San Francisco Giants: Ranking the Giants' Top 5 Arbitration Priorities

Ah, arbitration time is nearly upon us. It’s that gray area; the period between indentured servitude and free agency wherein a player’s opinion of a team – and the team’s opinion of each player – becomes clearer.

The San Francisco Giants have many players who are arbitration eligible but some, such as Jeff Keppinger and Jonathan Sanchez, may better serve as trade bait than as contributors to the 2012 team. The following players are arbitration eligible and, in my opinion, the most important players to “lock in” and “treat well.” Their retention is paramount if the Giants hope to mount a 2012 playoff campaign. 

Tim Lincecum

The San Francisco Giants without Tim Lincecum would be like South Park without Trey Parker (or, to keep things sports consistent, the Indianapolis Colts without Peyton Manning). He is the face of the franchise. Lincecum publicly stated his lack of interest in a long-term contract, so San Francisco would be wise to offer Lincecum a two-year deal that would take him up to free agency.

Lincecum last season posted some of his best numbers outside of the win/loss record, although he seemed to taper off substantially once the Giants began their free fall out of contention. Lincecum also failed to lead the league in strikeouts after leading the league for three consecutive seasons.

An improved lineup would likely result in a 20-win season for Lincecum, who has already proven his playoff mettle. But most importantly, the Giants must treat their ace well with their arbitration offer/contract extension. With a player like Lincecum who would prefer to negotiate small-term contracts, it will be essential to pay him like other premiere pitchers in the league (c.a. $20MM/year). 

Matt Cain

Matt Cain is a model of consistency. While Tim Lincecum has some “bad” starts, Cain has less starts that could be qualified as such. Even though Cain does not possess the “great stuff” of his long-haired counterpart, his ability to handle pressure and work deep into games is indispensable.

Matt Cain should be offered a major contract extension and be locked up for at least five years, probably in the neighborhood of $15MM per year. To get an idea of how much lack of run support affected Matt Cain, compare his numbers to Ian Kennedy. Their statistics in ERA, opponent’s batting average and innings are nearly identical. The strikeout numbers are reasonably close as well. Ian Kennedy was 21-4. Matt Cain was 12-11. 

Ryan Vogelsong

While Ryan Vogelsong will likely lose out on Comeback Player of the Year to Lance Berkman, nobody will ever make a movie about “Fat Elvis.” Heart-warming tale aside, Vogelsong was perhaps the best pitcher on the Giants. He led starting pitchers in both winning percentage and ERA.

The best thing about Ryan Vogelsong is that it probably won’t cost much money to lock him down. The Giants will certainly handsomely reward Vogelsong for his outstanding contributions this season. I predict that they will offer him a three to four-year contract extension worth around $5MM/year.

Vogelsong’s age precludes him from ever reaching Halladay/Lee type contract numbers, but he proved many times last season that he is able to command the strike zone with an array of pitches unsurpassed by any other starter on the team.

Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval a.k.a. the Kung Fu Panda, is the only arbitration-eligible position player who I believe the Giants would not be successful without. While Sandoval cannot be considered in the same conversation as Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp or other top hitters in the league, he certainly is an All-Star caliber hitter and a very good third baseman.

He also is valuable to the Giants in terms of marketing, with Panda hats selling like wildfire (does wildfire sell?) last season. While Sandoval will get a generous pay raise, he will not command an astronomical salary. The 2012 season will be Sandoval’s chance to establish himself as a premiere hitter. Without Sandoval, the previous three priorities will suffer from dismal run support yet again. He must return, and I predict that the Giants will treat him well. 

Sergio Romo

The fifth most important priority for the Giants is top-flight setup man Sergio Romo. I realize that Brian Wilson is the face of the Giants’ bullpen, and with good reason. His quirky personality and dramatic antics contribute much to San Francisco’s identity. But the best arm in the bullpen belongs to Sergio Romo, who has an “out pitch” rivaled only by Mariano Rivera in MLB.

Should any injury befall Brian Wilson, it might be wise to provide Romo with the opportunity to close games. Even if Santiago Casilla returns, Romo’s numbers still trump the impressive statistics of Casilla. Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt are both important pitchers and reliable arms coming out of the bullpen, but no arm is as valuable as Romo’s. And he will be in for quite a large payday.