NFL Picks Week 7: Steer Clear of Sky High Spreads for Cowboys and Saints

Nothing’s worse than trying to talk your self into a double-digit point spread. In Week 7, there are two games with jumbo-sized spreads that are just too much to take.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys -12.5

The Cowboys are not good.

Watch the fourth quarter of last week’s game and it’s starting to become clear that the coaching staff doesn’t trust QB Tony Romo anymore.

The running game is in shambles without Felix Jones, and the defense is below average.

So why are they favored by so much?

Because of the Rams’ record. They haven’t played well, but the schedule has been incredibly difficult.

The run kills them, but the Cowboys don’t have the personnel to exploit it. The Rams may have only scored three points last week, but they registered over 400 yards.

Now that Sam Bradford (who should play despite dealing with an ankle injury) has Brandon Lloyd at his disposal, the offense finally has a deep threat.

While I think the Cowboys end up winning, it’s going to be within this generous point spread.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 Rams 20

Key Trends:

Cowboys are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.

Cowboys are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Rams are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints -14

This was going to be one of the best games going into the season, now it’s the highest spread of the week.

The Colts are bad, no doubt about it, but the team is not getting blown out with Curtis Painter under center. They have lost their last five games by 10 points or fewer.

Meanwhile the Saints are 4-2, but haven’t looked great thus far. Drew Brees threw three interceptions in a loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday, including one throw that even Painter wouldn’t have made.

Having head coach Sean Payton in the press box is going to hurt the team at first. He’s the emotional leader that is very hands-on while patrolling the sidelines. There are going to be some growing pains in the first week.

I don’t think this will be the Colts first win in the rematch of the 2010 Super Bowl, but I do think they’ll be hanging around in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Saints 31 Colts 20

Key Trends:

Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Saints are 2-10 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8eight games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.