Colorado Rockies: Fixing the Offense This Offseason

How to Rebuild the Offense:

Since we are in the offseason, I will play GM for the Rockies and look at one of the Rockies most glaring problems:

Losing one-run games!

The goal is to get more player's on base and drive them in. Looking at this approach, it would seem two of the most vital statistics would be a players batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP) and on base percentage (OBP). I would sacrifice power to accumulate players with high numbers in this category.

I use on base percentage instead of batting average because it does not matter how you get on base either by a hit or by walking as long as you get on base.

When I look at our current roster, I immediately see problems in regard to these statistics. I would like to see a player be around .350 for his OBP and RISP somewhere above .280. Let me examine a few positions.

Current Roster Sample:

Ty Wiggington – OBP of .315 and his RISP is .163. Ty’s glaring problem is his horrible average with RISP. If you cannot drive runners in, it is a never ending rally killer.

Mark Ellis – OBP of .288 and his RISP is .184. Both of Mark’s numbers are terrible for what is needed. He is a very good defensive player but at $6 million a year, the numbers do not add up.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – OBP of .284 and RISP is .246. Again, both of Kevin’s number are not where they need to be, like Ellis he is good defensively but these numbers are too weak.

Seth Smith – OBP of .347 and RISP is .230. Seth’s OBP is close enough, but his RISP is too low especially for a middle of the lineup type of player. He is very average defensively and is up for his first arbitration salary increase next season.

Carlos Gonzalez – OBP of .363 and RISP is .339. These are the kind of number’s that you look for.  Especially his RISP is off the charts.

Troy Tulowitzki – OBP of .372 and RISP is .305. Like Carlos, his numbers are great.

Dexter Fowler – OBP of .363 and RISP is .304. I was surprised when I ran Dexter’s numbers as his numbers are running close to Tulowitzki’s. Remember, he  did not start hitting until the after the all-star break so this is pretty impressive.

Immediately looking at the above list, you can see the issues at second base, third base and to a lesser degree left field with Wiggington, Ellis, Kouzmanoff and Smith all failing to meet the criteria.

The goal is to find players that get on base and can also drive in runners once they are on. I have to believe simple stats like these can turn a number of losses into wins.

Here are some players that have been discussed in the media as possibly being involved in trades. Let’s take a look at their stats and if they are worth a look.

Possible Additions:

David Wright – Salary $16 million. His OBP is .345 and the RISP is .255. He does tend to walk a lot with RISP. His OBP is decent but his average with RISP is way low. For a player costing this much, and what the team would need to give up to get him, I would pass.

Chase Headly – Salary $2.45 million. His OBP is .374 and the RISP is .288 plus his OBP with RISP is .412. He play’s third base and in the past has also played some left field. Also in 2011, he hit .400 when playing at Coors field. This is the guy I want. Question is, what will it take to get him? He is up for arbitration this year so his salary will go up….maybe the Padres don’t want to take on the additional cost and a deal can be made.

Michael Cuddyer – Salary was $10.5 million in 2011. His OBP is .346 and the RISP is only .247. Honestly, it does not seem like much of a difference from Seth Smith. He can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield so he is versatile. I am on the fence with this one.

Brandon Phillips – Salary $12 million. Gold Glove and All Star at second base with an OBP of .353 and a RISP of .311. This would be an excellent pickup at second base as the Reds hold a club option for 2012 but they have not discussed an extension.  Would the Reds entertain a Street for Phillips offer plus Seth Smith? By trading in Street’s salary, this would effectively bring the cost down to $5 million and provide a solid player at second base. This would be a very good move. The Rockies would then need to sign Phillips to an extension. It might take more than Street and Smith to convince the Red's to make a move but it should be explored.

Final Analysis:

My feeling is if the Rockies picked up Chase Headly and Brandon Phillips and eliminated Ty Wiggington, Mark Ellis, and Kevin Kouzmanoff from the second and third base positions this would add a lot of punch to the lineup. At the same time, this would solidify these two positions for years. I was looking through the Outfielder free agent list and did not see a player that met the OBP/RISP criteria so a trade would be needed here unless Charlie Blackmon could start in left this year. By having Pacheco as the utility infielder and occasionally catch, this would solidify the lineup.

With the players mentioned and those eliminated, this could essentially be a wash payroll wise but should immediately impact the lineup.