Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tim Tebow Is No Sure Bet to Succeed

So you're thinking about adding Tim Tebow to your fantasy football team. Or maybe you've already taken that leap of faith.

Sigh.

I get it—it's the middle of the season. Maybe your quarterback's hurt, maybe he's got a bye this week or maybe you, like so many NFL fans, are just enamored with the prospect of "Tebow Time."

You could certainly do worse than plugging Tebow in at quarterback (right, Kevin Kolb/Curtis Painter/Matt Moore?), but don't assume that he's going to set the world of fantasy football ablaze just because he has the keys to the offense in Denver.

For one, the Broncos' offense is not designed with Tebow in mind. Denver came into the season with an offensive system tailored to Kyle Orton's specific talents (whatever they may be). Clearly Orton didn't perform all too well in that offense, which allowed to Tebow to rise to the forefront.

And while Orton isn't a spectacular passer by any means, he at least has some idea of how to throw the ball in the NFL and more than 3.5 games worth of experience doing so.

Then again, nobody's trying to argue that Orton should start over Tebow anymore. The second-year signal-caller's fantasy value isn't simply contingent on the fact that the Broncos' offense isn't Tebow-centric.

It's that Denver's attack isn't predicated on the pass in the first place.

Broncos quarterbacks have racked up the third-fewest passing attempts of any group in the NFL, with only the 49ers and the Chiefs throwing the ball less frequently. Granted, the numbers are still a bit skewed by the different number of games that teams have played to this point. Plus the Broncos aren't exactly a run-first offense, either (118 attempts, fourth-fewest in the league).

But Tebow owners can hardly expect Denver to suddenly become an aerial juggernaut with Timmy under center. Aside from Tebow's own inexperience and inability to deliver the ball in an efficient and NFL-friendly manner, Broncos coach John Fox has long been known to prefer more conservative offensive schemes. Only once during his nine years in Carolina did the Panthers finish top 10 in the NFL in passing yardage in a given season.

Not that Fox, a defensive guru, necessarily had control of the offense, but rather that his teams tend to prefer a strong ground game to a high-flying aerial attack. This trend figures to continue with a quarterback as limited in NFL acumen as Tebow taking snaps under center—especially now that Brandon Lloyd, formerly Denver's best wide receiver, is with the St. Louis Rams.

The Broncos still have some talent at the position,—Eddie Royal, Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas come to mind—but removing a pass-catcher of Lloyd's caliber from the equation, regardless of the financial reasons behind it, leaves Tebow without a receiver who can get open any time and anywhere when Timmy's busy trying to make something out of a broken play.

(Of which there will be many since (again) Tebow is anything but well-versed in the ways of the NFL quarterback, reading complex defenses and working the entire field.)

Will the Broncos consider using Tebow more on running plays, which would boost his fantasy value? Perhaps, but then again, that's what Willis McGahee is for.

On the positive side of the ledger, Tebow will be starting against the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks of any team in the NFL, and will face the Broncos in a game following a ceremony to honor the 2008 Florida Gators that Tebow led to the BCS National Championship.

In the long run, though, Tebow is an iffy pickup—at best—until he proves that he can throw the ball effectively to a depleted receiving corps.