 6/7

It seems like every week Case Keenum is setting or tying another NCAA record for passing the ball all over the field for the better portion of five seasons. Keenum could be coming into this game following a Heisman ceremony, and Houston could break into the BCS if Boise State slips up late.  However, that's not likely to happen.

Mississippi State will almost certainly knock off Ole Miss to get to six wins and a bowl game.  Memphis will enjoy welcoming the cowbell nation to try and slow down another star quarterback after the Bulldogs shut down Denard Robinson and Michigan a year ago.

Chick-Fil-a Bowl: (9) Clemson vs. (20) Auburn

ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3/4/5

Clemson lost the dream season last weekend, but the Tigers will rebound to make the conference championship. When Virginia Tech steals the BCS berth, Clemson will be relegated to Atlanta.

Although this will be a rematch of a regular-season game, Auburn is the natural pick to oppose the other Tigers. Auburn will relish the chance to get a little revenge from the first team to beat the Tigers in nearly two years.

TicketCity Bowl: Iowa vs. (22) Southern Miss

Big Ten No. 6 vs. CUSA

Iowa will be a nice grab for this bowl game, making the recent agreement with the Big Ten highly profitable. The Hawkeyes may fall short of a division title, but the Hawkeyes play tough, especially in bowl games.

Southern Miss has put together a nice season in Conference USA, even though Houston is taking all the headlines right now. Southern Miss will be favored in this game although the battle on the lines will be tough to win against Iowa.

Capital One Bowl: (15) Georgia vs. (18) Wisconsin

Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2

Wisconsin actually has the best chance in the Big Ten of grabbing a BCS at-large berth, but only if the Badgers fail to make the championship game. That will likely not bode well when compared with a team like Oregon that lost to two BCS bowl game qualifiers instead of a team like Ohio State.

Arkansas would be a compelling pick here, but the Capital One often takes an East division team to keep the Cotton Bowl linked to the West. This year will be no different as Georgia fans are hungry for a New Year's Day bowl.

Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs. Florida

Big Ten No. 4/5 vs. SEC No. 6

The Gator Bowl will not mind putting together two teams with first-year head coaches and more struggles than either is accustomed to, although the national championship rematch is also an interesting reason to put OSU and UF together.

This game would be a nice indicator for whether either of these programs is ready to compete with all their young talent on a national level next season. Definitely worth watching on New Year's Day.

Outback Bowl: (19) Nebraska vs. (13) South Carolina

Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3/4/5

The Outback Bowl will not know what to do with itself, having to pick between five teams all considered solid draws, but the opportunity to grab Nebraska for the first time will be too much to resist even with Michigan and Ohio State on the table.

South Carolina could come into this game on a big roll if the Gamecocks knock off Clemson in the season finale. Both teams play solid defense and should match up well against the opposing offense.

Cotton Bowl: (16) Texas vs. (8) Arkansas

Big 12 No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3/4/5

Texas may not end up third in the conference standings, but the Longhorns will be the most desirable draw behind the Oklahoma schools for the Cotton Bowl.

The Longhorns will find Arkansas on the other side of the field, as the Cotton Bowl historically takes SEC West teams for geographic rivalries. Arkansas will be a tough test for the Longhorns defense.

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

MAC No. 2 vs. Sun Belt

Northern Illinois played a tough game at Toledo and will likely make the MAC championship this season. However, the Huskies will fall short against a well-coached Ohio University team, which forces NIU to this bowl game.

Louisiana-Lafayette is yet another surprise in the Sun Belt this season, although the Ragin' Cajuns were projected to be a possible bowl team. Northern Illinois will be favored, but the long trip for the Huskies may help Louisiana have a home-field advantage.

BBVA Compass Bank Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Vanderbilt

Big East No. 4 vs. SEC (or MAC)

Pittsburgh is another Big East team with a disappointing season, falling behind surprising Louisville and Cincinnati into this bowl slot. The Panthers will need to stop the second-half collapses to avoid another upset here.

Vanderbilt will make another bowl game, which is quite an accomplishment for the Commodores program. First-year Coach James Franklin will have his team ready to take this highly winnable game, especially in SEC country.

Rose Bowl: (4) Stanford vs. (17) Michigan State

Big Ten No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 1

Stanford faces its biggest test this upcoming weekend with Oregon coming to town, but Stanford has looked better all season and should defend the home turf. That will set up a Rose Bowl appearance against someone from the Big Ten.

Now figuring out who that Big Ten opponent will be is a much more interesting question. Michigan State faces a dangerous road game at Iowa this weekend, but even with a loss there, the Spartans may end up winning the division thanks to Iowa's inconsistency. Unless Wisconsin finds a way back into the championship game, Michigan State will be favored to take the BCS berth that evaded them a year ago.

Fiesta Bowl: (6) Oklahoma vs. (5) Boise State

Big 12 No. 1 vs. BCS At Large

The Sugar Bowl will get the first replacement pick and will grab the second SEC school, which leaves the Fiesta with the next two picks and no SEC teams to choose from. The Fiesta Bowl will set up a rematch of the memorable Boise State program-defining victory over the Sooners a few years ago.

Even with a loss to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma will be a desirable choice for the Fiesta Bowl, which loves the Sooners.

Sugar Bowl: (3) Alabama vs. (7) Oregon

SEC No. 1 vs. BCS At Large

Alabama could still return to the BCS Championship Game, but the Crimson Tide will need help from Stanford and Oklahoma State to get there (as well as no backlash from anti-rematch voters). They will not receive enough help and will be the easy first choice for the Sugar Bowl to replace LSU.

The ACC and Big East champions will remain on the table, but the Sugar Bowl will take advantage of the early picking order to take the last at-large spot with Oregon. The Ducks will receive another chance to defeat the SEC, just like the Buckeyes did a season ago. Will the Ducks finally break through?

Orange Bowl: (10) Virginia Tech vs. (23) Cincinnati

ACC No. 1 vs. BCS At Large

Although Virginia Tech did not defeat Clemson earlier this season, the Hokies will receive another chance in the conference championship, which Frank Beamer has dominated this decade.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati has an effective two-game lead in the Big East after the win at Pittsburgh. With a win against West Virginia this weekend, Cincinnati will be all but assured of a third BCS game in four seasons, a remarkable achievement for the Bearcats.

BCS Championship: (1) LSU vs. (2) Oklahoma State

BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2

Likely 99 percent of college football fans saw LSU win over Alabama, but perhaps the more exciting Saturday showdown was Oklahoma State surviving a 52-45 shootout against Kansas State. Now LSU and Oklahoma State share a huge lead on everyone else in the championship chase.

Each has a favorable schedule the remainder of the way, although LSU must still play Arkansas and OSU must survive Bedlam. However, both will be favored and so they are projected to meet in New Orleans in January.