Theo Epstein to Chicago Cubs Hits Snag: Could it be Billy Beane Circa 2002?

It has been widely reported that the Chicago Cubs and Theo Epstein have agreed to a five-year contract that will make Epstein the new GM of the Cubs.

But now, the news coming out of Boston is that the negotiations over compensation have hit a snag.

Back in 2002, Billy Beane agreed to become the GM of the Red Sox. But while the compensation package was being worked out between the A's and Sox, Beane had a change of heart and decided to stay put in Oakland.

Now, I am very skeptical that the same thing could be developing in this case, for the simple reason that the Sox seem to be more than willing to let Epstein walk away.

So willing, in fact, that they have apparently already handed the job over to Ben Cherington, Epstein's top lieutenant in Boston.

But you have to wonder what the Sox would do if they couldn't come to an agreement over compensation. Would they force Epstein to stay on for one more year of grooming Cherington out of spite?

That seems unlikely, since there is a clause in Epstein's contract that would pay him a big bonus if he stays on through the end of the season. 

However, because he has one year left on his four-year deal with the Sox, Boston has every right to seek compensation in order to release him from the contract.

I'm sure this is not a surprise to Tom Ricketts and the Cubs. 

But what is a bit surprising to me is that at least the framework behind the compensation package hadn't already been agreed to before the Sox let the Cubs talk to Epstein.

For Ricketts would seem to have all the leverage at this point.

If Boston were to rescind now, it would disappoint Cherington, piss off Epstein and create a potentially volatile situation this year.

And after what the Sox just went through, they certainly wouldn't want that.  

So the two sides probably will come to an agreement. From what I've heard, the Cubs wanted to send cash but the Sox want prospects.

Even if prospects are eventually agreed to, they shouldn't be the likes of Andrew Cashner or Brett Jackson, in my opinion.

The only thing we do know is that major league players won't be part of the deal. The Commissioner's office is said to be monitoring this closely, for fear that a big trade between the teams might start a precedent.

For example, if as part of the deal, the Cubs agreed to trade top prospects to the Sox in exchange for one of their big contracts—say J.D. Drew or John Lackey—that would seriously concern MLB.

To further inflame the conspiracy theory, reports indicate that Epstein was back at his Boston office and "remained engaged in his normal duties."

And Epstein apparently hasn't informed his staff that he's taking the Cubs job.

Now, all of this could simply be a matter of not wanting to talk before the agreement has been finalized.

Meanwhile, Moneyball is playing at your local theater. And its architect is still in Oakland.

Just sayin'.