Pac-12 Basketball: 12 Predictions for Its First Season as a Conference

The Pac-12 is rarely named among the elite conferences in the country, and usually for justifiable reasons. However, the Pac-12 is strengthening and evolving as a conference, with the competition intensifying.

The 2011-12 Pac-12 season is set to be an exciting one. With the solid returning squads of UCLA and Cal and the tournament experience of Washington and Arizona, the Pac-12 title is up for grabs.

Here are 12 predictions for the first year of the Pac-12 under its new expansion.

1. Colorado and Utah Won’t Be as Bad as Predicted

The teams that expanded the Pac-10 into the Pac-12, Colorado and Utah, may surprise in their first year in the Pac-12. Although both teams don’t currently have the most prestigious programs, it’s too early to decipher how they will fare in the Pac-12 before seeing them on the court.

The media polls have both Colorado and Utah finishing below No. 10 in the Pac-12, and although the teams will probably not finish in the top five, it would not be a surprise to see one of them reach No. 8.

The team that is more likely to finish higher in the its first year in the Pac-12 is Colorado. Whereas Utah finished 13-18 overall last year, Colorado finished 24-14 overall with a 4-5 record against ranked teams, beating No. 5 Texas and No. 8 Missouri.

Colorado also beat Cal, which will be a team to be reckoned with in the Pac-12 this year, in the second round of the NIT Tournament last year.

The newcomers to the Pacific Conference probably won’t make too many headlines this year, but they won’t be as horrible as they have been predicted to be. 

2. Arizona Will Finish Behind UCLA and Cal

Although the preseason polls have Arizona ranked at No. 16 in the country, the high national ranking may be a residual of last year’s Wildcats team. Without the dominant Derrick Williams, Arizona’s court dynamics will be significantly altered, which will prove as a detriment in addition to the absence of Williams’ offensive production and defensive domination.

UCLA and Cal are facing the season with solid squads that have been hardly altered since last season. Although UCLA lost Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee to the NBA, they have filled that void with the Wear twins (David and Travis). Cal has four returning starters, one of which is the crafty Jorge Gutierrez, who will lead his team to many victories this season.

Arizona will still put a good team on the court and will have some very close matchups against the top Pac-12 teams this year; however, it probably won’t finish ahead of UCLA and Cal. 

3. Stanford Will Feel Green’s Absence

Without guard Jeremy Green, who averaged 16.7 points per game for the Cardinal as a senior last year, Stanford will be faced with a dilemma at the guard position. Stanford will probably alter its offensive strategy to be run through senior center Josh Owens, who trailed Green in scoring with 11.6 points per game.

Although Stanford will be hurt by the Green’s absence, it will still fare relatively well in the Pac-12. The Cardinal probably won’t have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, but should finish in the top half of the Pac-12.

4. USC Will Be Fine Without Vucevic

Although Nikola Vucevic led the team substantially in both points (17.1 per game) and rebounds (10.3 per game), the Trojans will survive without him. They will probably concentrate their offense upon their two guards Jio Fontan and Maurice Jones, who trailed Vucevic in scoring with 10.5 and 9.9 points per game respectively.

The Trojans are a little thin on experience for their forwards but will find a way to establish their presence in the paint. That make take a little while, but the offense should be able to run well under Fontan and Jones. 

5. Washington Will Still Be a Threat

Losing Isaiah Thomas, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Justin Holiday won’t defeat the Huskies. Although the departed trio accounted for a collective 42.6 points per game last season, Washington will still be a big threat in the Pac-12 on the back of C.J. Wilcox.

The Huskies’ four freshman forwards will be called upon to help Darnell Gant and Aziz N’Diaye fill the void of Bryan-Amaning. Washington definitely has some rebuilding to do after losing three starters, but it should be able to manage.

If they are able to pull through, the Huskies will be one of the most dangerous teams in the Pac-12 and a significant threat to top teams like Arizona, UCLA and Cal.

6. State Teams Won’t Impress

The Pac-12’s three state teams—Washington State, Oregon State and Arizona State—won’t turn heads this season. All three don’t have very impressive lineups and will finish in the lower half of the conference.

Of all three state teams, Oregon State should finish the highest in the Pac-12 at the No. 7 or 8 slot. Washington State and Arizona State should finish in the bottom of the conference with Colorado and Utah. 

7. Oregon Will Establish Itself

It’s been a little while since Oregon has been a team to talk about in the Pacific-12 Conference. This year, don’t doubt the Ducks. With E.J. Singler leading the team, Oregon has the opportunity to establish itself as a serious contender in the Pac-12.

While the Ducks probably won’t be in the running for a Pac-12 title this year, they should be able to finish in the top half of the conference, battling with Stanford and USC for a No. 5 or 6 slot. 

8. Cal Will Fight for the Pac-12 Title

With the Golden Bears’ top three scorers returning, Cal will be a legitimate contender for the Pac-12 title. Its matchups against UCLA should be intense matches that should come down to a few points and determine who will take the Pac-12 title.

With Jorge Gutierrez, who led the Golden Bears last year with 14.6 points per game, spearheading the offense, Cal should have of one of the best offenses in the Pac-12. From a preseason view, it is uncertain how Cal will size up against UCLA, who is favored to win the Pac-12 in the media polls.

Regardless, one thing is certain: Cal will be a contender for the Pac-12 title with its active offense. 

9. UCLA Will Win the Pac-12

With returning players Reeves Nelson and Josh Smith guiding the offense, UCLA will have the most dominant frontcourt in the Pac-12. The addition of twins David and Travis Wear will make the Bruins deep, which will make them almost unstoppable down low.

If Smith is able to develop himself as a more mature and savvy player, he has a chance to lead the Pac-12 in scoring, as he proved last year that he can be extremely dominant in the paint.

The Bruin guards aren’t the greatest, but they will get the job done with the support of their bigs. They will have some very challenging and defining matchups against Cal, Arizona and Washington, and if they are able to perform during those games, they will win the Pac-12. 

10. Four Teams Will Make the NCAA Tournament

The Pac-12 will add upon sending three teams to the NCAA Tournament last year and will send another team to the tournament this year. With the competition set to be fierce in the Pac-12, the conference should be rolling out some competitive teams for the tournament.

Three Pac-12 teams are nationally ranked in the preseason coaches polls—No. 16 Arizona, No. 20 UCLA and No. 24 Cal. Those teams will be joined by one another team (most likely Washington, Stanford or Oregon) in the NCAA Tournament.

11. Two Teams Will Make the Sweet 16

The top two Pac-12 teams will do some damage in the NCAA Tournament. From a preseason view, it appears as though those teams will be UCLA and California. UCLA only survived through one round of the tournament last year and Cal did not make it to the big dance last year; however, with solid returning squads, these teams will be able to match up against the nation’s best.

There is always a chance that Arizona or Washington could be the team out of the Pac-12 that makes the longest run in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona made it the Elite Eight last year and Washington made it to the round of 32. Both of their teams have been altered with the loss of stars Derrick Williams and Isaiah Thomas, but returning players on both teams have the experience of the tournament under their belts. 

12. Projected Standings

1. UCLA

2. California

3. Washington

4. Arizona

5. Oregon

6. Stanford

7. USC

8. Oregon State

9. Colorado

10. Arizona State

11. Washington State

12. Utah

Share your projected Pac-12 standings in the comments section below.