2011 College Football: Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Week 9 of the 2011 college football season will definitely be missing something when the top two teams in the BCS standings take time off before a monster battle in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Nov. 5.

Bettors still have plenty of games to wager on and underdogs hold a slim 238-232-5 against-the-spread advantage, while the "over" is 236-228 on the year.

Let's take a look at this week's action from a betting perspective.

Troy Trojans at Florida International Golden Panthers

The Florida International Golden Panthers placed the "must-win" label on last week's 34-16 loss to the Arkansas State Red Wolves as 3.5-point road underdogs, which basically eliminated them from any possibility of winning the Sun Belt Conference.

This is a dangerous situation when facing a team seeking revenge from a 52-35 loss as 8.5-point home favorites in last year's series meeting.

The Troy Trojans are 1-1 ATS as underdogs this season, but both of those contests came against Arkansas and Clemson—two teams in the top 10 in the most current BCS standings.

Despite losing both of those games, the program was only out-gained by a combined 42 yards.

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the series, and Troy has never received points in the series.

That's enough for me.

Pick:  Troy Trojans (+6.5)

Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers

The Indiana Hoosiers aren't going to draw a ton of interest at the betting windows Saturday, but the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.

Northwestern is also one of the favorites in college football, failing to cover both opportunities this year.

The Wildcats are also 1-9 ATS in October.

Professional bettors will find that the Hoosiers were outgained by just 42 yards last week in a 45-24 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes as 23-point road underdogs.

Pick:  Indiana Hoosiers (+10)

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers

A lot of people are going to play against the Michigan State Spartans after an emotional 37-31 win over the Wisconsin Badgers as seven-point home underdogs.

I believe the result of not going to overtime will help this team tremendously in traveling outside of East Lansing for the first time since Oct. 1.

Nebraska has lost the statistical battle on the ground twice this year, failing to cover both games by an average of 12.25 points.

Michigan State allowed 220 yards last week on the ground to Wisconsin, but that's excusable when facing the best offensive line in college football.

Pick:  Michigan State Spartans (+6)

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines

There's no shame in suffering your first loss of the season in East Lansing, as the Michigan Wolverines look to bounce back in Week 9.

First-year head coach Brady Hoke has already led the team to a 3-1 ATS mark as a double-digit home favorite this year, with the only miss coming by a half-point in a 31-3 win over Eastern Michigan.

The home team is also 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings—making the Wolverines the play.

Pick:  Michigan Wolverines (-13.5)

Mississippi St Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats

Both teams are still alive to make a bowl appearance with 3-4 records, but the winning side in this series has covered the last nine.

Mississippi State is clearly the better team, illustrated by the betting odds, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Gotta lay the points with a program that's 4-2 ATS as a road favorite the last two-plus seasons.

Pick:  Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10)

Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies

Without a doubt, one of the more surprising lines of the weekend, especially when Missouri tallied a 30-9 win over Texas A&M as 3.5-point road underdogs last year.

I personally watched the Tigers' 45-24 loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys as 6.5-point home underdogs, amazed at the amount of mistakes made.

The Aggies have bounced back in a big way in tallying three consecutive wins, which directly followed consecutive losses to Arkansas and Oklahoma State.

Gotta think the oddsmakers are looking to catch people playing the underdog, which has me hoping Texas A&M can improve to 6-1 ATS when laying 10.5 to 21 points.

Pick:  Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5)

Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores

Arkansas has been plagued by slow starts in its two road games this year, directly leading to an 0-2 ATS record.

Vanderbilt has played solid defense when hosting opponents this season and will put its 5-0 ATS mark in five home games on the line.

The Commodores only spread misses this year came on the road against Alabama and South Carolina, two teams that are very physical.

The Razorbacks are missing that element this year, but are still very dangerous with a potent passing attack.

Pick:  Vanderbilt Commodores (+12)

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats

From a betting perspective, Oklahoma is clearly the play based on value, coming off a 41-38 loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders as 29-point home favorites.

Bettors will jump to play a Kansas State team that tallied a 41-34 upset win over Texas Tech as 3.5-point road underdogs, but the box score suggests it lost the statistical battle by 241 yards.

The Sooners are 19-7 ATS following a straight-up loss, while the home team in this series is 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Bounce-back time in the BCS standings.

Pick:  Oklahoma Sooners (-14)

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans

The USC Trojans will not lack confidence after coming away with a 31-17 win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as 9.5-point road underdogs Saturday.

Stanford is the only unblemished team in college football against the spread, posting a 65-21 win over the Washington Huskies as 18-point home favorites.

Both teams have great statistical defenses against the run, but the Trojans have caused many of their opponents to throw due to a weak schedule and early first-half leads.

Still, I can't possibly lay this many points inside the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

The Trojans gave the Cardinal everything they could handle in a 37-35 loss last year as 10-point road underdogs.

Pick:  USC Trojans (+9.5)

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Plenty of casual bettors will likely lay everything they have on the Clemson Tigers at such a short price on the road, but I'm not going to follow.

The Tigers are starting to see their name climb higher and higher in the BCS standings, heading out on the road as a favorite for just the second time this year.

Clemson registered a 56-45 win in that particular situation as nine-point favorites over Maryland, but needed to score 39 points in the second half.

Georgia Tech isn't the easiest opponent to prepare for when your mind starts wandering off into thinking about potentially playing in the national title game.

Las Vegas doesn't like to lose money, and I think the Tigers will be the most heavily-backed team come Saturday.

Pick:  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+4.5)

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes

If you watched Wisconsin Badgers head coach Bret Bielema walk off the field Saturday—then I'm not sure how you could lay this type of number on the road.

Ohio State isn't going to scare anybody with its passing game, but it could easily be 6-1 entering this important Big Ten Conference clash.

The Buckeyes are also 5-1 ATS as underdogs the last two-plus seasons and 3-0 ATS when coming in off a week of rest.

Granted, the rest numbers were under former head coach Jim Tressel, but can't be ignored.

In a physical game, I'll take my chances on a team trying to avoid a second consecutive loss at Ohio Stadium.

Bielema's face nearly in tears is something I just can't forget.

Pick:  Ohio State Buckeyes (+8)