BCS Standings 2011: Mapping out Ducks' Path to the National Title

Chip Kelly's most famous words to any Oregon fan to this date are, "We'll be back".

Kelly, of course, was referencing to the BCS National Championship game after the Oregon Ducks lost to the Auburn Tigers on a last-second field goal to give the Tigers a 22-19 and the title of BCS National Champions.

Despite the loss to the Tigers, heading into the 2011 season, the Ducks kept their heads up, as they knew that they were going to be just as talented, if not more so, as they were during their campaign to the 2010-2011 BCS National Championship. Key to this were returning stars RB LaMichael James, RB Kenjon Barner, QB Darron Thomas, WR Josh Huff and CB Cliff Harris.

Though they did lose several big players on both offense and defense, for the most part, the Ducks' replacements of those players were just as talented as their predecessors, which led the Ducks to start off the season with their highest preseason ranking in school history at No. 3, with possibly the biggest opening game ever in the BCS era against No. 4 LSU.

Heading into this game, many knew that it would be a key step on to the BCS National Championship, but unfortunately, the Ducks faltered and lost to a very good LSU team (and especially defense) 41-27.

After this loss, many believed that Oregon would be out of the national title picture, but as many analysts have said before, it's always better to lose one game at the start of the season in the BCS than one during the middle or at the end of the season, and the Ducks are exemplifying this particular observation.

Oregon, since the opening-day loss to LSU, has obliterated their opponents en route to a 6-1 mark and are now ascending the BCS Rankings. They currently stand at No. 7  and are the highest-ranked one-loss team in the nation.

Though many believe the odds of the Ducks getting into the BCS National Championship Game are fairly slim, they may want to rethink themselves, as the Ducks still have a legitimate shot at reaching college football's ultimate game for the second year in a row.

Here is how the men of Oregon can do just that, staring with an analysis of the rest of their games this 2011 season.

Vs. Washington State Cougars: 10/29 3:00 p.m., Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)

Washington State Cougars 2011 Record:

3-4 (1-3 in the Pac 12)

Analysis:

 Though the Cougars have made amazing strides in the few years that Paul Wulff has been head coach in Pullman, there is still some development to be made before they can contend with the Ducks.

The Cougars currently have the 10th best passing offense in the nation and are a threat on offense against just about any defense, and a young Oregon secondary will be put to the test against the very good passing-attack the cougars will bring to Autzen Stadium.

Despite having a good passing game, the Cougars essentially need to improve on all other sides of the ball. Don't get me wrong, they have the talent in place to succeed in future years in the Pac-12, but they are just not there yet. 

Don't be surprised if the Cougars have a lead in this game, but expect the Ducks to come back and have their offense wear down the Cougars en route to a blowout.

For the Ducks and their road back to the BCS National Championship, this game is a MUST WIN.

at Washington Huskies: 11/5 TBA, Husky Stadium (Seattle, Wash.)

Washington Huskies 2011 Record:

5-2 (3-1 in the Pac 12)

Analysis:

 The Oregon Ducks-Washington Huskies rivalry is one of the best kept secrets in college football that is waiting for its own moment on national television to develop into a national affair.

Dominated by the Ducks the past seven contests, Oregon will be tested as they go on the road to Husky Stadium on Nov. 5 in what is sure to be a classic in this northwest rivalry. 

The Washington Huskies are one of the most dangerous teams in the Pac-12 and have become relevant once again under Steve Sarkisian and the winning mentality that he has brought back to Seattle. Quarterback Keith Price has replaced Jake Locker and then some, and running-back Chris Polk is one of the better backs in the nation.

It is also important to note that the Huskies only two losses have come to opponents ranked in the top-15 (Stanford and Nebraska), and that both of these games were lost on the road to offenses that could really fly.

While the Ducks will be tested in what is no doubt to be a raucous Husky Stadium, the Husky defense has some questions that will undoubtedly lead the Duck offense to exploit their weaknesses in a close contest that will see various lead changes. 

For the Ducks and their road back to the BCS National Championship, this game is a must win.

at Stanford Cardinal: 11/12 TBA, Stanford Stadium (Stanford, Calif.)

Stanford Cardinal 2011 Record:

7-0 (5-0 in the Pac 12)

Analysis:

 Two years ago, the Ducks headed to Palo Alto, Calif., flying high off of a big win over USC and their eyes back on the national title race after an opening day loss to Boise State. Though they did try to muster up a valiant second-half comeback, the Ducks ended up falling to the Stanford Cardinal 51-42 and were thus erased from the national championship picture, although they did make an appearance in the Rose Bowl. 

Back to the present day, Oregon is once again heading to Stanford having only one-loss during the 2011 season and once again are back in the national title picture, hoping that this time, they can make amends for two years ago and take care of the Cardinal in one of the biggest Pac-12 games in recent history.

Led by Heisman front-runner Andrew Luck, the Cardinal have been cruising through their schedule to the tune of a 7-0 record and have their own eyes geared towards a national championship appearance. 

Stanford also boasts a top defense that will surely test the Ducks, but once again, the Duck offense will prove too much for a Stanford team that will become exhausted just like they did in 2010 at Autzen Stadium.

This will be one of the closest and most exciting games of the 2011 season and is a must-see for every college football fan.

For the Ducks and their road back to the BCS National Championship, this game is a must win.

Vs. USC Trojans: 11/19 8:00 p.m. ET ABC, Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)

USC Trojans 2011 Record:

6-1 (3-1 in the Pac 12)

Still being out of the BCS picture due to NCAA sanctions, the USC Trojans are sitting in the dark with an impressive 6-1 record and are ranked 20th in the AP Poll (the only poll they can be considered in).

Though they did have a uncharacteristically slow start to the season, the Trojans have come roaring back behind the impressive arm of QB Matt Barkley, who was named to be one of the 16 semifinalists for the Davey O'Brien Award, which is given out to the top quarterback in the nation at the end of the college football season.

The Ducks have disposed of the Trojans the past two seasons and will be looking to do so for a third straight year as they take on USC at home in Autzen Stadium.

Barkley and the Trojan passing-attack will present a problem for the Ducks secondary, but a lack of rushing identity may come to hurt the Trojans, especially on the road at Autzen Stadium, where the Ducks are virtually unbeatable.

For the Ducks and their road back to the BCS National Championship, this game is a must win.

Vs. Oregon State Beavers: 11/26 TBA, Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)

Oregon State Beavers 2011 Record:

2-5 (2-2 in the Pac 12)

Analysis: 

It should not surprise anybody that Oregon State is once again playing better football as the second half of the season progresses. 

Starting off with an 0-4 record that included a loss to Sacramento State, Oregon State has been improving every game and is always a threat to challenge the Ducks in an always passionate Civil War Game that will culminate both teams' regular seasons on Nov. 26.

Though the Beavers may be improving each game, they are far too young to hang with the Ducks, especially on the road in Autzen Stadium, which will be hoping to stay undefeated for the third year in a row.

For the Ducks and their road back to the BCS National Championship, this game is a must win.

Other Factor: Win Remaining Games

If it wasn't clear enough by the other slides, the Ducks must win the rest of their games in the 2011 season since they already lost their opening-game to a very good LSU Tiger team.

This would also include a win in the first-ever Pac-12 Championship game, which would most likely be held at a raucous Autzen Stadium.

If the Ducks were able to do this, their record would stand at an impressive 12-1, the same exact record they finished with at the end of the 2010-2011 season (including the loss to Auburn in the National Championship).

The remaining games on the Ducks schedule are:

vs. Washington State: 10/29 (Autzen Stadium: Eugene, Ore.)

at Washington: 11/5 (Husky Stadium: Seattle, Wash.)

at No. 6 Stanford: 11/12 (Stanford Stadium: Palo Alto, Calif.)

vs. USC: 11/19 (Autzen Stadium: Eugene, Ore.)

vs. Oregon State: 11/26 (Autzen Stadium: Eugene, Ore.)

Pacific-12 Championship Game (should the Ducks win the Pac-12 North):

vs. TBA - 12/2 (Autzen Stadium: Eugene, Ore.)

*I listed Autzen Stadium as the host stadium because the Ducks would have the better record of anybody in the South Division

Though this may seem like a small part of the equation for the Ducks to reach the National Championship game, it may be the most important because if the Ducks do lose one of these games, their championship dreams are essentially lost, and it would almost be impossible for them (barring a cataclysmic meltdown in the standings) to reach the Championship, yet alone win the Pac-12. 

Other Factor: Stanford Can Only Lose to Oregon

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the most impressive teams led by one of the most impressive quarterbacks in the nation, Andrew Luck.

With Andrew Luck leading the attack and establishing a fairly stout defense, the Cardinal have established a 7-0 record and currently sit at No. 6 in the BCS polls, leading to a huge game against the Ducks on Nov. 12 at Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California.

Though it is essential for the Ducks to win this game to keep their BCS hopes alive, they also have to hope that Stanford's only loss during the 2011 season is to the Ducks in order to boost their scores in all three polls that play a part in determining the BCS poll (Coaches, Harris Interactive, Computers).

If Stanford is able to beat USC (which they probably can do), then they should be able to win all but the Oregon game, thus heightening the Ducks' ranking and perception in the polls that comprise the BCS.

Other Factor: Darron Thomas and LaMichael James Must Return in Prime Form

Key to the Ducks' success these past two season have been RB LaMichael James and QB Darron Thomas collaborating together to lead one of the most dangerous offenses down-the-field en route to touchdown after touchdown.

Though they do have stable backups (as seen in a 45-2 blowout victory over the Colorado Buffaloes), Darron Thomas and LaMichael James must return from their injuries in better for than ever, and they must also be able to continue to lead the offensive attack that many people around the nation have become used to watching over the past year.

While the backups are more than capable of playing top-tier football, there just does not seem a way that the Ducks can win their remaining games without faltering once, especially with big games on the road at Washington on Nov. 5 and at Stanford on Nov. 12.

The return of Darron Thomas and LaMichael James in prime form (which could occur as early as the game against Washington State) would only help the Ducks' chances of making a second trip to the BCS National Championship Game.

Other Factor: Clemson, Boise State, Oklahoma State and Alabama Must Lose

The BCS Rankings currently have the Ducks seventh behind LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Clemson and Stanford, and the Ducks will need to beat Stanford and have Alabama, Oklahoma State, Boise State and Clemson all lose, just for the specific reason that they would not have the strength of schedule nor be put ahead of another undefeated team (though it may be argued that with wins against Stanford and in the Pac-12 Championship, it may be enough to put the Ducks ahead of Boise State).

The probability of this happening is actually pretty good, as Alabama has a huge game against LSU that they could falter in, Oklahoma State has tough games against both Kansas State and Oklahoma, Clemson has big games against Georgia Tech and South Carolina and Boise State has a date with a TCU team that will be looking to play spoiler to another Boise undefeated season.

Though this may seem like a lot needed to happen for the Ducks to have a shot at the national championship (and this is partially true), this is what exactly needs to happen for the Ducks to have a shot at a repeat appearance in the national championship.

Other Factor: The LSU Situation

If things didn't seem complicated for the Ducks already, the LSU situation makes things even more complicated.

If LSU wins out, it is possible that the Ducks will need Alabama to lose more than just the game against LSU in order to reach the National Championship, but that is a situation that is also quite debatable.

If LSU does lose and it is to Alabama, the Ducks will need Alabama to lose a game after the play LSU, preferably the SEC Championship game.

If LSU loses a game and it is not to Alabama, then the Ducks will want Alabama to lose either in the regular season or in the SEC Championship game, as well as having the Tigers lose another game int he regular season.

It is important to note that all of these situations are possible and not certainties, and are also highly debatable in the college football community.

Summary

Despite having an opening-day loss to the LSU Tigers, the way the Ducks have played since then has allowed them to crawl back into the national title picture, as they now sit inside of the top 10 in the BCS Polls.

ln order for them to reach the BCS National Championship Game, the Ducks will most importantly have to win the rest of their games in convincing fashion (including the Pac-12 Championship Game), as well as have other teams ahead of them lose.

Though they are an outside shot at the national title race, the Ducks are definitely in the thick of things should the top of the rankings be scrambled any more this year.

For Duck fans, don't give up hope, but know that your eyes must be first on the game immediately ahead of you and to not look too far ahead because that is when you will fall victim to the future. 

As Chip Kelly says and preaches before every game and when analyzing the entire season, it is most important to focus on individual games instead of the big picture and... "Win the Day".