NFL Picks Week 6: Atlanta Falcons and 4 Teams That Should Be on Upset Alert

Upsets seem to come out of nowhere in the NFL on a weekly basis, so they are often difficult to predict. With that said, sometimes betting lines can look a bit fishy, and that is an excellent indicator that an upset could possibly be on the horizon.

Week 6 features plenty of lukewarm teams as favorites, meaning that they could certainly be ripe for the picking. No team is bulletproof in the NFL, but there are times when teams are set up to fail when they are erroneously installed as favorites.

Here are four favorites that not only may fail to cover the spread this weekend, but stand a very good chance of losing outright against tricky opponents.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals have been an absolute revelation at 3-2, but I get the feeling that they can only hold up for so long. Sure they're very solid defensively, but the offense has plenty of question marks that may catch up with them in the coming weeks.

Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has held up well, but he hasn't really been asked to win a game on his own yet. He'll have to do that eventually and it remains to be seen if he can. Also, running back Cedric Benson is playing with a pending suspension looming.

The Bengals have a very winnable game against the 0-5 Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but they are seven-point favorites, which seems a bit hefty. The Colts are obviously a shell of their former selves without Peyton Manning, but they have played much more inspired football with Curtis Painter under center the past couple weeks.

The Colts have kept it close against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs, and seem to be on the verge of a victory. A lot of it depends on their ability to stop the run, but I just don't think that the Bengals are established enough to be such heavy favorites. Cincinnati has been the underdog all season, so it may not handle the role of favorite too well.

New York Giants

The New York Giants bounced back nicely from a Week 1 loss to the Washington Redskins by rattling off three wins in succession, but that momentum was brought to a screeching halt last weekend when the G-Men were upset at home by the Seattle Seahawks.

Despite that loss, the Giants will be three-point favorites when they host the 4-1 Buffalo Bills on Sunday. The Bills have been one of the NFL's biggest surprises, but the oddsmakers obviously haven't bought in yet, as they are once again underdogs even though they have victories over the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots this season.

The Giants will definitely be able to move the ball on the Bills' defense, but no team has forced more turnovers than Buffalo. This is terrible news for Giants quarterback Eli Manning, who is extremely prone to throwing interceptions, and threw one to cap New York's loss last week.

Also, the Bills have one of the league's more complete offenses thus far and should have success against New York's injury-riddled defense. Even if both Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora play for the Giants, it may not make a difference, because Ryan Fitzpatrick is the league's least-sacked quarterback. All of this points to a Buffalo cover and outright victory.

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears have been a pretty disappointing team in 2011 on the heels of winning the NFC North last season. Chicago has gotten off to a 2-3 start and has most often been failed by its trademark defense rather than much-maligned quarterback Jay Cutler.

While they were able to hang with the undefeated Lions for much of last week's game, the Bears were eventually put away thanks to Detroit running game. Lions running back Jahvid Best hadn't been much of a factor as a rusher in the early part of the season, but he absolutely decimated what looked to be a slow and overmatched Bears defense.

If the Bears had trouble with Best, it will be very interesting to see how they handle running back Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The Vikings are only 1-4, but all of their losses were close, and when they finally decided to focus completely on running the ball last week, they won easily.

The Bears are three-point favorites at home, but they are very vulnerable to an upset. Chicago's biggest asset on offense is running back Matt Forte, but Minnesota is strong against the run and could render him a non-factor. Unless the Bears make adjustments throughout the week and significantly tighten up their run defense, Peterson and the Vikings should have a big night.

Atlanta Falcons

Much was expected of the Atlanta Falcons this season after finishing 13-3 in 2010, but the 2011 season has been a trying one for the Falcons thus far. At 2-3, Atlanta already has as many losses as it had all of last season, and it is already two games back of the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South.

The Falcons have been killed by their ineffectiveness against the pass on defense. Opposing teams have moved the ball through the air with ease against them, so the Falcons' offense has been forced to play catch up and has had to carry the burden of an under-performing defense on its shoulders.

Atlanta will be favored by four against the Carolina Panthers this weekend, but it seems like an awfully tough matchup for the Falcons. Carolina's rookie quarterback Cam Newton has been absolutely incredible to start his NFL career and should have a field day against Atlanta's meager secondary.

Despite being 1-4, the Panthers seem like a team that is only a player or two away from being a playoff contender. Carolina has remained within a touchdown of its opposition in each of its four losses and has just failed to make the one big play to win the game. The Falcons are reeling at this point, and the Panthers seem full of energy, so an upset win is perfectly conceivable.