Boise State vs. Colorado State Game Preview and Prediction

Saturday October 15th, 2011 is an historic day for the Boise State Broncos. 

It will be the first conference game for the Broncos as members of the Mountain West.  Of course, with all the talk lately of the Broncos possibly going elsewhere, namely to the Big East, I fear the gravity of this contest will somehow be overlooked.  

Overlooked or not, this game is another marker on the road of an amazing journey.  It is the journey of a true American underdog and its historic rise on the college football landscape.  It is the next step on the ladder of football success for Boise State University and its Bronco football team. 

So what can we expect in this contest?  How will the Broncos handle all the talk about conference swapping swirling around them?  How will the Rams of Colorado State match up with the Blue and Orange?

Well, let's take a look shall we...

The Venue: Hughes Stadium

The game will be played on the campus of Colorado State in Hughes Stadium, Fort Collins, CO.  The Rams will be wearing all white uniforms and the Broncos all blue. 

CSU is expecting the largest crowd they have seen at home yet this year, and the No. 5 Broncos are the highest ranked team to ever play at Fort Collins.  Not only that, but the Rams have distributed the largest number of credentials in the history of their University.  It sounds like it will be an amazing atmosphere come game time. 

At 5,003 feet of elevation, the stadium is about 2,300 feet higher than the Broncos' blue turf.  However, I really don't think that elevation will come into play.  The Broncos have never seemed to have problems playing in Laramie Wyoming, and that is about 4,400 feet higher than the Bronco Stadium. 

The Competition: The Colorado State Rams

The CSU Rams are currently 3-2 on the year.  Their wins are over New Mexico, Northern Colorado and Utah State.  The two losses on the year came at the hands of in-state rival Colorado (28-14) and WAC foe San Jose State (38-31). 

Both of the losses were games that could have been won.  The Rams had their opportunity to tie the game in the fourth quarter against the University of Colorado, but failed to do so.  Then Colorado went on a monstrous 16-play 85-yard drive that took 10:03 off the clock.  This put the Buffaloes up 28 to 14 and that was the final score. 

Against San Jose it was pretty much the same story.  But this time, the Rams were able to tie it up in the fourth quarter.  However, a late San Jose touchdown pass with just 54 seconds on the clock sealed CSU's fate. 

Both of these games could have been won by Colorado State, and had that happened they would be sitting at 5-0 instead of 3-2. 

The Matchup: BSU vs. CSU

How do the two teams match up? Well, let's just look at the basics...

Colorado State averages 221 passing yards per game, and 119 yards rushing.  They offense scores an average of 25 points per game, and the defense allows 24.

Boise State on the other hand averages 299 yards passing per game, and 151 yards rushing.  The offense is averaging 41 points per contest, and the defense is giving up just 15 points on average. 

Just those stats alone tell you that on paper the Broncos should win this game, but is there any reason that BSU wouldn't win? 

I can only think of one.  

The Reason the Broncos Could Lose: Themselves

The only reason the Broncos could lose this game is... the Broncos.  Last year in Reno, Boise State beat themselves.  They suffered a catastrophic let down in the second half in every area of the game, not just the kicking department.

That monumental collapse in Nevada probably serves as a healthy reminder that you can't let your guard down, even for one half of football. 

With all the hype surrounding the BCS rankings coming out, the talk of being invited to a BCS automatic qualifying conference and the rest of the country saying that BSU has no chance of losing this game, let's just hope the hype doesn't get the best of the Broncos. 

With Chris Petersen at the helm, I don't see that happening.  He has a knack for getting his team focused on the task at hand, and I think even he has learned from the lesson of Reno. 

The Conclusion

I have no doubt that Coach Chris Petersen will have his No. 5 Boise State Broncos ready for their first Mountain West Conference game. 

The Bronco offense led by senior quarterback Kellen Moore has become an amazing display of artful carving of opposition defenses.  This week should be no different.  Moore averages nine different targets per game, and with the addition of Geraldo Boldewijn at wide receiver, I don't see the offense slowing down.  If anything I expect it to be more potent this week.  

The running game seems to be getting its legs back after taking the first few weeks of the season off.  Doug Martin is back to form, and I don't see him letting down this week.  My guess is that Martin will have his best rushing game of the season against the Rams. 

The defense will be the defense.  Colorado State cannot match up physically with the much faster  Bronco defense.  This will be the best competition CSU has seen all year, but the same can't be said for Boise State.

On special teams I think BSU will continue to play solid.  I expect the field position game to be won by BSU, and like last week, I don't think we will see the opposing offense cross the 50-yard line more than a few times the entire game.

Overall, this game shouldn't be close.  Unless of course, Boise State decides to show up half hearted.  But, like I said before, I don't think Petersen will let that happen.  

Final prediction:  Boise State 49 Colorado State 10

I think the Rams picked the wrong week to wear white.