NFL Picks Week 6: Predictions for All Games Straight Up, Against the Spread, O/U

2011 NFL Season Totals:  Straight Up:  52-25,  Against the Spread:  44-33,  Over/Under:  42-35

Well, I squeaked by in Week 5 and am still rather respectable in the winning column. I’m never happy unless I have double digit wins, but what can you do? Apparently many prognosticators had bad weeks since I am still leading both of my pools thanks to a strong first month.  Whew!

If I learned anything last week it is not to second-guess one’s instincts. As I wrote to a regular reader, “There is a reason they tell you not to change your first answer on the SAT!” I changed the Texans/Raiders pick to the Texans after Al Davis died. I did not think that they had the leadership and heart to rally on the road. Good for them. It’s hard to be too upset, particularly since I have always wished Jason Campbell well through all of his seemingly hundreds of offensive systems.

Onward and upward.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Straight Up:  Carolina

Against the Spread:  Carolina Panthers +4.5

Over/Under:  over 50

This is a game of two star QBs and two defenses hurt by injuries. Here’s a sign of the 2011 season: Newton’s QB rating is 84.3; Ryan’s is 79.9. Of course, Matty Ice has practically had his head twisted off multiple times these past few weeks. When did you ever expect the new Falcons to be averaging 19 points per game? Wow.

Carolina is practically playing guys off of the street at LB and now three D-linemen (including Abraham) are questionable. Carolina’s safety Hines is sick and Tackle extraordinaire Otah has a bad back. Don’t all offensive linemen have bad backs sooner or later? Parents, take note when the coach says he wants little Jimmy to play Guard.

Atlanta will be missing rookie star WR Jones and White (who is in a bit of a slump anyway) has a sore knee. Add in two safeties and two O-linemen and the Dirty Birds have some injury issues.

This one’s a toss up:

1)    both teams have excellent running games that they haven’t been using consistently.

2)    Atlanta has more experience, is playing on their home turf and is probably more desperate.

3)    Carolina’s QB can run, which (with these O-lines) is probably a Panther advantage.

I’m going with Carolina on the upset theory.

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions

Straight Up:  San Francisco 

Against the Spread:  San Francisco +5.5

Over/Under:  over 47

Detroit’s most significant injury is TE Scheffler. With Pettigrew coming on, however, that is not as deadly as it would have been in the past.

Meanwhile, just when things are looking up for Alex Smith, both Crabtree and Edwards are hurt. Plus a Guard and the Center are less than healthy, though they plan to play. Don’t worry Alex; it’s only Suh. Yikes. The crucial matchup is Frank Gore versus the Detroit DTs.

This should be a great game. Now that’s something you didn’t think you’d hear anytime soon, right?  The stats favor Detroit slightly (but only slightly) and the Detroit fans are practically insane with excitement and will be dedicated to causing a bunch more false starts. But their success isn’t the big surprise that the Niners’ is. The Lions could pull it off by virtue of a couple of big plays. But I’m thinking it might be close. In fact, I'm picking the 49ers to upset.

Anyone still think coaches with heart don’t make a difference? How about we check in with fans of Detroit, San Francisco and Buffalo? 

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals

Straight Up:  Indianapolis—they have to win sometime, right? This theory got me a win with the Vikings last week and I think that the Colts are due.

Against the Spread: Indianapolis +8

Over/Under: over 40.5 (It will be windy. Ironically, Cincy faced these conditions just last week while Curtis is just getting his sea legs in a dome. Okay, a tortured metaphor—but you get the point.)

Well, it’s only taken nine years, but Marvin Lewis finally has that good D we've been expecting since season two in Cincy—except that Maualuga is out and CB Jennings is questionable. Of course, in the absence of starting RB Addai for Indy, it may not matter. Cincy's D should still be tough and I can’t wait to see the matchup between Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Jerome Simpson and Jermaine Gresham against the Colts’ shaky pass D. You do realize they’re on grass, right? Hmmmm.

Offensively, two O-linemen are hurting for Indy: not such terrific news for young Painter. Is that his official name now? “Young Painter?”

If Marvin has been watching any tape at all, he’ll blanket Pierre Garcon with DBs and force Curtis to throw elsewhere—like to Wayne, maybe? Well, that’s not so bad. And we’ll get to see if backup runner Delone Carter can get anything going against that Jungle D. For those of us who didn’t know this young man, he’s from Akron, went to Syracuse and has rushed 41 times in his career for 125 yards and a TD. Let’s see whatcha got, kid.

Shocking statistic:  Painter’s QB rating is 100!  But this game will hinge on the Colts’ D.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Straight Up:  Washington

Against the Spread:  Washington +2.5

Over/Under:  under 47

Starting Redskins’ rusher Hightower is questionable. I’d be more upset except that Torain and Helu are rocking the rock in 2011. Plus, the current state of the Philly LBing corps favors my aunt Millie carrying the ball.

This is excellent for Washington because deep threat Armstrong has a hammy problem, which might tend to curtail the deep part of the threat. Playmakers Buchanon and Cooley and Hall are all questionable as well. Ugh.

Lest we forget, the Redskins’ D is allowing less than 300 yards per game. Total.

On the other hand, Philly is gaining 445 yards (though only 21 points) every week. The ‘Iggles will have the services of Avant, whose veteran savvy has made him a good option for Vick in these turbulent times when No. 7 doesn’t have enough time to get to his own vertical receivers, which appears to be most of the time these days.

"What does it profit a team to pay a man 100 million dollars and lose their entire season?" I’m pretty sure that’s a bad paraphrase of the Book of Matthew.

St Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers

Straight Up: Green Bay

Against the Spread:  St. Louis +15.5

Over/Under: over 47.5 (cloudy and lower 60’s—man are the Packer fans enjoying the weather or what?)

The best hope I can offer Sam Bradford and his team is that Jennings has a groin pull, Matthews has a quad bruise, Zombo’s shoulder is acting up, Quarless has a sore knee and Woodson has a sore foot and knee.

Of course none of that stopped them last year. Too bad the Rams’ injuries are killing them (plus a complete lack of willingness on the part of ownership to do anything about signing a real wide receiver.)  Oh, and Week 6 always leads to a lot of upsets. That’s it, Sam. That’s all I’ve got in the good news department.

Green Bay is scoring almost 34 points per contest and giving up 18. How do you beat that? Still, over two touchdowns is an awful lot of spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Straight Up:  Pittsburgh

Against the Spread:  Jacksonville +14

Over/Under:  over 40 (it’s supposed to rain in the afternoon, so keep an eye on the clouds)

All sorts of needless drama going on about Mendenhall and the Steelers. What? Is the guy a jerk? (And don’t give me the Bin Laden stuff. He wasn’t the only person in this country made uncomfortable by the sight of college kids partying over anyone’s death.) I’d be a lot more upset if he were mean to the equipment staff. Word is that he will start.

With Moore hurt, I guess this could be Isaac’s big chance to show that he is the man, with a lot of help from Dwyer. The O-line is still playing the shell game as Scott moves right, Starks stays at left and Legursky goes seemingly anywhere.

Interestingly enough, the new Pittsburgh offensive scheme of shorter passes may not be taking advantage of Wallace’s all-out-go to the end zone, but he threw five TD passes last week. Fantasy aside, it’s still a game about scoring points, right?

Jacksonville handled their QB situation almost as badly as did Denver. And 13 guys on the injury list aren’t helping the Florida team's issues. Second WR Hill has a bum thigh, TE Miller a bum shoulder, WR Osgood is sporting a bum hamstring and half the defense has a bum something else.

But watch out for LB Posluszny. He was awesome last week against the Bengals and I hope he will screw up at least a couple of Ben’s plays. Roethlisberger, I must confess, is completley screwing up my honeymoon theory by playing so well and so toughly in 2011. What, Ben? Neglecting the wife? Geez.

Half of the Steeler defense is hurt, though, which is all the encouragement I can truthfully give Gabbert. Aside from Jones-Drew and Deji Karim (and who'd ever heard of him before October?), there isn't a lot of silver in this cloud. Hang in there, kid. Week 6 is upset city, so anything could happen. Theoretically.

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants

Straight Up: New York Giants

Against the Spread:  Buffalo +3.5

Over/Under:  under 50

The emergent Bills have injury issues this week against Big Blue. GB and Buffalo defensive hero Nick Barnett is questionable with an ankle problem. The always-injured Merriman is doubtful as his body continues to fall apart. Two Nose Tackles are hurting (how many does a team have, for heaven’s sake?) And emerging WR Jones is out.

A break for the Bills is that it’s the second game where the Giants will be without Jacobs. Not to mention that Tuck is out on the D-line and Umenyiora is not full strength by far.

I think the Bills finally proved to the cynics that all of those interceptions weren’t just flukes; they are the result of good secondary play. If the Giants can’t run and Eli starts pressing, look out!

I have to go with the Giants at home to win by a whisker.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders

Straight Up:  Cleveland

Against the Spread:  Cleveland +7.5

Over/Under:  under 44.5  Cloudy and 70’s. Unless the Browns really are going to run Hillis and run Hillis and run Hillis (I want to believe this strategy, but I have to see it), they won’t be able to generate much offense.

Cleveland will probably not have two of their best players on the field:  young CB Haden and all-Pro (but also young) Center Alex Mack are probably out. If you live under a sports-blocking rock during the week or don’t follow the Browns, Mack played all last week with a painful stomachache and nausea only to be hospitalized with acute appendicitis immediately afterward. Makes me want to crawl into the fetal position just thinking about it.

Oakland will be without two CBs: last week’s hero S Huff and DE Shaughnessy. MLB McClain is questionable, as is power rusher/FB Reece. Everyone else, from Campbell to WR Murphy and Center Satele, are dinged up.

I’m going with the Browns only on the anticipated letdown theory for the Silver and Black. We’ll see how much heart the D has now that they are operating in a partial vacuum led by Jauron. A lot, if Jauron has been taking advantage of not being under the gun. Except for the fact that Haden won’t be on the field. But the Raiders are rushing over 160 yards each and every game. I think you see the issue in this game.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Straight Up:  Baltimore

Against the Spread:  Houston +7.0

Over/Under:  under 45  Sunny and 70’s.

Houston is very lucky that there are some significant injuries on the Ravens: CB Chris Carr-out, CB Jimmy Smith-out, Safety Zbikowski-out. Good news for a Texans' team still without Andre Johnson.

But injuries work both ways and Flacco still won’t have planned deep threat Evans on the field. This presents an opportunity for rookie Torrey Smith to prove that he is more than a one-hit wonder at wideout.

But nothing matches the injury devastation facing Houston: Williams out for the year, Johnson out for another game, RB Casey doubtful/out with a torn muscle (he had a big game last week in case you missed it). Schaub will play but that perennial shoulder problem has reared its ugly head again. There are so many players hurt for the Texans that I had to scroll down to read them all. Oh dear.

The key stat is that Baltimore is only averaging 241 passing yards each week. This is why everyone is trashing Flacco. You know, the guy who still hasn’t been given a legit WRing corps—as in "more than Boldin," who is only good over the middle. Let’s get Lee Evans back, see if he has anything left and then talk to me about Flacco. In the meantime, this offense has done pretty well with a guy who is only a little taller than my 5'2" and has thighs bigger than my waist.

As long as Ray and Terrell can stop Foster, Baltimore will be fine here.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Straight Up:  New Orleans

Against the Spread:  Tampa Bay +4.5

Over/Under:  Over 49  It’s still windy in Florida, even on the other side of the state!

LeGarrette Blount’s knee looks like it’s going to keep him out of this game. Also missing will be TE Stocker and WR Stroughter. Uh-oh. See, when you’re playing the Saints it’s usually a good idea to keep the ball out of Brees’ hands.

When Brees does get the ball, watch to see if the TE causing all the buzz can get a fourth straight game with 100 yards. I’m certainly going to be watching, because they are calling Jimmy Graham the “next Tony Gonzalez.” That will either inspire or jinx him for sure.

Defensively, the Saints seriously need to remember that they used to be feared. Particularly with Vilma fighting a knee injury, it’s time for some attitude, guys. What is up, Gregg? Where’s the fire, the passion? And I certainly don’t mean cheap-shotting a WR who stands about 5' nothing in the end zone. (Not that I would ever question Steve Smith’s ability to defend himself.)

The main interest in this game will be whether and how much Tampa Bay can rally—and that’s always worth your spectating time.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots

Straight Up: Can’t they both lose? I guess not—Dallas

Against the Spread: Dallas +7.5

Over/Under:  over 55.5

This would be Tom Brady’s seven millionth consecutive home win (if you listen to Boston fans.) But yeah, it’s kind of hard to go against a stat like that. However, I seem to be physically unable to type “New England” into the win column. 

I would say that Green-Ellis’ toe injury would be good news for Dallas (and it actually is, since the Boys have a great run D.) But that probably means Brady will just get 400 aerial yardage with Welker and the two TEs.

Once again, DeMarcus Ware will have to be a one-man coverage squad as well as stopping the run. That’s a lot to ask.

Besides, Pats' runner Stevan Ridley and the recently returned Woodhead certainly have game when rushing the ball, although little Danny has been hurt. Heart of the Pats’ defense, Jerod Mayo, is listed as questionable and his status will have a tremendous effect on the New England defensive showing.

Dallas is getting back their two deep threats in Austin and Bryant, but FB Fiammetta is out. Felix Jones has another sore shoulder, two safeties are hurting and you do remember about Romo’s ribs right? I’m willing to bet that they aren’t “all better” yet.

This is me stretching the “Week 6 Upset Theory” to the limit.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Straight Up:  Minnesota

Against the Spread:  Minnesota +3.5

Over/Under:  under 42  It will be raining

Quote of the week. From Mike Martz via espn.com regarding (what else) the O-line:

“(Last year), once we stabilized the line...things went well. But that's not the case (this year.) So we've got to make sure we're giving him (Cutler) a chance with some of those quicker throws...It's all part of the system. We just change gears and go in that direction. It's not hard.”

Easy for you to say, Mrs. Doubtfire (not original, I’m afraid, but you can see it, right?). I’ll believe it when it happens, but I do believe that if Lovie “motivates” Mike sufficiently, it is possible.

As an aside here, I jumped on Cutler last year not for leaving the game with a real injury, but for his total lack of leadership on the sidelines (see LT in the AFC Championship game for San Diego). LT has found his leadership chops in New York, so perhaps Jay can rise to the occasion. But we can’t question his toughness at all—or heart. That was an inspiring performance Monday against Detroit. I would have been hiding under the bench, not just sitting on it. Way to go, Jay.

The problem with this “feel good scenario” is that the Vikings have a great pass rush. According to Bruno’s honeymoon theory, Jared Allen is right on schedule for rebounding in the second year since his marriage. (Romo fans, blame the new blonde wife—and you know I’m not blonde bashing. I’m just saying it’s never a good sign when a QB marries a former beauty queen.)

Jared was far too distracted to play well in ’10 but he’s back to thinking straight, has recorded 8.5 sacks in five games and will be coming straight for Cutler. However, if Cutler can somehow stay upright, Minnesota is playing a backup CB and it’s not going all that well in the secondary.

But good news for the Vikes is that Harvin dodged a bullet on his injury and should be back. He usually plays very well against Da Bears, so I hope he’ll boost the offense. Did I mention that Chicago is allowing 284 yards per game through the air? Plus, Julius Peppers is doubtful. Was that Donovan McNabb I just saw cracking a smile? I hope so; it’s been a rough couple of years for a good guy.

By the way, the Vikings (read Adrian Peterson) are running over 150 yards per game while the Chicago Bears are allowing 150 yards per game on the ground. Sounds like a marriage made in heaven.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Straight Up:  New York

Against the Spread:  New York –7.5

Over/Under:  Over 42.5

This is the must-win of must-wins for the Jets. If they don’t win, Rex and Sanchez will need disguises. I’m nervous about the spread simply by virtue of the fact that the Jets can’t stop the run.

The Dolphins don’t have a QB but they do definitely have a running game (and I don’t mean Bush). Matt Moore, here’s your chance, dude. MNF! Let me introduce you to Hartline and Marshall. Throw to them every time Daniel Thomas isn’t running the ball. If you get in trouble, look for Fasano. That’s it, my expert coaching pitch. Oh, and good luck.

Sanchez is getting heat for declaring it his “job to lead the team.” And you wouldn’t criticize him if he kept quiet and rode the bike on the sidelines? Please. The Dolphins should help, since they are currently 31^st in the League versus the pass.

You’ve probably heard that there was dissension in the ranks over Schottenheimer’s play-calling (must be genetic). So the Jets “jettisoned” Derrick Mason this week. Yeah, that’ll help.

This pick is based solidly on which team is the most dysfunctional and I'm sorry to say that I think it's the Dolphins.

Bring on the sudds and the guacamole!