NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

You’ll notice that the picks column is coming out a day early now, on Wednesday. There are a couple of reasons for that. First, I want you—the pro football enthusiast—to get a better understanding of who’s playing whom and how each team is expected to fare. But really, I had no idea that the lines came out so early in the week; I always thought they were released on Wednesday. Whoopsie!

Last week was a bad week for the Pick Against Josh set; I went 8-4-1 last week with my picks, leaving me at 35-37-5 on the year. With each passing week, I’ve picked more games correctly, but now we’re getting more serious. We only have one home underdog this weekend, and we have two teams facing double-digit spreads.

And did I actually pick a winless team to cover? It’s all here for your perusal, and this week we’ll mix it up and put the picks on slides. Tell me in the comments how you feel about that.

Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle and Tennessee are all off this weekend. Let's get to everyone else.

GREEN BAY -15 over St. Louis

This is a nutty game to start the week with. Fifteen points? But as long as they weren’t playing Detroit, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense haven’t had problems covering double-digit spreads. Only once have the Rams scored more than 14 points in a game this season, and having the extra bye week to prepare won’t make a difference here.

PITTSBURGH -12.5 over Jacksonville

This is all assuming Rashard Mendenhall plays; he sat out last week against Tennessee with a hamstring injury, and his team got away with it. I'll admit there is an argument to be made for Jonathan Dwyer, who managed a 100-yard game on just 11 carries last week, but Steelers need Mendenhall healthy and playing well.

What’s ironic is that Jacksonville actually beat those same Titans in Week 1, but the Jags really don’t have a chance to win here with rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert under center. They may be able to keep it close if Mendenhall sits.

WASHINGTON -1 over Philadelphia

If White Michael Vick were playing in this game, the Eagles would be five-point favorites. I just know it.

The Redskins are leading the NFC East but are sixth from the bottom in points scored (83). Mike Shanahan’s team has been getting it done with defense, and if you like the under at 47.5, you can get it done with defense too.

San Francisco +4.5 over DETROIT

People tend to make a lot over a West Coast team heading east and playing in an early game. I’d think that such a team would be happy about it, seeing as they can play and get back to their families at a decent hour. Eesh, maybe that’s why they hate it.

Carolina +4 over ATLANTA

I’ve given Tampa Bay a lot of grief for its 10 wins last year against a relatively easy schedule, so it’s only fair that I do same for the Falcons, who haven’t beaten anyone worth writing home about all season (including a 16-13 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 3).

Cam Newton is unquestionably the greatest 1-4 quarterback in the history of the NFL. But all of those losses were decided by seven points or less. Could this be the week that the Panthers break through?

Indianapolis +7 over CINCINNATI

I struggled with this one, but in the end I’ve chosen to defend picking a team that may or may not be trying to lose every game.

Curtis Painter actually played respectably against Kansas City at home last week (277 yards passing, two TDs, no turnovers), and the Bengals, despite being 3-2, only managed to beat Jacksonville—who should be starting Maurice Jones-Drew at quarterback—by 10 last week.

Look for the Colts to hang with the Bengals in a half-empty Paul Brown Stadium, and if you’re feeling frisky, you can take the under (40.5) as well.

Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK GIANTS

Before we jump on Vegas for not giving the Bills any love, bear in mind that the Bills have been favored twice in this young season—against the Raiders (-3.5) and Bengals (-3)—and failed to cover both times (won by three, lost by three). This banged-up Giants team doesn’t smell like a three-point favorite against a Bills team that’s forcing more than two turnovers per game.

And furthermore, Guy on a Buffalo!

BALTIMORE -7 over Houston

The Ravens have hit the over in all four games this year, and they’ll come off the bye weak against a Texans squad decimated by injury: Andre Johnson is still out with that hamstring issue, and Mario Williams has just been lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.

Wide receiver Derrick Mason will see his first action as a Houston Texan after coming south via the trade with the Jets. That’s great, but what about that defensive line?

OAKLAND -5.5 over Cleveland

Don’t let the Browns’ record at 2-2 fool you. They’re treading water against a relatively weak schedule, and they still haven’t played Jacksonville, St. Louis or Arizona. But the Browns play five of their last six games against division opponents, including two games each against the Ravens and Steelers. Oh, and Peyton Hillis missed a game earlier this season with strep throat after his agent told him to sit out.

This team is done. They just don’t know it yet.

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Dallas

This game features your largest total of the day at 54.5 and a Patriots defense that breaks out in a rash if it doesn’t give up 20 points in a game. Even with two weeks to prepare, and even with Dez Bryant returning to the lineup, Tony Romo will still continue to reinvent the art of the fourth-quarter choke job.

Honestly, Peyton Manning could have thrown for 200 touchdown passes this season, and it still wouldn’t be any more enjoyable than the season Romo is having.

New Orleans -4 over TAMPA BAY

One week after getting blown out at San Francisco, the Bucs are your only home ‘dog of the weekend. Tampa’s other games were quite close this year—all of those were decided by seven points or less—but don’t expect the Bucs to be able to hang with Drew Brees, who has completed 70 percent or more of his passes in the last four games.

Oh, and these teams play each other again in two weeks. I think a chimpanzee with a crayon made up the schedule this year.

CHICAGO Straight Up over Minnesota

When in doubt, bet on the team that’s not starting Donovan McNabb. Jay Cutler was borderline impressive in that Monday night game against Detroit in the first three quarters, but seriously, I’m sick of seeing the Monday night teams back on national television the following week.

NEW YORK JETS -7.5 over Miami

I’d love to say confidently, “Yes, the Jets will snap their three-game skid against the Dolphins on Monday night,” but Mark Sanchez will goose me on this game. I just know it.

Still, the Dolphins already are on their second quarterback in Matt Moore, who will benefit from having two weeks to get ready. I just can’t put my proverbial money on him, even though I hate this spread. The Jets are too good to be that bad.

Lines pulled from Statfox on Tuesday night.