Missouri vs. Baylor: Spread Info, Line, BCS Impact and Predictions

Two of the most exciting offenses get together in Waco this weekend when the Missouri Tigers take on the Baylor Bears. It will be a high-scoring affair that comes down to who can get stops.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired, and the unit that comes up with the turnover in a key moment will be sitting pretty when the clock hits double zeros.

Here is everything you need to know for this Big 12 affair.

Where: Floyd Casey Stadium, Waco, Texas

When: Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET 

Spread:

Missouri (4-4) @ Baylor (4-3) -2.5

(Spread courtesy of Covers.com)

In a matchup of two teams that score points in bunches, it’s interesting that the line is so low. Missouri is the better team on paper and has played the harder schedule, but it doesn’t have the quarterback play of Baylor and is on the road.

The big question is if the Bears can contain the deadly two-man running game of RB Henry Josey and QB James Franklin. It will be the deciding factor in whether or not the Tigers can pull off the minor upset.

Key Trends:

Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.

Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.

Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games.

Over/Under:

The Missouri offense is averaging over 34 points a game (30th in the nation), but they have been wildly inconsistent. One week they score 52 on Iowa State, the next they put up 17 against Kansas State.

The two-headed rushing attack sets up Franklin for the play action, and you can bet it’s going to happen quite often on Saturday.

Yet, it’s extremely difficult to take the over when both teams would be expected to score in the high 30s. Too many things could go wrong.

Key Trends:

Over is 7-1 in BAY last eight home games.

Over is 12-3-1 in BAY last 16 games overall.

Key Missouri Injuries:

Jerrell Jackson, WR: Questionable (undisclosed)

Grant Ressel, PK: Doubtful (hip)

Key Baylor Injuries:

Tyler Stephenson, CB: Questionable (ankle)

Tuwani Copeland, CB: Out indefinitely (knee)

BCS Bowl/Top 25 Implications:

Missouri may have been ranked earlier in the season, but a 2-3-conference record has the Tigers just fighting for a bowl game at this point. A win at Baylor won’t vault them to the Top 25, but it may be the difference between an invite to the Alamo Bowl and the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.

Baylor was off to such a promising start after upsetting TCU to begin the year. Big 12 play has brought them back to earth, and at 1-3 in conference, Baylor has no shot of winning the conference.

A win gets them one step closer to bowl eligibility.

Keys to Tiger Win:

Franklin needs to find the right amount of balance. He tucks the ball and runs almost a third of the time he drops back. Against a horrific Bears defense that can be beat in any way imaginable, he needs to stay disciplined in the pocket and allow his receivers a chance to find the gaping holes in the soft defense. That will set up the run to control the clock.

Keys to Bears Win:

It’s all about Robert Griffin III.

After getting shutdown by No. 3 Oklahoma State last week, Griffin III should be poised to pad his already gaudy stats (2375 yards, 23 TDs 4 INTs).

If the Bears can grab a couple of quick scores early while getting the crowd involved, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on the Missouri defense to get stops. Considering the Tigers are 1-3 on the road, it’s certainly in the realm of possibilities on Saturday.

Prediction:

In a game that features two of the most explosive offenses in the country, the better defense will prevail.

Missouri has the edge in almost every position but quarterback, and I expect the offense to control the time of possession with their running game as they suck the energy out of the Baylor faithful early. I’m going with the battled-tested crew that gives up 12 points less per game than their opponent.

Missouri 38 Baylor 31