Air Force vs. Notre Dame: Why the Triple Option Will Give Fighting Irish Fits

The Irish are just 2-4 in their last six meetings against teams that run the triple option.

Air Force’s lone loss was to TCU, in which they out-gained the Horned Frogs but had two costly fumbles that ultimately cost them the game.

Brian Kelly is 1-1 against the scheme, beating Army 27-3 at home but losing 35-17 to Navy on the road.

Defending the triple option requires defensive discipline and it helps to keep them off the field entirely because they will eat up clock. It is not as simple as defending a normal rushing attack and many times teams with good rush defenses can get beaten because they lose their gap control.

The stats and history of this game are inconclusive at best. In terms of the overall outcome of this game, Notre Dame should be considered the favorites because Air Force’s defense has fallen off drastically since the departure of coordinator Tim DeRuyter for Texas A&M.

But the Irish are 15-point favorites, and that just does not seem right. Air Force should keep this game close and possibly pull out the win if their offense puts on an efficient performance.

A major problem this year for both teams has been turnovers, and if the Falcons can hold onto the football—they’ve fumbled six times already, which is tied for 96th in the country—they will thoroughly dominate the time of possession. This would force Notre Dame either to be more efficient or to go for bigger plays, which could result in more turnovers.

Air Force is also coming off a big win at Navy, so they will have a lot of emotion and energy coming into this game.

Quarterback Tim Jefferson is in his fourth year running this offense, and he is now very comfortable doing so. Running back Asher Clark is averaging just under 100 yards per game and is on pace to gain more than the 1,081 yards he gained last year.

Notre Dame’s defense really came along at the end of the season, which is when they held Army to just three points, but it is hard to tell whether that was more Army being bad or the Irish being good.

If Air Force’s defense was better, Notre Dame would definitely be on upset alert. As their team currently looks, the Falcons should only pose a minor threat to the Irish.

But don’t be surprised if this becomes a close game decided by one possession.