NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread

First, a bit of bookkeeping to clarify: For some reason, Sunday’s Dallas game didn’t make it onto the slideshow. I have no idea why, but I blame the return of the McRib. You’ll have to take me at my word as a fake sports bettor that I laid the points against St. Louis, as any third-grader with a bookie and a dream would have done. That leaves me at 7-5-1 for Week 7.

On the season, I’m batting .500 at 48-48-7. That’s our high-water mark for the season, enough to put the Bet Against Josh System squarely in the red.

Secondly, if you thought last week’s games were awful (and they were), you’re going to be bored to tears with this week’s slate. There’s Patriots-Steelers and...that’s it. No other game has any particular drama or significance, you know, like Ravens-Jaguars did last Monday.

We have four home ‘dogs (I bet against all of them), and a game with no line that seems both appropriate and bizarre at the same time. I’ll explain later, but just understand that these are the same picks that your grandmother could have made if she had watched any football at all this season. Of course, as I write this, I know damn well that I’ve jinxed myself into going 3-10 next week.

The Falcons, Bears, Packers, Jets, Raiders and Buccaneers all have this weekend off. Let’s see what to expect from everyone else. Home teams are listed in all caps.

New Orleans -13 over ST. LOUIS

Drew Brees is happy to help the Rams in their respective campaign for failure. Let’s not assume they don’t have any interest in Andrew Luck. With the new rookie wage scale in place, Luck would not only be a more durable option than the frail Sam Bradford, but also cheaper. I’m not saying it will happen. I’m just saying.

Steve Spagnuolo really hasn’t shown any progress with his charges; after being a game away from winning the hapless NFC West last season, the Rams have done nothing. If that team had any fans, they would be calling for Spag’s head.

TENNESSEE -9.5 over Indianapolis

This could read “Bus full of schoolchildren -3 over Indianapolis” and I’m still not taking Indianapolis. No way. Those guys are in it for the long haul. The Colts will lose every game, and not all of them will be on purpose.

Colts center Jeff Saturday managed to defend his quarterback in press coverage earlier this week. With that awesome beard he has, it’s difficult to know for sure whether he kept a straight face.

NEW YORK GIANTS -9.5 over Miami

Oh, look. Another pretty-good team taking on an awful team. I wonder how this will turn out. Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano has already put his house up for sale, and let’s get past the optimism of Sparano actually buying a house for just a second; this team is three years away from doing anything.

No team that drafts Ted Ginn in the first round has any business blaming its coach for its failures. No team that signs Reggie Bush for anything other than a pizza campaign has any business blaming its coach for its failures. And oh, by the way, they opened the season with Chad Henne starting under center. Yeah. Totally Sparano’s fault.

CAROLINA -3 over Minnesota

Finally, a game with some zest—rookie quarterbacks squaring off in NASCAR country. However, Cam Newton is actually 2-1 in games where he throws 35 passes or fewer, and the Vikings are tied for the league lead in sacks. Most of the success Carolina has enjoyed came from its running game, but Minnesota can stop that, too (they’re fourth in total run D this season).

So do we put our faith in Christian Ponder? I’m not sold. I like Carolina at home.

BALTIMORE -12.5 over Arizona

Larry Fitzgerald can only make up for so many flaws in Kevin Kolb. That’s not to suggest that Kolb’s play has been horrible—it hasn’t—but the transition has been less than ideal, and it’s a big reason why Arizona continues to leave the door open in the NFC West, where San Francisco is the new black.

Joe Flacco looked horrible in his Monday night game against the Jaguars, taking the Ravens offense well into the second half before achieving a first down. How much of that ineptitude was Jacksonville playing great defense? Put it this way: I don’t see him struggling like that for two weeks in a row.

HOUSTON -10.5 over Jacksonville

Apparently I haven’t learned my lesson from that aforementioned Monday night game. But really, Jack Del Rio had his moment in the sun...er...under the lights with that win over the Ravens.

Del Rio runs an offense so conservatively you’d almost expect it to be preceded by a flaming goalpost. That won’t fly in Houston, where Maurice Jones-Drew will probably fumble another three times before snapping an MCL on that soft Texans turf.

BUFFALO -6 over Washington

This is the last "Guy On A Buffalo" video. I hope all of you enjoy it.

Detroit over DENVER

The only line I could find on this game was on 5dimes, but it was Detroit -3.5 at -105. I suppose I could have taken that, but as I’ve said before, if the line isn’t for -110 then it isn’t the real line, and I refuse to run my fake gambling operation like some kind of circus.

I actually blame Tebow for the lack of a legitimate spread on this game. His Christ-inspired wizardry has all of Vegas paralyzed. It’s amazing! If only he could have done this before they closed down the Sahara. Man, I loved that place.

New England -2.5 over PITTSBURGH

A marquee matchup, dare I say.

Tom Brady returns to action after his Patriots took their bye last weekend. What do you think Brady does during that bye week? I just imagine him walking out of his bedroom window onto this grandiose marble balcony and staring down at elephants and giraffes just hanging out by the pool.

“Hey Tom! You’re outta peanuts!” Elephants are the worst.

SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 over Cleveland

Jim Harbaugh’s team wasn’t really that bad last year. I keep saying that, but it bears repeating. But what has surprised me is the competence of Alex Smith, who should meet Colt McCoy at midfield after this game and share whatever he has been smoking with him.

Cleveland has played some easy teams thus far, but the second half of the season sets up horribly for them, culminating with the ultimate "screw you" from the NFL "schedulesmith": playing the Ravens and Steelers twice each in the last five weeks.

Jeez, NFL. Doesn’t Cleveland have it rough enough already?

Cincinnati -3 over SEATTLE

The Bengals are playing well, which is scary. Seattle hasn’t, which puts that earlier scariness at ease.

Dallas +3.5 over PHILADELPHIA

This is really the only pick that saved me from going chalk, which would have been annoying for everyone. I usually save that move for my NCAA tournament bracket. Those things are impossible to predict, and yet everyone swears that’s the greatest way to crown a champion in a sport with some 300-plus teams. Whatever, dudes.

I’m wondering if the NFL has finally figured out Michael Vick. I think we were a little surprised when Vick got out of jail and managed to return to form, but has he leveled off? He turns the ball over like crazy every other game but still manages to produce. I like Vick coming off the bye week, but Dallas getting points here is too good to pass up.

San Diego -3.5 over KANSAS CITY

Hate you, AFC West. Philip Rivers has struggled, but should regain his footing against the Chiefs, who somehow are on a three-game winning streak. Granted, those wins came against Donovan McNabb, Curtis Painter and Kyle Boller, but consider credit given.

I just think San Diego will give them more than they can handle.