Statistical Rankings: Is Baltimore the Best Team in the NFL?

Welcome to a special edition of the Pigskinheaven weekly rankings.  This week we take an in-depth look at my mathematical ranking system, one of the two regular PSH ranking member’s statistical formulas.

Sascha has copyrighted his formula and it is available for only one million dollars.  As his agent, write all checks for said formula in my name.

I created this ranking formula approximately two years ago.  It has certainly spawned many conversations at Pigskin Heaven.   The basic idea behind the formula is to, as accurately as possible, measure “quality” wins versus “regular” wins and vice versa, “quality” losses (if there is such a thing) versus “regular” losses.

A statistical measurement is derived for each team called the Team Ranking Index (TRI)

Here are the variables developed and utilized in this particular formula:

1)      Strength of Opponent (SOO):  This variable is real-time; meaning the strength of the opponent at the time they are played is measured.  For example, the Colts of December versus the Colts of September are different teams.  Therefore, if a team beat the Colts in September, it would not be as impressive as beating the Colts today. 

2)      Home Field Advantage Adjustment (HFAA):  A home field adjustment is made for the home teams.  Therefore, teams that can win on the road are rewarded while teams that have trouble holding serve on their home court are penalized.

3)      Margin of Victory or Defeat (MOVD):  Competitiveness can be shown in many different ways.  Over the course of a season, we can tell a lot about a team if they are able to compete with anyone, including the better teams in the leagues.  There is a cap to the MOVD variable though.  For instance, last year when the Patriots were beating their opponents by 20 to 30 points every game in the first half of the year, the formula capped their victory margins so as not to skew the numbers unreasonably.

4)      The formula evolves during the season (EF): Recently played games factor more heavily in the team’s overall TRI, but the entire season is factored in some way.  The TRI measures the body of work for the entire season but is more concerned with how the team has played recently and whether their wins/losses have been against strong or weak opponents at the time they played them.

It's always interesting to see how the rankings evolve during the season.  Early in the year, the rankings can fluctuate fairly wildly from week to week.  However, late in the season, as it is now, movement among the teams is much smaller in nature.  Moving up or down just a few spots in a single week is a large move for a team.  So, what are the results of the formula after week 14 of the 2008 season?  The results may surprise you:

Team	Record	TRI	Streak
BALTIMORE RAVENS	(9-4)	13.4089	3W
TENNESSEE TITANS	(12-1)	12.8195	2W
NEW YORK GIANTS	(11-2)	12.3774	1L
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	(10-3)	9.2831	4W
CAROLINA PANTHERS	(10-3)	8.2516	2W
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES	(7-5-1)	6.6308	2W
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	(9-4)	6.0414	1L
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	(8-5)	5.4520	3W
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	(7-6)	4.7158	1W
NEW YORK JETS	(8-5)	4.7152	2L
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	(9-4)	4.1258	6W
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	(8-5)	3.9785	1W
ARIZONA CARDINALS	(8-5)	3.3891	1W
DALLAS COWBOYS	(8-5)	3.2417	1L
ATLANTA FALCONS	(8-5)	3.0944	1L
CHICAGO BEARS	(7-6)	2.0629	1W
MIAMI DOLPHINS	(8-5)	1.1788	2W
DENVER BRONCOS	(8-5)	0.5894	2W
HOUSTON TEXANS	(6-7)	0.0000	3W
GREEN BAY PACKERS	(5-8)	-0.4421	3L
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	(5-8)	-1.9156	1W
WASHINGTON REDSKINS	(7-6)	-3.0944	2L
BUFFALO BILLS	(6-7)	-5.0099	2L
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS	(5-8)	-5.7467	2W
CLEVELAND BROWNS	(4-9)	-7.2202	3L
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS	(4-9)	-8.3990	4L
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	(2-11)	-9.2831	6L
OAKLAND RAIDERS	(3-10)	-10.6033	2L
CINCINNATI BENGALS	(1-11-1)	-10.6092	3L
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	(2-11)	-11.3460	1L
ST. LOUIS RAMS	(2-11)	-12.6721	7L
DETROIT LIONS	(0-13)	-15.6191	13L

I’m sure you’re asking, “How in the world are the Ravens the best team in the league right now?”

Let’s take a look at the “big picture” of the Ravens season.  Since the Ravens lost three games back-to-back-to-back during late September and early October, they have been on a tear.  They have now won seven of their last eight games.  Included in those wins are the following:

Week Seven: Beat a hot Dolphin team handily in Miami.

Week Nine:  Beat a Browns team on the road that were in the process of saving their season, having won three of their previous four games, including a big win against the undefeated Giants.

Week 10: Shellacked the Texans, who are very difficult to beat in Houston, and were hot themselves, coming into the game winners in three of four.

Week 12: Absolutely crushed a strong Eagles team.

The Ravens only loss during the last two months was to the New York Giants, who were on fire at the time and that is nothing to be ashamed of.  The Ravens have had to face hot team after hot team during the year and, for the most part, they have withstood the onslaught.

Not surprisingly, the Ravens schedule isn’t easy to finish out the year, including a huge match-up this weekend against the Steelers.  Who does Vegas favor in the point spread for this game?  The Ravens, of course.  They must have access to the formula, eh?

This is an original article by Pigskin Heaven Writer, Eric Edmundson. You can read it, more of Eric’s articles and more from the Pigskin Heaven staff, here.