Duke Basketball: 12 Reasons Why the Devils Could Win It All

The dawn of a new college hoops season is upon us, and everywhere, hope springs eternal. Far and wide across this basketball loving land, college hoops fans are having and discussing their own hoops dreams of March Madnesses, Final Fours, and national championships, They are busting out the face and body paint and dusting off their foam fingers. They are in front of mirrors practicing their chants and moves to distract the enemy's troops at the charity strip. In their eyes, this is the year for their team.

What about Duke? Well, their fans are no different with, perhaps, more justification than most. But how do you think their detractors, their doubters, their "haters", and there are legions of them, are weighing in on Duke's chances of winning it all this year?

"No freakin' way." "Puke doesn't have a prayer." "They couldn't repeat even with their superstars in tow last year. How do they expect to win with only the scrubs coming back."

To them, I would tersely an curtly reply, "2009-2010".

Winning a national championship is a complex endeavor. All of the necessary ingredients have to be in place and meld together at just the right time.

It begins with a dream. Then follows tons of hard work, practice, and preparation. Drive an determination are key. An insatiable appetite for winning and success are critical, as is a loathing for losing. Good health and remaining injury free are usually crucial. A lot of wins, favorable seeding and match-ups really, really help.

Great coaching certainly makes a difference -- an average or bad coach can muck up a great team at the highest level of competition. Realistically, the bounce of the ball is a factor too -- things have to go your way. In addition to being good and playing hot, having Lady Luck and the basketball gods smiling down upon you, and only you, are not to be underrated.

Like I said, it's complicated. The stars have to align in your favor.

Duke, ranked sixth in the preseason polls, is returning five key players who have played a lot of big-time basketball. They have the second-ranked incoming class of freshmen in the land, including perhaps the best high school player in America last year. Two talented sophomores who saw lesser minutes last year are in the mix, as well. On top of all of that, they have the best coach in the world.

So despite the arguments of the naysayers to the contrary, the Blue Devils realistically have just as much favoring their winning the fifth national championship under Mike Krzyzewski as does any other top-ranked team. Probably more so.

Let's examine the attributes and factors that make pulling this off entirely within the realm of possibility for this Blue Devil squad.

Sometimes, Uprooting the Bigger Plants Is Good for the Smaller Ones

In gardening, when you plant a bunch of seedlings (for the purposes of our discussion, let's say 10 to 12) and a couple of them grow bigger and faster than the rest, the smaller plants often do not prosper because the bigger ones are using up more of the water and nutrients from the soil and are blocking and receiving most of the sunlight. What good gardeners do in this situation is they remove the larger seedlings so that the other 10 will prosper.

OK, what does this have to do with basketball? Does it blow to have two seniors who scored over 4,000 points between them in your starting lineup? Of course not. Is it a negative for the other younger players to have to play second fiddle to them? Not necessarily—perhaps it is the natural order of things. Especially not when the "bigger plants" are high quality, high character guys who happen to be named Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, and all are playing under the watchful eye of one of the great team builders this game has ever known.

With Smith and Singler departed for NBA purgatory, what remains at Duke are five returning key players from last season's team, each of whom has vast untapped potential of their own, and a group of uber-talened incoming freshman. A couple promising sophomores who saw some time last years complete the mix.  

From this perspective, the returning veterans who played alongside Singler and Smith often, whether by design or by choice, demurred to the stellar pair, settling for playing second or third chair to their senior comrades.

While most certainly they learned and benefited from playing with such great teammates, they also most, in the process, likely placed their own games on the backburner. It was clear that much of the time, and especially at crunch time, they looked to the stars to make the plays. Maybe that's the way it is supposed to be, but at the same time, maybe it stultified their own development.

It's time now for Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee and Miles Plumlee to step into the limelight. It's their time to step out of the shadows and to shine. And within that five-spot, there is a ton of talent. Time to release the hounds! 

Many people are wondering where Duke's points will come from this year. I really don't think that it is going to be a problem. Looks to be plenty of ammo in the arsenal.

And maybe, just maybe, these remaining "little plants" will grow like kudzu.

Never Underestimate the Kelly Factor

By all indications, recalling the flashes that we witnessed with increasing frequency last season and his performances in Asia this summer, Ryan Kelly needs to be taken out of the oven—he's ready.

After two years of strengthening and becoming more comfortable with his 6' 11" frame, Ryan Kelly is ready. In addition to the physical work that he's done, he has spent a great deal of time during the developmental stages of his career to this point refining and polishing his distinctive skill set.

For a big, Kelly has the total package, He can knock down the three, has a great mid-range game, has worked hard at developing stronger moves around the basket and is a very good free throw shooter. He has good handles, as well as nice skills and a knack for passing, abilities which make him very competent and comfortable out on the perimeter. He is the most flexible defender of the Duke bigs, able to hold his own down low and to keep smaller players in front him on the perimeter. He is long and has great sense of timing as a shot blocker. In sum, there is little that he is not good at.

Kelly is a matchup nightmare for opposing coaches. He is capable of taking over a game and scoring 20 points or more on any given night. If he asserts himself more on the boards on both ends, he will become a regular double-double guy. He is a player that Duke can run its man offense through from the high post. Against teams that attempt to zone the Devils, he is certain to bust up that plan from his positioning in the high post.

When rolling on ball screens, he is the most effective big because of his ability to flare for the open perimeter jumper as his defender shows to help on the driver .

The bottom line is that Kelly provides the Blue Devils with a unique weapon on both ends of the court. Look for 2011-2012 to be a breakout year for the junior from Raleigh.

The Kelly Factor could be wicked good. 

At Last, the Devils Have Made Their Point

What do you mean? You may be thinking, A) we are not even sure who the point will be, and 2) (Yogi Berra) we haven't had any problems at the point.

I am inclined to disagree with both of these contentions. Let's take two first. Duke has experienced both dearth and instability at point guard since Greg Paulus began falling apart during his senior season. We have simply been fortunate enough to have talented guards who weren't point guards that were able to move over and hold down the position.

Two years ago, Jon Scheyer, a two-guard with solid handles, had to handle the job because Nolan Smith, who wasn't a point guard either, wasn't ready to do the job, just as he wasn't the year before when Paulus faltered. Behind Jon? There was no one.

But what about last year? What about Kyrie Irving? He was the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft as a point guard, for goodness sake. Look, I loved Kyrie. And yes, he is an awesomely talented, true point guard. But Kyrie played what? Every bit of 11 games or so for Duke, and now he's gone? I'm not going to spend a lot of time, ever, talking about Kyrie.

After his injury, Nolan moved over and did an incredible job filling in, but Nolan was a scoring two guard, and beyond him, there was no one besides solid-but-not-ready-for-prime time freshman Tyler Thornton.

So the point guard spot, as the position should ideally be manned, has been neither perfect or deep for quite awhile.

So who's the point this year? That's easy—Seth Austin Tyler Quinn. At least at the beginning and, perhaps, for the duration of the season, Duke will have a point guard by committee. And that's OK, because at least there are options.

At the point, Seth is probably a quicker, smaller version of Jon Scheyer. He will do a solid job, won't beat us, will make teams going under the high post screen pay dearly and will surprise off the bounce and with the pass.

At 6 '5", Austin Rivers provides both size and mad penetration skills and is probably the most dangerous in terms of breaking down the defense and pushing the ball in transition.

Thornton and Cook possess more pure point guard skill sets. Thornton is more the scrappy floor general and hard-nosed defender type who doesn't need the ball to contribute. Cook is the quicker, more penetrating type of creator who will beak down defenses and get all of his teammates involved.

In the end, the positive for Duke at the point position this year is that they have multiple options, each of which brings different assets to the table when they are in the game. This versatility will allow Duke's "point guard staff" to play differently from game-to-game or within a single game, responding to its ebb and flow and to the strategic moves of an opponent with counter moves of their own.

This is way better than having to play one certain way all of the time and then having little to no depth to call upon when you look down the bench.

Way better.

Even in Athletics, Character Counts

I don't know Miles Plumlee personally. But having worked with young people over the course of a long career, I consider myself a fair judge of them even from a distance, simply by observing their body language and how they respond to different situations. Based upon that, and only that, I am going to go out on a limb and deem him a high character guy. I like the look in his eyes and how he comports himself on the court.

Miles isn't a great basketball talent, particularly from the standpoint of his offensive skill set. But he isn't chopped liver either, and he has made strides in that particular facet of his game. Of late, his sweeping hook with either hand is looking sweet. Physically, he is a very athletic player who runs and jumps well and who has good feet and hands.

If I am right about him, and I think that I am, and if character counts and pays off in the long run, and I think that it does, then I am confident that Miles is going to have a Brian Zoubek-type senior season. Look for him lead by example and to double-double with enough frequency that opposing teams just can't ignore him.

Miles played really well this summer and again at Countdown to Craziness. I believe that he is finally comfortable in his own skin as a player, knows who he is and what he can do, has embraced his role and is ready to make the most of it.

In winning championships, star quality and talent helps. But so does character, competitiveness, experience and senior leadership.

Maybe the Crazies will make big 'P's with their hands and chant, "Pl-u-u-u-u-u-u-m-m-m-m."

The Cream Finally Rises to the Top

At this point in his career, I imagine that Mason Plumlee envisioned his initial two seasons at Duke turning out quite differently than what they have. Highly touted as he was coming out of the prep ranks, I am quite certain that Duke fans were anticipating more.

With all the talk of whether he would stay for his sophomore season and then for his junior campaign, there has been little evidence, other than his size and athleticism, that Mason is NBA (if there ever is one again) material. He seems to have gone from a brash freshman with a dash of attitude and swagger to a junior who has grown uncomfortable and uncertain about his game.

But make no mistake. Mason Plumlee is very talented. To think otherwise means that either you aren't looking very hard or that you are perhaps a little bit basketball naive. Players mature and come into their own on an individual basis. As much as they, or their coaches,  and especially, we the fans may want them to come along and deliver immediately, it just doesn't always play out that way.

If Mason can has a big game or two early and recovers a little bit of his swagger, then watch out. He can become the force that he and we expected him to be.

It's time. Come on, big boy! Time to show your stuff! Time for the cream to rise to the top.

Too Many Weapons in the Gun Cabinet

Traditionally, Duke has had plenty of long-range weapons in its arsenal. But this group? This group is armed to the teeth.

As good as the shooters have been at Duke in the past, these guys are special. Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are jump shooters extraordinaire. Their range is in the gym. Whether from the arc (or well beyond it) or from mid-range, if they get separation and a second, they will make you pay the most of the time.

In addition, both players are vastly improved off of the dribble. Duke's upperclassman have raved about what a beast Dawkins is going to the basket in pick-up and in practice. And Curry's tear drop floater off the dribble in the lane has become almost automatic. These two guys can go 20 plus on any given night.

And then there is Austin Rivers. He is a natural born scorer. More on him later. A factor in his own right.

As already highlighted, having inside-outside guy Ryan Kelly is like having a 6'11" guard. He possesses a complete offensive toolbox.

If Mason gets his mad-on, he is capable of lighting you up as well. Ignore Miles, and next thing you know, he'll have 15 on dunks and put-backs alone.

Off the bench, though time to grow and mature is needed, Duke has daggers and derringers hidden away in every nook and cranny. Ignored and left alone, Tyler will drop the three, and if fouled, he will make his freebies. Josh Hairston can routinely hit the fifteen footer when left alone in the short corner. And the other freshmen? They all bring snacks to the party too.

In sum, the Blue Devils will be playing a lot of "pick your poison" with opposing defenses this season. 

There Is Strength in Numbers

Anyone with a pulse on this Duke Blue Planet has heard it already. "This...will be...one of...the deepest...Duke teams...ever." Yeah, yeah, we've all heard that before.

Well, on paper, at least, it really should be. Combined with five returning main cogs from last year's 32-5 team and two sophomore bench players who played varying degrees of minutes last season, the arrival of the nation's second-ranked, five-man recruiting class makes Duke's bench for the upcoming season appear really, really long.

In addition, within that stellar freshman class is arguably the nation's top-ranked prep player of 2010-2011, Austin Rivers. Anytime that you add a player of that caliber, your outlook, whatever it was before, automatically improves. The recruiting services are rarely wrong about players with his pedigree and credentials.

How deep Duke's bench actually turns out to be depends upon a number of factors: a) the kind of system and style of play K designs and employs, b) his comfort level as a coach in terms of developing the team and maximizing its chances for success, c) the individual development and progress of each player, particularly those farther down the depth chart, and d) which players gain his trust and just how much.

Dependent upon these considerations, Duke's bench could go 12 deep. Is it practical or likely that the staff will routinely utilize that many players? Probably not.

What is certain, however, is that if Duke's regular rotation does not go at least nine to 10 players deep, then there should never, ever again be any talk of what "a deep team" we will have this year. Never. Ever.

From this perspective, you either figure out how to play a lot of them and/or redshirt a few, or you bank the schollys for a rainy day.

For now, deep is the word.

With Diversity Comes Flexibility and Freedom

As is often the case with greater team depth, a greater diversity of physical and skill attributes and their possible combinations exists within the roster. That diversity provides the coaching staff with a plethora of personnel permutations. It provides them with the strategic freedom to either force the action or to counter the actions of an opponent during the short-term of a single game or over the long haul of a season.

This year's Duke roster offers Coach Krzyzewski and staff just such flexibility. At every position, three or even four personnel options exist that allow Duke to either create match-up problems or to respond to personnel or tactical moves made by opposing coaches,

The point guard position, outlined previously in some detail, is a prime example. All four options there bring a little something different to the position.

The small forward spot provides another example of the palette of options that the staff has at its disposal. Duke can choose to play a guard, such as likely starter Andre Dawkins or perhaps even Austin Rivers, at that spot and go small. Or they could use more of true three-man type, such as Alex Murphy or Michael Gbinije. Or if they like, the Blue Devils can play big there with Ryan Kelly, who possesses the requisite skill set to handle the job against certain opponents.

Krzyzewski can opt to play fast or to slow it down. He can go small or really big if he likes. He can play pressure man-to-man, or he can deploy an imposing zone defense as the situation dictates.

For the coaching staff, looking down this bench should be tantamount to looking into a great big tool ol' box and finding it full of all kinds of nifty implements, some with varying degrees of wear and others all shiny and new, with which to work. 

More BTUs Allow the Devils to Turn Up the Heat

BTUs? Heat? What the...? Here I am investing my time trying to get my fix of some Duke hoops, and this moron is ranting about British Thermal Units.

No, bro, not British Thermal Units. BTUs: Bodies To Use. Oh-h-h-h-h, now you get it.

The ninth reason why the Devils have a chance to win it all this year is that the surplus of depth, energy and fouls on the Duke's bench will allow the coaching staff to really turn up the heat on the defensive end of the court.

Two seasons ago, when Duke won the national championship, the bench was short, especially on the perimeter. As a result, Krzyzewski modified his defensive principles, adapting them to what he had to work with. That year, the Devils played a containment style of soft pressure man-to-man defense, emphasizing minimizing attacks on the basket and limiting opponents to one contested shot—preferably a perimeter shot and the worst one possible at that. It worked to perfection.

But that is not the style of team man-to-man that Coach K really believes in and prefers. Given the bodies and minds to work with, K prefers to pressure the ball further away from the basket, stretch the initiation of the offense as far from the the arc as possible, get in the passing lanes, trap penetration and entry passes into the lane and then scramble to recover and contest of the shot.

With the longer bench, the Blue Devils should be able to return to a more pressure-oriented system of defense. Hopefully, the result will be more turnovers forced, more easy scores off of defense and a faster style of play.

All of these effects should help take pressure off of a young team learning how to play together on the offensive end of the court.

Watch Out, He's 'Bout to Blow

In a given game, Austin Rivers is like a ticking time bomb, ready to go off without notice.

Coming in, Rivers has already created a lot of buzz among Duke fans. Some of it due to his abundant talent, and some due, quite frankly, to his bravado. Rivers' brash trash talk as a highly recruited prepster does not fit the mold of the mature, disciplined persona that Duke fans have become accustomed to hearing and seeing from their stars.

But Rivers wasn't at Duke at the time that he earned his reputation for braggadocio, If anyone is capable of humbling a young player with too much chutzpah, Krzyzewski is that guy. That Krzyzewsli is demanding is not a fact that was lost upon either Rivers, the Son or the Elder. Keep this in mind. Austin Rivers chose Duke knowing the high expectations and demands that he would have to shoulder. Rest assured, this is a non-issue. If not, he would be NFL (not for long) at Duke anyway, even if he weren't a likely "one and done" player.

Rivers is the kind of natural scorer that every program and every coach asks Santa Claus for each Christmas. Fortunately, Santa came to Duke last Christmas. While I am confident that Rivers will be coached up in the art of playing within a team setting, I am equally confident that K will not coach the scorer's mentality out of him. Krzyzewski is far too smart to look a proverbial gift horse in the mouth. While Rivers' game is attacking the basket, once on fire, he can score from any place at any moment.

In this instance, when you have a nuclear bomb in your arsenal, you throw concepts such as nuclear deterrent and mutually assured destruction out the window, and you blow the your enemies up with it.

Look for Rivers to seamlessly mesh into the team concept while simultaneously wreaking some major havoc and destruction upon Duke's opponents every other game or so. 

More Is Better

For quite some time, Duke's coaching staff has been arguably the best in college basketball. It is blessed with talent, youth, enthusiasm, basketball pedigree, longevity and stability.

In addition, the Duke staff has been blessed with loyalty, both to the head coach and to the university. Both Steve Wojciechowski and Chris Collins are former Duke players who played for Krzyzewski and then later returned as assistant coaches. They have both been with K for over a decade now, and both have been named associate head coaches. They are very good coaches, having learned from the best, and they are invested in the program. 

Nate James, a player on Duke's 2001 national championship team, joined the staff in 2008. Ditto all of the above for Nate.

Enough Dukie cooks in the kitchen, right? Nope.

Jeff Capel played point guard at Duke in the mid-1990s. After graduation, he moved into coaching, serving as assistant at VCU and then later becoming the head coach there. In 2006, he accepted the head coaching position at the University of Oklahoma, where he guided the Sooners to two NCAA appearances, one an Elite Eight finish, and coached Blake Griffin, the top pick in the 2009 NBA draft. He was 96-69 while at Oklahoma.

After the conclusion of the 2010-2011 season, however, following back to back losing campaigns and under the cloud of possible NCAA violations, Capel was fired. While Capel was visiting his old coach and stomping grounds in Durham shortly after his dismissal, Krzyzewski had a brainstorm. He juggled his staff assignments, and voila, in May, he announced that Capel had joined the staff.

Like the others, Capel bleeds Duke Blue. He brings head coaching experience to the table, making an already great staff all the better. Because of his experience coaching the beastly Griffin, it is anticipated that perhaps he can be instrumental in helping the Plumlees reach their full potential. 

Good is awesome. More is better. An more and gooder is, well, mo' better. Welcome home, Coach.

But Having the Best Is More Than Enough

As great as Duke's assistant coaches are, having the winningest coach in the history of college basketball sitting in the head man's chair is even better. Krzyzewski can't lay claim to that title quite yet, but that is only because the season hasn't gotten under way. Shortly after it does, he will replace his mentor and friend Bob Knight atop the coaching heap for most wins in men's college basketball.

Mike Krzyzewski is a basketball treasure. A genius. A hard court Picasso. He has won four national championships and more ACC titles than I feel like taking the time to look up and verify a number for right this moment. If anyone is capable of taking the very ample talent and potential that this Duke team possesses and shaping and molding it to optimize its chances of winning a championship, he does.

Keep this in mind as the beginning of this season approaches.  At the outset of this piece, I mentioned 2009-2010. No one, and I mean no one, thought that Duke would be winning the national championship the year before last. If they say that they did, then it is most likely that they are prevaricating.

Few believed it even when March Madness was preparing to tip-off, much less when the season tip-off tournaments were getting things underway back in November. Everyone was too busy whining about how few guards we had and projecting that the Plumlees would soon force dead wood the likes of Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek to the end of the bench.

The bottom line? This team possesses all of the requisite tools and a staff cram-packed with master craftsmen. With a little luck and perhaps the blessings of the hoops gods mixed in for good measure, together they will go out and craft a masterpiece season.