College Football Picks Week 8: Saturday Sports Betting Guide

Professional sports bettors are entering the most profitable time of any college football season and can only hope that the high-profile teams start cooling off against the spread.

The top eight teams in the first installment of the BCS standings are a combined 41-9-1 ATS through seven weeks of the season.

Let's take a look at seven Saturday games from a betting perspective.

Kansas State (-11) at Kansas

The Kansas State Wildcats are making a name for themselves in the Big 12 Conference, but something is very alarming from a betting perspective.

In each of the last four wins, the program out of Manhattan has been out-gained, including by 241 yards in a 41-34 victory over the Texas Tech Red Raiders as 3.5-point road underdogs.

I'd be less-than-enthusiastic to lay this type of number on a team that is being backed by over 90 percent of the public, while posting a 2-11 ATS mark as a road favorite.

Kansas is hard to back in losing four consecutive contests, but the team will also be playing a team ranked in the Top 12 for the third-straight week.

The Jayhawks may lose the game, but head coach Turner Gill is 16-7-1 ATS when playing conference opponents in a revengeful state of mind.

Sharp money is holding this line steady and you should join in on playing the underdog.

Maryland at Florida State (-17)

Before you start thinking about an upset, take into account that the Florida State Seminoles are 19-2 in the all-time series, including an unblemished 10-0 mark inside Doak Campbell Stadium.

A rallying cry in Tallahassee is expected, as the program currently sits at an even 3-3 record, but one of those victories came against a non-FBS opponent.

Florida State will need to win at least four of its last six games to become bowl eligible, which would continue the nation's longest active streak with 29 appearances in the postseason.

Maryland has been out-gained in all five games since its season-opening win over Miami, while also bringing in a 2-7 ATS mark inside Saturday's venue.

Want to know something else—the Terrapins are the public's choice at over an 80 percent clip in straight-betting, which signals to me that a blowout is on the horizon.

A motivated Florida State team is much better than a fraudulent Georgia Tech.

Casual bettors are placing too much emphasis on the 21-16 road defeat against the Yellow Jackets, as the Terrapins scored a spread victory as 15.5-point underdogs.

Illinois (-4) at Purdue

Illinois Fighting Illini laid an absolute egg last week in dropping a 17-7 contest to the Ohio State Buckeyes as 3.5-point home favorites, but actually came out ahead in terms of total yardage.

Head coach Ron Zook finally came away with a win in this series in last year's 44-10 blowout victory as 16.5-point home favorites.

Before thinking about a letdown after the team's first loss, take into account Illinois' 5-1 ATS mark following a straight-up defeat.

Purdue has beaten absolutely no one, with the most impressive victory coming against Minnesota at home.

The game is likely to be determined between the Boilermakers 24th-ranked rushing offense against the Fighting Illini's 18th-ranked rushing defense.

That's a difficult battle to win, considering Illinois has rushed for 1,473 yards this season and given up just 689.

Smart money was clearly on the home underdog when the line was 6.5, but it might be time to play the road team at 3.5.

Zook's 1-11 ATS mark as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points doesn't have me running up to the window though, as two of those spread losses have already occurred this year.

Arkansas (-16) at Mississippi

If you've noticed, double-digit underdogs aren't exactly doing well in the Southeastern Conference this year, something to think about come bowl season.

Mississippi has dropped all three of its SEC games and been out-gained by an incredible margin in each of those contests.

Arkansas is coming off a bye week and that's been trouble for all opponents that face Bobby Petrino, as the head coach is 25-8 when given more than a week to prepare for a game.

When laying points on the road, you want to make sure the squad can take advantage of scoring opportunities, something that the Razorbacks excel at.

The team is 25-of-26 inside the 20-yard line this year, scoring 19 touchdowns.

The Razorbacks have been an ATM machine in covering 20 of their last 29 against the spread.

Not about to go against them.

Texas A&M (-21) at Iowa State

The public have piled on the Texas A&M Aggies in the early going, but oddsmakers got lazy in sending this contest out on a key number.

Despite the heavy action on the Aggies, the line has moved in the opposite direction.

Value is squarely on the home underdog in those contest, especially when hosting its 99th Homecoming game.

Iowa State quarterback Steele Jantz is currently listed as probable with an ankle injury, as he's needed in any hopes of covering this number, throwing for 10 touchdowns and running for two more scores since taking over the job.

Texas A&M is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games.

Auburn at LSU (-22.5)

The LSU Tigers are No. 1 in the BCS standings and winners of five consecutive games in this series at Tiger Stadium.

One thing that would concern me is Auburn head coach Gene Chizik is 9-0 during his time on campus in games decided by four points or less, but I don't anticipate that being the case Saturday.

The favorite is also 7-3-1 ATS in this series.

LSU has held its first four SEC opponents to a combined 31 points, while winning its first seven games by double-digits for the first time in school history.

Early action on this game is split, but bettors have moved the line off a key number.

Due to LSU needing to just win out to make it to the BCS Championship Game, I'm not exactly jumping on the favorite.

Les Miles is also a less-than-inspiring 5-20 ATS at home against conference opponents.

Wisconsin (-7.5) at Michigan State

During my time as a sports book supervisor at The Cosmopolitan Las Vegas for Cantor Gaming, I got a chance to develop relationships with some of the bigger bettors in town.

I had a long conversation with one of them today about this particular game.

He felt that the casual public would be drawn to playing the home underdog due to handing Michigan a loss last week on national television.

I came back with the fact that I feel Vegas would have had an onslaught of Wisconsin money if it placed the line anywhere near a touchdown.

Beating the Wolverines just isn't a big deal to the Spartans anymore, moving their win streak to four games in the series with a 28-14 win as three-point home favorites.

The Spartans have also won and covered all six games following its in-state rivalry game when taking on a revenge-minded opponent.

Michigan State's only loss this season came on the road to Notre Dame, but it came away with more total yards, something that both of these teams have done in each game this season.

One key point that I brought up in this conversation is the fact that I don't think Wisconsin can reach the BCS Championship Game unless Alabama, LSU or Oklahoma lose a game.

At least one of those teams will end up with a blemish on its record, as the two SEC teams play each other next month.

With that being said, the Badgers must be respected against any line, winning nine consecutive Big Ten Conference games by an average of 29.5 points.

Want to guess the last such opponent it lost to—getting out-gained by 155 yards in the process?

You guessed it. 

A Michigan State team that comes in on a 11-game home winning streak, the longest in school history since 1964-66.