Roger Federer: Which 2012 Grand Slam Is His Best Shot to Get a 17th Major?

Rohan SubraSenior Analyst IOctober 9, 2011

Roger Federer: Which 2012 Grand Slam Is His Best Shot to Get a 17th Major?

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    16 grand slam titles. 23 consecutive grand slam semifinals. 30 consecutive grand slam quarterfinals. 67 career singles titles. 237 consecutive weeks at number one. 285 weeks overall. Over 63 million dollars earned in his career. Olympic doubles gold medalist. 

    Put all of those things together and you might begin to comprehend the greatness of Swiss Maestro Roger Federer.

    After years and years of dominating the tennis world, Federer is finding himself third behind Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

    He hasn't won a grand slam since the 2010 Australian Open, and by next year's Aussie, it will have been two whole years without a slam for Roger—which, by his extremely high standards, is a huge amount of time.

    If he were to win a slam in 2012, which one will it be?

    I will try to answer that question in the following slides.

Australian Open

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    Times Won: Four

    Record at this Tournament: 59-8

    Federer has certainly done extremely well at previous Australian Opens, as he won four times in his career. He came very close in 2009, but was ousted in a fifth set against Rafael Nadal. In the Aussie Open of this year, Roger made a run to the semifinals, where he ended up losing to soon-to-be champion Novak Djokovic.

    Federer's game is very good for the surface at the Australian Open. It's a very neutral surface; it doesn't have the pace of Wimbledon (or the US Open), but it doesn't have the kick of Roland Garros.

    The Swiss Maestro is very well adjusted to this surface, because he can defend when he needs to defend and attack when he needs to attack. Also, were he to encounter Nadal once again, the Spaniard's spinning ball to Federer's backhand isn't as effective on this surface as it is on others.

    Chance of Winning (Out of 100): 20%

French Open

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    Times Won: One

    Record at this Tournament: 49-12

    At Roland Garros, Federer hasn't had the most ideal career by his standards. Though he has gotten to five finals, he has only won one here. He has a history of losing to Nadal in Paris, as Rafael beat him once in the 2005 semifinals, three times in the final between 2006 and 2008, and in this year's final, too.

    Out of all the grand slam surfaces, the dirt of Roland Garros is probably the worst one for Roger. He has had countless problems here in the past, and the two main reasons that Nadal has beaten him so many times here are the following:

    First of all, Nadal's topspin forehand kicks up very high to Federer's backhand. Also, Nadal is so good at getting every ball back that Federer eventually gets frustrated and misses.

    Chance of Winning (Out of 100): 10%

Wimbledon

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    Times Won: Six

    Record at this Tournament: 59-7

    Along with Bjorn Borg, Roger Federer is the King of Wimbledon.

    After winning five of them in a row between 2003 and 2007, he was extremely disappointed when Rafael Nadal edged him in the 2008 final, in what is considered by many to be the greatest tennis match of all time.

    The grass at the All-England Club is excellent for Federer's game. The surface permits Federer to attack constantly, and his dropshots—which he hits with feather-like touch—are outstanding, and die as soon as they hit the grass.

    Over the years, Roger has gotten accustomed to play on the surface at Wimbledon; some people have trouble with not slipping, but Federer moves amazingly.

    The only problem at Wimbledon is that hard-hitters can hit through him—like in this year's quarterfinals, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga repeatedly pounded the ball past him.

    Chance of Winning (Out of 100): 25%

US Open

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    Times Won: Five

    Record at this Tournament: 61-7

    Historically, this has been Federer's next best tournament after Wimbledon.

    Having won it five times, Federer has asserted his dominance and has compiled an astounding 61-7 record at Flushing Meadows. So many times we've seen Roger fall down on the hard court in a warm New York night, and it has truly been a spectacle.

    This surface is hard, like the Australian Open, and bears many similarities with the court of Melbourne. It's very neutral, and therefore Roger can both attack and defend.

    In both the semifinals of this year's and last year's US Open, Federer faced Novak Djokovic. Both times, the Swiss Maestro held two match points, but ended up losing the match—mainly because of Djokovic's guts, but partially because Roger choked.

    It's something that he was very disappointed with, but it shows that he still has it in him to get to the final.

    Chance of Winning (Out of 100): 35%

Conclusion

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    In short, Federer's biggest chance of winning is at the US Open. At Wimbledon, he has some chance simply because he is Roger Federer. 

    At the Australian Open, he does have a small chance, but it is unlikely. At the French, he stands virtually no chance, because Nadal and Djokovic are there.

    These are his highest chances of winning next year.

    But quite frankly, I don't think he can win a slam next year, or for the rest of his career.

    Please leave you comments and feedback.

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