NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 7

This week presents an interesting slate of games—three home ‘dogs, two double-digit spreads and a partridge in a pear tree.  I know, I know. It’s way too early for Christmas talk.

Week 6 was a another loser for the Pick Against Josh system—I went 6-6-1 last week with my picks.

That leaves me at 41-43-6 (or about 48 percent) on the season. The Ravens, Raiders and the night games got me back up to .500, which is still a losing position, but I digress.

Week 7 features off-weeks for the Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles and 49ers.

Let’s check out the games for everyone else. 

An earlier version of this post listed Seattle and Houston as three-point favorites in their games. They were actually three-point underdogs. I regret the error. -JZ.

CHICAGO -2.5 over Tampa Bay in London

The Bears did something last Sunday night that few great teams are capable of doing—showcasing a killer instinct in a nationally-televised game.

Minnesota threw in the towel after three quarters and let Christian Ponder into the game (more on him later). Jay Cutler was only sacked once, and Devin Hester popped off another kickoff return for a touchdown.

The Buccaneers had their “We’re not dead yet” game last week, edging out the Saints only seven days after getting blown out against the Niners.

Raheem Morris’ team is 23rd in sacks and will likely be missing LeGarrette Blount for the second straight week.

Tampa Bay is technically the home team, which seems unfair. But hey, free trip to Europe.

CAROLINA -2.5 over Washington

Quarterbacking vagabond John Beck will make his fifth career start in Charlotte after Rex Grossman returned to form last weekend with four interceptions against the Eagles.

The Redskins will continue their shell game in their offensive backfield, but it won’t matter. There’s so little difference between Ryan Torain and an injured Tim Hightower.

Carolina’s game in Atlanta was the first Panthers loss with a margin of more than one touchdown, but it was still a close game, and it’s time for the Panthers to steal one for the win column.

Facing an overwhelmed quarterback making his first start in four years presents the opportunity to do that.

San Diego -2 over NEW YORK JETS

The Jets looked awful on national TV against division rival Miami, an unsettling fact for anyone expecting Gang Green to play in their third straight AFC Championship game.

Mark Sanchez continues to underwhelm, overthrowing receivers with plenty of time in the pocket.

LaDainian Tomlinson’s play has been the lone bright spot on this Jets offense, which is disturbing for a team that only manages 80 yards per game.

The Chargers have a chance to pull away in the AFC West—the Broncos and Chiefs are already circling the drain, and Carson Palmer may not be ready to step on the field right away.

The Jets are only the second decent team that San Diego will have faced.

All Philip Rivers has to do is not throw it to Darrelle Revis, which is a lot easier than the Dolphins’ Matt Moore made it look last Monday night.

Seattle +3 over CLEVELAND

This matchup has me wishing that the NFL had relegation.

It’s not really fair to rip Tarvaris Jackson’s play, especially when his QB rating is higher than Joe Flacco’s and his most productive receiver is some guy named Doug Baldwin.

That’s the name of a guy that would be laying grout in your kitchen, not someone leading your NFL team to victory. Doug Baldwin does neither.

Anyway, Seahawks backup QB Charlie Whitehurst got the call when Jackson went down with an injury two weeks ago against the Giants, and he rallied his team.

Cleveland, meanwhile is heading in reverse. Peyton Hillis seems like the opposite of prepared to play football after sitting out a game with strep throat and then going down with a weird hamstring injury that went unreported during the Browns’ loss to Oakland.

Colt McCoy has hardly been efficient—of the six quarterbacks with worse passer ratings, three will be on the bench this week.

Houston +3 over TENNESSEE

Both the Texans and the Titans employ nicknames recycled from other teams.

The Kansas City Chiefs were called the Texans until they moved to Kansas City from Dallas in 1962, and the Titans was a moniker that belonged to New York’s AFL franchise before they were renamed the Jets by new ownership in that same year.

Tennessee’s franchise played in Texas until 1996 as the “Houston Oilers,” but then moved to the Volunteer state.

They played two years as the “Tennessee Oilers,” spending one in Memphis and one in Vanderbilt before they opened their Nashville stadium in 1999 as the “Tennessee Titans.”

This is all just a long way of saying that there’s no way I’m putting money on Matt Hasselbeck.

Denver +1.5 over MIAMI

Te-BOW! Te-BOW! Te-BOW! Te-BOW!

DETROIT -3 over Atlanta

The Falcons continue to lose games that they should be losing. Expect the trend to continue here with a Lions win, followed by the most polite handshake in NFL history shortly thereafter.

OAKLAND -4.5 over Kansas City

The Raiders expect Carson Palmer to play, and they should.

Even though the guy hasn’t taken an NFL snap in almost 10 months, they gave up two big picks to get him.

It’s kinda like when you take a woman out to a nice dinner and then head back to your place afterwards. No, it’s exactly like that.

I’m somewhat sad that Todd Haley didn’t get fired before the bye week like I predicted he would.

I think this “Suck for Luck” business has become an epidemic—nobody’s going to fire the coach that might lead his organization to the biggest draft prospect in 30 years.

Hopefully the Raiders are happy with the quarterback upon which they spent their picks a bit early.

Pittsburgh -3.5 over ARIZONA

My prediction—Ben Roethlisberger explodes.

And then he has a really good game against the Cardinals.

Arizona State just went on lockdown. If only the Cardinals secondary could do the same.

Green Bay -8.5 over MINNESOTA

This pick is like shooting fish in a bucket.

Christian Ponder (a) will be making his first career start against the defending Super Bowl champions, and (b) he is not Aaron Rodgers.

But Green Bay is vulnerable against the pass—they allow nearly 300 yards a game through the air.

I just don’t expect Ponder, for whom the Vikings horribly overreached in April’s draft, to be the guy that can exploit it.

NEW ORLEANS -14 over Indianapolis

I honestly cannot wait to see this game, where one of two things will happen.

Either the Colts defense will strap this team on their backs and keep it close, or Drew Brees will destroy them.

And I don’t care which happens—I’m excited to see Drew Brees, Darren Sproles and the Saints back on national TV. They are fun to watch.

Baltimore -7.5 over JACKSONVILLE

These teams are not fun to watch.

Baltimore might have the best running back in the league in Ray Rice, and sadly, we’ll be subjected to another not-so-close game on Monday night.

I almost feel bad for ESPN, who spent all that money for the Monday night rights to get a horrible game like this one.

I guess $15 billion doesn’t go as far as it used to.