NFL Week 7 Picks: Top Point Totals Trending Towards the over

This has been the season of the over when it comes to NFL total point spreads and Vegas finally adjusted last week. In 13 Week 6 games, 10 of them went under the point spread.

Now it’s time to jump back on the over band wagon with these two bets:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (Over/Under: 42)

The Raiders weren’t an offensive juggernaut before Carson Palmer was under center. In his first game in almost nine months after three days of practice, it’s a safe bet that the Raiders won’t be lighting up the scoreboard this weekend.

The playbook is going to be extremely condensed, and if Oakland gets any sort of lead you can expect a heavy dose of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.

The Chiefs offense is 29^th in passing yards, and has only reached 23 points in one of their games. The stout Raiders D-Line that has been very stingy against the run should contain the Chiefs running game.

Hard to imagine much offense in this one.

Key Trends:

Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oakland.

Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.

Under is 6-2-1 in Raiders last nine games as a favorite.

Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last four vs. AFC West.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (Over/Under: 47.5)

The Lions didn’t have much of a running game with Jahvid Best and now that he’s out with a concussion, the Detroit offense is going to be extremely limited.

You can’t just chuck it up to Calvin Johnson on every play.

The Falcons have allowed opponents to sack, hurry or knock down Matt Ryan a ridiculous 61 times. He is getting no protection and has little time to see the play develop.

Julio Jones will likely be out yet again and Roddy White has been non-existent.

Key Trends:

Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Detroit.

Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Under is 4-1 in Lions last five home games.

Over is 6-1-1 in Falcons last eight road games.