BCS Bowl Projections 2012: Predicting the BCS Fallout from LSU vs Alabama

In terms of the BCS Bowls, there may not be a more important game all season than LSU vs. Alabama. The clear top two teams in the country face off next week in Tuscaloosa in the “Game of the Century” and the winner will undoubtedly play in the BCS National Championship game.

What is unknown is what will happen to the loser. Will the teams have a rematch in the national championship or will a team remain undefeated and jump over the loser and take on the winner?

I keep going back and forth as to who will win this game, but in a game as close as this, picking the big play defense of LSU is the safer bet.

So, assuming Alabama loses to LSU, here is the most likely scenario for how the BCS Bowls would look like.

Orange Bowl

Even though Clemson just lost to Georgia Tech, the Tigers still have to be considered the favorites to win the ACC. They beat Virginia Tech by 20 on the road, and the Hokies will be favored in their matchup with the Yellow Jackets in two weeks.

The Orange Bowl chooses last this year and that likely means the Big East champion will drop to here. It appears to be coming down to Cincinnati and West Virginia, and considering how poorly the Mountaineers have played on the road, I’ll take the Bearcats to come out on top of the conference.

This game really is not affected by LSU-Alabama now that Clemson is out of the national championship race.

Rose Bowl

This is the only bowl where both teams playing have conference tie-ins and the Big Ten will not be sending anyone to the national championship. Stanford is currently No. 4 in the country, but I am not sold on their defense in any capacity.

They lose to Oregon, and the Ducks beat Arizona State for the Pac-12 title, thus sending them to the Rose Bowl.

In a rematch of the instant classic, Michigan State takes on Wisconsin, but the Badgers get the better of them this time on a neutral field.

If Stanford goes undefeated, they won’t have enough in the computer rankings to push them into the national championship so they would end up in this game.

Fiesta Bowl

Now things start getting interesting.

The Fiesta Bowl has a partnership with the Big 12 to take their champion who will likely be No. 3 Oklahoma State. The question is whether the Cowboys will play for the national championship.

Considering they are giving up more yards per game than 110 teams in the country, one would think that they have to lose a game either to Oklahoma or on the road at Texas Tech.

In another huge upset, the Red Raiders get the best of the Pokes in Lubbock but come back and beat in-state rival Oklahoma at home.

The bowl is then free to take any team—and after losing to Oregon, they take Stanford in what is sure to be one of the biggest shootouts in BCS history.

If Oklahoma State does go undefeated, though, they will almost assuredly make it to the national championship. In that case, the bowl would likely rematch Oklahoma and Boise State.

Sugar Bowl

The winner of LSU-Alabama will also win the SEC and play in the national championship, so the Sugar Bowl gets first pick as to who will replace them.

In a really, really close final BCS standings, Alabama gets edged out for a rematch in the national championship.

As for the Tide’s opponent, this is where things get dicey. The Sugar Bowl picks second for it’s at-large selection. If Oklahoma State and Stanford both lose as I predict, the only teams that would realistically be available are Boise State, Houston or a two-loss Oklahoma, Nebraska, Michigan or someone of the like.

Based on the name recognition and preseason hype, they take Oklahoma because...

National Championship

Boise State will play in the national championship against LSU.

Call me crazy but the Broncos are considered the fourth best team in the country by the computers and they are the only undefeated team in the country to play good defense outside of Alabama and LSU.

The Tide also don’t play anyone significant in terms of the BCS after this game. Should LSU lose to them, though, things could get even more interesting because the Tigers play No. 9 Arkansas to end the regular season.

Based on what has already happened this year, and the craziness in previous years, anything can happen at the end of this season. And, of course, the BCS formulas can make some bizarre choices, so take all of these picks with a grain of salt.

The thing to remember is that in order for a rematch of LSU-Alabama in the national championship, the game has to be really close. Until the final whistle has blown next week, let’s hold off on the calls for a rematch.