Complete College Basketball Preview Part 3: The Big Ten

Moving on now to our third conference, it is time to preview what the Big Ten has to offer this season.

The clear front-runners of the group are the Ohio State Buckeyes who will look to be national championship contenders once again. Joining them amongst the top teams include Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan and Indiana. 

How many NCAA tournament teams can this conference produce this season? With three of my Final Four already selected, will the fourth team come out of the Big Ten?

Let's look inside the conference and find out. 

12. Penn State

Finally, in his eighth season as Penn State head coach, Ed DeChellis was able to lead the Nittany Lions to the NCAA tournament. 

But with DeChellis gone, along with all-time leading scorer Taylor Battle and three other key seniors, Penn State will have to start from scratch once again under new head man Patrick Chambers.

The Nittany Lions lose almost all of their productivity from last season. Their top returning player is junior guard Tim Frazier who averaged just over six points per game last year.

In order for Penn State to remain competitive they will need higher productivity out of players like Frazier as well as Jermaine Marshall, Bill Oliver and Cammeron Woodyard. 

After reaching their peak with Battle, the cupboard is close to being bare for Penn State, and they will almost certainly be a bottom feeder in the Big 10 this season.

Postseason Prediction: None

11. Nebraska

Nebraska and head coach Doc Sadler will welcome a change as they move on from the Big 12 into the Big Ten.

Although the move to switch conferences was done mostly for the football program, Nebraska basketball could also benefit in the future by not having to play teams such as Kansas and Texas anymore. 

While the future may hold positive things for Nebraska basketball, the present looks somewhat bleak. After finishing with a surprising 19 wins last season, Nebraska loses its leading scorer, Lance Jeter, from last season and will now rely on a group of former role players.

Jorge Brian Diaz is the team's top returning scorer and at 6-11 he will anchor the middle for the Cornhuskers. In fact, Nebraska has five players on their roster that are at least 6-10 so size will not be an issue for this squad. 

The backcourt, however, is not so deep and relies heavily on returners Caleb Walker, Toney McCray and Brandon Richardson to get the job done. 

Nebraska is in no way inadequate and they could upset some teams in the conference if they can hold them to under 40 percent shooting like the did last year, but in a deep conference such as the Big Ten, Nebraska will be on the outside looking in of the postseason picture. 

Postseason Prediction: None

10. Iowa

Head coach Fran McCaffery is used to going through difficult times before he turns programs around.

Since I live in the Albany, New York area, I watched firsthand McCaffery take a Siena team who had very little talent and turn then into a squad in just a few short years that made three straight NCAA tournament appearances and won two games in the Big Dance. 

In McCaffery's first season with the Saints, the team was not talented and wins were hard to come by, but it was the attitude of the program that changed which led them in time to become dominant. The situation in Iowa looks very similar.

Although the Hawkeyes went just 4-14 in Big Ten play last year, McCaffery instead looked to change the culture and turn the program into one that could win under him in the future. 

While I have no doubt this will happen soon, Iowa may need to go through at least one more season of hardships before they are able to turn it around. 

Iowa does return most of their talent from last year. Matt Gatens will be the team's top offensive threat, Melshan Basabe had a breakout season last year and should continue his success this season, and Bryce Cartwright led the league in assists last year. But it is important to remember these were the same players on last year's squad who managed just 11 wins as a group. 

There is a lot to like about McCaferry and Iowa to improve, but how much can they improve is the question. While Iowa will be better, I don't expect them to finish above .500. 

Postseason Prediction: None

9. Illinois

For Illinois' Bruce Weber, his graduating class of 2011 never quite lived up to expectations. Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Bill Cole and Mike Tisdale were four of Illinois' top players the last few seasons but it never accumulated in a deep NCAA tournament run like Illini fans were hoping for from the group.

Now with those four gone, as well as Jerome Richmond who left town to go pro, Illinois will be forced to rebuild. The rebuilding effort this year will be heavily placed upon returners Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson who will be the team's go-tos on offense. 

Also needed to make an impact is Weber's influx of newcomers led by signees Nnanna Egwu, Tracy Abrams and Mike Shaw. If Illinois can get high production out of their freshmen, they could challenge for an NCAA bid.

However what seems more likely is for this team to take a step back this year and find their footing before gelling as a group in the future.

Postseason Prediction: Secondary Tournament 

8. Minnesota

Tubby Smith is likely still trying to figure out what happened to his Golden Gophers last season.

After surging out of the gates, Minnesota completely fell apart in conference play and ended up missing the postseason altogether despite being ranked in the Top 25 for the majority of the season.

This year Minnesota will look to rebound, both figuratively and literally. The Golden Gophers had nearly a plus-six rebounding edge over their opponents last season, this in large part due to their frontcourt combo of Trevor Mbakwe and Ralph Sampson III. 

Mbakwe is a pro prospect who dominates in the low post, and Sampson is fourth in the school's history in blocked shots. They will be looked at to produce even more on offense as Minnesota's backcourt is suspect to say the least.

Transfer Julian Welch could be the answer, but joining him are Austin Hollis and Chip Armelin, who were inconsistent last season. 

While Minnesota has great inside presence, their guard play will stop them from giving Tubby Smith another NCAA tournament appearance. 

Postseason Prediction: Secondary Tournament 

7. Northwestern

And now our third installment of NCAA basketball quick quiz: What is the only major conference school to never make the NCAA tournament? Well, the answer to that is of course the Northwestern Wildcats. However, this could finally be the year they end the drought.

Led by the play of returning star John Shurna, Bill Carmody's team will be more tournament-ready than maybe ever before. Shurna is an outstanding perimeter talent who averaged over 16 points a game last season. Joining him will be Drew Crawford, the 6'5 junior who averaged 12 points and nearly five rebounds, and 6'11 center Luka Mirkovic who is an inside-outside threat. 

Also expected to contribute is freshman Trey Demps (son of New Orleans Hornet general manager Dell Demps), Davide Curletti and JerShon Cobb.

A trip to the NCAA tournament won't come easy in the Big Ten for the Wildcats, but if they can pull it off, it would be a momentous occasion in the school's athletic history. 

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Tournament First Four 

6. Michigan State

Another team who failed to meet expectations a year ago was the Michigan State Spartans, who went from being preseason No. 2 in America to having to scratch and claw their way to ensure a spot in the NCAA tournament. 

Now, after losing stars Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers, Sparty will have to rely on others if they are going to get back to their national prominence this year.

The team's best returning player is Draymond Green who will finally take over as the leader this year. Green averaged 12.6 points per game last year, and will need to improve that number as the team's No. 1 scoring option.

Right behind him though will be star freshman Branden Dawson, the prized recruit of the latest Tom Izzo class at Michigan State. Dawson, a McDonald's All-American was rated as the 23rd-best prospect in the country for 2011 and could be Michigan State's next big star if he sticks around.

Michigan State will also need more consistent play from players such as Keith Appling, and Derrick Nix. 

Michigan State won't crack the Top 10 this season, but with Tom Izzo's coaching abilities it's never a smart idea to take Michigan State lightly.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Tournament Second Round

5. Purdue

For Purdue fans, they can only think of what might have been from last season. 

While the Boilermakers had a good season, going 24-8 in regular-season play and earning themselves a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, they were ejected by VCU in the third round and subsequently lost two of their best players ever in JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore. The "what if" comes in the sense that this team might have been a Final Four team if it had not lost its third member of its own "big three," Robbie Hummel, before the season even began.

Hummel went down with a season-ending knee injury on the first day of practice, but will be back for one last season at Purdue. Unfortunately for Hummel and head coach Matt Painter, this year's Boilermaker squad will not match the talent of last year's team.

Still though, with Hummel back, Purdue will have a chance to earn its fair share of success. Hummel's No. 2 man will be point guard Lewis Jackson, who has an explosive first step and is a great defender. Ryne Smith also showed great flashes last season and will get many more shot attempts with Moore and Johnson gone. 

Purdue may not be a national title contender, but Hummel will carry this team on his back and will not allow them to go down easy in his final season. 

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Tournament Third Round 

4. Wisconsin

Bo Ryan and Wisconsin are all about consistency. 

Year after year, the Badgers find themselves one way or another in the NCAA tournament with a high seed and usually winning a game or two before bowing out. 

This year, I expect the script to be very similar. The Badgers return Jordan Taylor, who will be one of the league's best players this season. Taylor averaged over 18 points per game last year and is also the team's leading returner in assists and rebounds from last season. Wisconsin will likely go as he does and he has all the talent to lead them into a deep run in the NCAA tournament.

Along with Taylor, Wisconsin returns Josh Gasser who started 30 games last season, and Mike Bruesewitz who started 13. But after that, Wisconsin looks a little bare. Players such as Jarred Berggern, Ryan Evans and Rob Wilson played sparingly last year and will have bigger roles to play this season. Only time will tell which among them will step up. 

Wisconsin will be helped by an incoming recruiting class which includes their top prospect Jarrod Uthoff. Uthoff was Iowa's Mr. Basketball and averaged over 26 points per game in high school.

Wisconsin will once again be near the top of the league this year but they are missing that one piece that could put them over the top.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Tournament Third Round

3. Indiana

Some may be very surprised to see the Hoosiers this high up on the list, but when you really look at their roster, Tom Crean's squad can realistically challenge for the Big Ten title this season. 

Finally, after three years of rebuilding, Crean has a team he can be proud of. Indiana returns over 90 percent of their scoring from last season and brings in a Top 15 recruiting class to help it along.

Christian Watford is the team's top returning scorer and was 10th in the Big Ten last year in that category at 16 points per game. Watford will be joined by Verdell Jones III, a senior who will bring much-needed veteran leadership to this squad and along with last season's average of over 12 points per game.  

Jordan Hulls will also play a key role; Hulls started every game for the Hoosiers last season and shot over 41 percent from beyond the arc. 

But the biggest key for Indiana this season will not be a returning player. The 6'11 freshman Cody Zeller (younger brother of UNC's Tyler) was rated the No. 14 prospect in the country and has all the talent to be Indiana's next big superstar. Zeller could be one the nation's best freshmen and will provide a much-needed interior presence the Hoosiers were lacking last season.

Joining Zeller in Tom Crean's 2011 class include forward Austin Etherington and guard Remy Abell, who both will have the opportunity to contribute this season.

Maybe I am overhyping this team, but I am sold on what the Hoosiers have this year. I see this team really challenging for a Big 10 title, and making the state of Indiana once again proud of its basketball.

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

2. Michigan

A funny thing happened last season in Ann Arbor. The Michigan Wolverines won an NCAA tournament game for the second time in John Beilein's reign as head coach.

The 30-point shellacking of Tennessee, not to mention taking top-seeded Duke to the final buzzer, could not have come as more of a surprise from a team that was picked 11th in the preseason in the Big Ten last season. 

Now the Wolverines will not have the luxury of being a team that can sneak up on anyone, but they have all of the talent needed for it not to matter. 

While Michigan was certainly dealt a blow when their star point guard Darius Morris decided to turn pro, they hope their guard-heavy roster will be able to make up for his superior play.

Leading the way instead will be Tim Hardaway Jr., who broke out onto the scene last year by averaging nearly 14 points per game and being the Wolverines' go-to shot-maker. Jordan Morgan also showed flashes of brilliance last year in the paint and made Wolverine fans forget about DeShwan Sims much more quickly than they had expected. Evan Smotrycz broke came on strong  ate last season as a deadly three-point specialist, and at 6'9" he provides huge matchup problems for his defender. 

The backbone of this squad however is the guard tandem of Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, who seem like they have been around forever in Wolverine uniforms. The two seniors have been through the ringer and know when they need to step up and hit big three-pointers to keep Michigan in a game, or to put a team away.

Also expected to help out are two top-100 recruits brought in by John Belein in Trey Burke and Carlton Bundridge. If they develop into top-notch players, they could form a lethal trio with Mitch McGary, the nation's No. 2 overall prospect who just recently committed to Michigan for the 2012-2013 season.

For this year, Michigan will likely challenge for a Big Ten championship and implement themselves once again as a top basketball program in this conference. 

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

1. Ohio State

The nation's No. 3 team in the preseason will be once again head and shoulders above what the rest of the Big Ten has to offer this season. 

After a disappointing loss to Kentucky in the Sweet 16, last season's likely No. 1 overall pick Jared Sullinger announced he would be returning to the Buckeyes for another season. This likely made the loss to the Wildcats a little easier to swallow for OSU fans, as now they have another opportunity this season to make a run at a national title.

Sullinger, the nation's National Freshman of the Year last season, will be a top-five pick in whatever draft he decides to declare himself eligible for, and there are very few college defenders who can hold a candle to him when he gets the ball in the post.

Along with Sullinger, William Buford opted to return to Ohio State this season after testing the NBA draft out. Buford averaged over 14 points a game last season but had to compete for shots with players such as Jon Diebler and David Lighty. Now though, Buford will be the primary No. 2 option and is capable of scoring in the 20s on any given night. 

Aaron Craft will get the start at point guard and is one of the league's best on-ball defenders, and Deshaun Thomas put up nearly eight points a game with just 14 minutes of playing time per game, rounding out the Buckeyes' best returning players. 

Ohio State brings in a top-notch group of newcomers led by four top-100 recruits. Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross will all look to make a name for themselves on this already-loaded roster.

No other team can match up with Ohio State this season in the Big Ten and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament seems extremely possible, if not likely. The question is does Ohio State have enough to earn that national title? I can't quite pull the trigger with teams such as Kentucky, North Carolina, Connecticut and Syracuse lurking, but seeing Ohio State cut down the nets would certainly not be a surprise. 

Postseason Prediction: NCAA Tournament Elite 8