College Football Bowl Projections: How BCS Rankings Could Shake Up Bowl Picture

Even though the first official BCS rankings don’t come out until Sunday, it’s never too early to start trying to forecast what this season’s BCS bowl picture could look like.

Last year, we saw some major shakeups between the time the first BCS rankings were released and the end of the season. This year looks to be different, as the true power teams have already seemed to establish themselves.

This is one of those years that makes you wish that there was an Elite Eight-type of playoff system in college football, because there are a good number of top teams that look like they have what it takes to make a legitimate run to the big game.

We’ve still got a long way to go, and the rankings are bound to change in the second half of the season, but here’s a look at my early projections for the five BCS bowl games.

BCS Championship: LSU vs. Oklahoma

As it stands now, it appears that the winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game will meet the winner of the LSU-Alabama showdown in the national championship game, but as we know, things can always change.

If Oklahoma runs the table and survives the Bedlam game against Oklahoma State at the end of the year, the Sooners will have done enough to make it in over either a one-loss LSU team or a one-loss Alabama team. But if the Sooners slip up at some point, it will open the door for the teams behind them to jump up.

Oklahoma State still controls its destiny, and if the Cowboys manage to run the table and take down their in-state rival, they’ve got a great shot to make it to New Orleans.

The three dark horses are Wisconsin, Boise State and Stanford.

Because of their soft schedules, it’s going to be difficult for those three to do enough to overtake the Big Four: LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Wisconsin

If we’re going by tradition, then this one will feature the Pac-12 champs versus the Big Ten champs.

The Pac-12 seems to be a three-horse race, with Oregon and Stanford competing in the North to meet the South winner, which will likely be Arizona State, in the conference championship game.

The Big Ten race runs a bit deeper, though.

Wisconsin is the odds-on favorite, but teams like Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State and Michigan are all in the mix.

The most interesting possible matchup would be Stanford and Wisconsin.

It would be an absolute treat to see Andrew Luck battle it out with Russell Wilson in Pasadena.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon

It’s hard to predict a scenario for the Fiesta Bowl just yet, but at least one of the participants is likely to be the loser of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game, seeing as there has been a Big 12 representative in this game in four out of the last five years.

It’s still too early to figure out who they would face, though.

Boise State has certainly had a few memorable trips to the desert, and you also have to figure that bowl officials could be looking at the loser of the Stanford-Oregon game.

After taking a bad PR hit with the John Junker mess, Fiesta Bowl officials will look for a mega-matchup to restore some of the bowl’s credibility.

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Boise State

The Orange Bowl will likely feature the winner of the ACC against an at-large team.

The ACC race looks like it will come down to Clemson, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, with the Tigers holding the early advantage.

It’s hard to say right now who the winner of the conference could face, but if Boise State runs the table but gets shut out of the title game, the Broncos would certainly be one of the more attractive options out there.

Regardless of what you want to say about Chris Petersen’s team, they’ve proven that they can handle the big teams and that they can put on a great show on the big stage.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. West Virginia

The Sugar Bowl will likely be a bout between the loser of the LSU-Alabama game and the winner of the Big East.

West Virginia looks to be the favorite in the Big East conference, and I have to say, personally I would love to see what Dana Holgorsen, Geno Smith and the rest of the West Virginia offense could do against a defense like Alabama’s.

An LSU-West Virgina rematch could also be in play.

You also have to remember the letdown factor, like we saw when Alabama played Utah in the Sugar Bowl a few years ago.

You have to wonder how motivated the loser of the Alabama-LSU game will be to play in basically a consolation game.